fei
Senior Member
Posts: 604
Likes: 876
|
Post by fei on Sept 28, 2021 23:04:49 GMT 10
Coal price up almost 18% today USD $204/t. markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/coal-priceNatural gas went up 13.5% last night and another 6.5% today so far. tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gasUS natural gas futures jumped more than 30% to above $5.6 per million British thermal units in September, the highest since February of 2014, on prospects of supply constraints ahead of the winter, despite warm autumn weather. US production change averaged 46bcf per week in the summer, below 52bcf last year, amid uncertainties related to the pandemic. At the same time, inventories in Europe are at historically low levels for this time of year. In China, imports are almost the double from last year's levels and in Brazil, imports are also near record levels as the country faces its worst drought in 91 years, hurting hydropower output.Europe going into a cold winter, China now in city and state wide blackout with lack of electricity. This disaster is going nuclear and much faster than the 1070's energy crisis, which I by the way have memory of those years. Have taken a days leave on Friday to top up personal fuel supplies and get to Costco that just opened up nearby in Lack Macquarie. The blackouts in China are mainly only on industry at the moment, although estimates are that up to 40% of manufacturers have been impacted. Not many residential areas have been affected, but residents in affected cities have have kicked up enough fuss that the central government has taken notice and demanded an explanation from local governments. Of course, it is the central government's need to save face for the upcoming Cop26 meeting in Glasgow and pollution control for the February 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics that have caused or at least exacerbated the problems. I guess the main takeaway for non-Chinese is that this will provide another shock to supply chains, because the manufacturers being effected range from everything from big expensive tech and electronic products to toys, shoes, clothing and basic textiles.
|
|
fei
Senior Member
Posts: 604
Likes: 876
|
Post by fei on Sept 28, 2021 22:50:14 GMT 10
Don't forget it was the wharfies that sabotaged war materials getting loaded in Aust during ww2 over pay disputes even in the 40's We are planning on having a quiet Xmas this year and won't be spending upon any major purchases so hopefully, we won't be too affected by the shipping issues. It's best time of the year for the wharfies to call strike action though, as the bosses will be wanting a very quick end to the industrial action to get the business going. I'm surprised that the fair work commission allowed them to strike 3 days per week for such an essential industry. Yes Google that for an eye watering story if anyone is interested! My grandfather witnessed it! I went to school with a kid whose family were all either dockworkers or seafarers. His father and grandfather were merchant mariners, and grandfather's brother and his sons were wharfies. At school one day he was telling us that even in then (1990s), his grandfather refused to have anything to do with his brother because while one was risking his life taking Australian supplies around the world in WW2, the other was leading strikes and refusing to load/unload ships in order to get pay rises.
|
|
fei
Senior Member
Posts: 604
Likes: 876
|
Post by fei on Mar 26, 2021 17:50:10 GMT 10
Please please go away ! The influx of metro****s is doing nothing but destroy how we and our kids and our grandkids live! If you do move here then leave your progressive politic shite behind and learn to live how the locals have lived happily and sustainably for generations! Take note starting at 00.59 "If you are a willing worker" laughing my arse off! They only want to work on their gay laptops from home they don't want a rural job that actually contributes in a tangible, material way to a regional community! Up here if you can "work from home" then that's not a real job! Mate, I don't think I'm anything like a metrosexual, but are now trying to make a living working from home on my laptop! I lost my job of twenty years recently (was expecting a gold watch, instead got the arse), and are relying on whatever piecemeal freelance consulting work I can pick up. Unfortunately the supply of unemployed experienced white collars workers is pretty high worldwide though, so the companies are happy to parcel out their work to anyone around the world under the guise of the gig economy. I am doing some research and planning for projects I hope to get up and running once Aus lets us expats back in though. Really looking forward to setting up back in Aus with a real job that will hopefully also employ a few other people too.
|
|
fei
Senior Member
Posts: 604
Likes: 876
|
Post by fei on Mar 25, 2021 12:48:57 GMT 10
Of course, that's the way they do things! First provide what the small country needs (vaccines, roads, ports whatever), then remind them later that they owe a favour or two....or else.
|
|
fei
Senior Member
Posts: 604
Likes: 876
|
Post by fei on Mar 20, 2021 23:00:20 GMT 10
Collapse related stuff is popping pop in more and more mainstream websites, although maybe more in the US than Aus. I dunno if it's because the US is further down the road to collapse, or just because the consequences of COVID, economic downturn etc are more pronounced there and people are thinking about it more?
|
|
fei
Senior Member
Posts: 604
Likes: 876
|
Post by fei on Mar 20, 2021 15:53:24 GMT 10
Singapore has an effective national service scheme. All males do two years in the army / police / civil defence forces starting between 18 and 20 years of age, then yearly training as reserves up to age 40 for other ranks and 50 for officers. My former boss was an officer, but left Singapore in his mid-twenties, did plenty of boozing and partying for years. He got quite a shock when he returned a couple of years ago in his early forties and had to get into shape again asap.
It was only recently that I realised sons of expat permanent residents also have to do national service if remaining in Singapore. I reckon there would have to be quite a few Aussie and pommy expats who would have served.
|
|
fei
Senior Member
Posts: 604
Likes: 876
|
Post by fei on Mar 20, 2021 15:21:54 GMT 10
One of their volcanoes that has been dormant for 6,000 years just erupted. Looks like its fairly small for now, so hopefully not too much damage.
|
|
fei
Senior Member
Posts: 604
Likes: 876
|
Post by fei on Mar 20, 2021 15:14:51 GMT 10
China's one child policy has seriously damaged their economic power. Nobody wants their little emperor working in a sweatshop for peanuts. Yep, although they may have to if the economy keeps stagnating. There was lots of publicity last year about uni grads only able to get work as takeaway food delivery guys (basically the local version of the barista with a masters degree). Then again, one of the main reasons the factories moved overseas was because workers were getting too expensive. The days of people working for a dollar an hour are long gone, plus the central government now oversees the superannuation schemes, so companies not paying into it get big fines (many companies never bothered to pay tax, pension, medicare etc for their workers).
|
|
fei
Senior Member
Posts: 604
Likes: 876
|
Post by fei on Mar 10, 2021 19:34:17 GMT 10
I've noticed a lot of electronic goods are now coming from SE asian countries besides China. Vietnam seems to be the standout. Agree that customer service does not exist post-purchase for any industrial goods...but they'll line up to sell you a replacement. Have had this argument many times with the 'cheapest is best' types at my company. The racism endemic in China is something that Australia's snowflakes could not understand and would choose to ignore if confronted with it. From my experience, westerners are seen as some sort of idiotic cash cow that keeps coming back for more. Would never eat something from there, knowing the attitudes of the people who made it. Unknowingly having chinese products sneak it's way into something I bought is one thing, going out an knowingly consuming something from there is another. One of my former colleagues works for a China-based but UK-owned company that produces apparel for many of the big European and US brands. The company had around 400 factories of varying sizes in China ten years ago, but over the past decade has closed them all down and moved to facilities in Vietnam, Myanmar (Burma), Bangladesh, Cambodia and a couple of African countries due to the spiralling costs in China. Was talking to her the other day after not speaking for a year or so. Seems COVID has tolled the death knell for their factories in Africa, the coup has done in their Myanmar factories and some other issues in Bangladesh. They are now moving all production to Vietnam and Cambodia, with all main HQ functions pretty much all moved from China down to Vietnam. This lady has also been working in China for twenty years off and on, and says Vietnam is basically where China was around the early to mid-2000s...all the big brands are doing their manufacturing there now; the government is very cooperative with foreign investors; the people are happy to be working (obviously for a low wage) and the expat staff happy to be getting "hardship allowances" although living in nice accommodation.
|
|
fei
Senior Member
Posts: 604
Likes: 876
|
Post by fei on Mar 8, 2021 18:09:29 GMT 10
Chinese metallurgical technology also isn't up to the wests standard, their castings are porous, poor quality machine tools (or worn out tools and the she'll be right mate attitude, its only the Commo Govt we are working for so why bother.). By all means lets not confuse ourselves with the facts. The technology is probably up to standard, but the factory staff and management are always under pressure to cut costs, so use low quality materials and cut corners wherever possible. Thinking is always along the lines of making as much money as possible in the shortest time possible, so no resources are put into things like after-sales service or trying to ensure that products last long. Many manufacturers also think that the "stupid foreign buyers" will not notice poor quality though, but just keep going back to them for more replacement stock. No wonder that many of them have gone bust over the past few years since people realised they can get the same low quality products but at lower prices and with less political BS from other countries in Southeast Asia!
|
|
fei
Senior Member
Posts: 604
Likes: 876
|
Post by fei on Feb 8, 2021 17:06:00 GMT 10
Fei, on the news this morning they said that the military coup in Burma was being described in China as a 'cabinet reshuffle'. Is this accurate? TBH, I rarely read the Chinese news and only watch it if my in-laws happen to have the TV on (we rarely watch TV)! I just had a look at the most popular search engine's news feed, and they are reporting as a "coup" or "military intervention", although it may have been reported otherwise a few days ago. Was surprised that there are also lots of reports about the protests, which tells me that China must be ambivalent or against the coup (if they supported it, protests would not be reported).
|
|
fei
Senior Member
Posts: 604
Likes: 876
|
Post by fei on Feb 6, 2021 18:03:59 GMT 10
Meanwhile CGTN is on free to air television in Australia. It's in mandarin with no subtitles, so as usual it's an effort at 'reminding' expat chinese that they still need to toe the line with beijing, whilst not letting anyone else know what is being said. It's on SBS which means that your taxes are paying to broadcast CCP propaganda. There are also Mandarin radio channels, which re-broadcast programs straight from China. Was supposed to hear one in Perth a few years ago -- driving along fiddling with the radio and a broadcast of Chinese news straight from Beijing came on.
|
|
fei
Senior Member
Posts: 604
Likes: 876
|
Post by fei on Feb 1, 2021 14:13:32 GMT 10
There's already discussions from the NYSE about monitoring online 'chatter' when it is linked to stockmarket 'abnormalities'. In English, if this happens again, the 1% will freeze trading on the stock to prevent them from losing money. Wall street only operates when it makes the 'right' people money. "Monitoring online chatter" is how the feds phrase its when talking about monitoring terrorists. I guess that's how the TPTB see these "little guys" who have banded together to jack up Gamestop. I guess it'll be fine as long as they only concentrate on one or two stocks, but if they start playing with a whole lot of stocks and start getting too many pieces of the pie, then LE will come down hard and start locking people up (regardless if any laws have been broken).
|
|
fei
Senior Member
Posts: 604
Likes: 876
|
Post by fei on Jan 29, 2021 23:07:03 GMT 10
Used to be more countries than that, but China gave a lot of small countries low interest or interest free loans, on the condition that they stop recognising Taiwan.
|
|
fei
Senior Member
Posts: 604
Likes: 876
|
Post by fei on Jan 27, 2021 13:33:04 GMT 10
I absolutely agree with the 'you have to die sometime' mentality. The most stoic and bad-assed folks to survive in horrible situations seem to have the one foot before the other thing on lockdown. Breaking things into small steps, and then doing that one step. And then deciding the next step. And doing that step. Those with anxiety or similar other difficulties like PTSD etc. that are good at managing them usually are all over the baby steps system. Don't look at the whole chunk, because the whole chunk will quickly overwhelm. Find small achievable goals to move on with until you find yourself suddenly half way through something that you would think was impossible if you looked at the big picture. Mindset is the biggest part of survival in my books. No good having a year's supply of water and food if you've already decided you're going to die the second the power goes out rofl. My in-laws grew up in a time of chaos and overwhelming austerity, which we nowadays would probably equate with a SHTF situation. They never talk about it, but the one thing that has been passed down is that you can only rely on family. Family always comes first and you should always do what you can for family. Bugger everyone else outside the family unit. Couple that with eat every bit of food you can get your hands on, because you don't know when your next meal is, and sleep whenever you can because you don't know when you'll be forced to change your routines. Seems to have got them through it ok, however the subsequent years of plenty were the undoing for many in their generation, who have never got accustomed to not stuffing their faces at every meal and following rules that maintain a civil society. Having said that, certain younger members of the family are addicted to their mobile phones and on-demand movies and shopping delivery, and tend to get mighty ornery when those things aren't available. Things get pretty tense already when the oldies are around and the youngers ignore them for their 24/7 phone addictions. I can't imagine the tensions that would happen when going cold turkey. (I guess the need to find / forage / prepare / cook / defend food may take minds off their phones though)
|
|
fei
Senior Member
Posts: 604
Likes: 876
|
Post by fei on Jan 12, 2021 20:54:15 GMT 10
Social media is basically the modern STASI. A massive surveillance operation with the ability to make dissidents 'disappear.' Certainly in electronic terms at the current time and possibly, soon, physical terms as well! I foresee new laws in the not too distant future that make owning and carrying a 'smart phone' with you everywhere, all the time, mandatory. And it will, of course, be implemented as a 'safety measure' for our own good. Quite possibly related to Covid management now that that particular juicy 'threat' has dropped into the laps of security/control minded legislators. Already pretty much in place in China. They've just started checking the personal QR health codes again this week. Don't have a phone, then can't get on public transport, into shopping centres etc.
|
|
fei
Senior Member
Posts: 604
Likes: 876
|
Post by fei on Jan 5, 2021 22:00:52 GMT 10
Our winter started late but with a vengeance. Have been having temps hovering around 0 - 2 degrees max for the past ten days or so. Went away on a work trip and asked the rest of the fam to look after all the plants on the balcony. Come back to find most have died of cold, with the one tomato plant that didn't start fruiting until winter but then churning out heaps of toms having keeled over too. Have moved smaller plants inside and plastic wrapped / bagged the larger ones, but I think the next few days of sub-zero temps will probably finish most of them off.
|
|
fei
Senior Member
Posts: 604
Likes: 876
|
Post by fei on Dec 23, 2020 0:09:24 GMT 10
I worked out a while back that the Aussie beef we used to buy from our local supermarket was one of Gina's brands. Its not been available for quite a while though, so maybe even she is on the nose with the Chinese government. Then again, was checking out the local big name supermarket yesterday and was surprised to find a range of Australian pasta sauces, as well as some Woolworths home brand baking goods. I wonder if that means the retail cooperation we have been hearing is on the cards for the past few years has finally happened?
|
|
fei
Senior Member
Posts: 604
Likes: 876
|
Post by fei on Dec 22, 2020 20:28:04 GMT 10
I reckon I've read that the coal we send them is 'high grade' metallurical coal. Not just any old shitty thermal coal for power generation? Also ... even if a lot of that 295 million imported coal IS thermal ... that's a hell of a lot of coal to do without! A 10% reduction in generation capacity is massive. Yip, I have worked in coal in South Africa, Mongolia and Australia. Australian coal in good quality with low sulfur content. Sulfur affects metal quality in coake ovens, and big impact on air quality when burnt for electrical generation. Well ha ha China now has an energy shortage and slowing down production due to lack of coal. ?? Such bad management would never work in a democracy... www.zerohedge.com/economics/china-restricts-electricity-use-amid-coal-shortageA lot of coal mines in Australia now belong to Chinese owned companies like Yancoal, who have a hiring freeze on some of their mines. - I wonder what they think of the coal embargo.... Exactly! The Chinese government just wants to hurt Aus and figures stopping all the main imports will do it. We ordered a couple of bottles of vitamins from Aus in early November. Finally arrived the other day after about 5 weeks shipping time. Obviously lots of issues with logistics now due to covid, but the shipper also said all vitamins from Australia are being inspected by Chinese Customs now. I'm wondering if they were eventually allowed in because the producer is now Chinese owned? I wonder what happens if iron ore shipments are stalled? Which side would Gina Rhinehart and Twiggy Forrest stand on?
|
|
fei
Senior Member
Posts: 604
Likes: 876
|
Post by fei on Dec 15, 2020 13:37:04 GMT 10
"A person is incapable of being chosen or of sitting as a Member of the House of Representatives if the person: is a subject or citizen of a foreign power or is under an acknowledgment of allegiance, obedience or adherence to a foreign power;" Membership of the CCP would, I expect, be evidence of allegiance to a foreign power. Yep, which is why I wondered about a certain senator from a few years ago when all that foreign parents stuff came out last year. Seeing as you practically can't leave the party when you're in China, I wondered what documents he had to prove it. Just innuendo and supposition on my part...I'm sure the alphabet agencies did their homework.
|
|