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Post by Deleted on Feb 29, 2016 9:46:02 GMT 10
Reality Check
Please Note:OK, Before anyone reads this I mean no disrespect to anyone! These are my thoughts!
After reading an interesting book on prepping and thinking long and hard, I realise that we need to "KISS" (Keep it simple stupid). We look at prepping as an insurance policy, and rightly so.
We look at different scenarios and think what if's!!! The reality check for me is that I need to look at simple preps and simple scenarios! Because reality and what may or may not happen is never etched in stone, but fluid! Meaning it may be some thing Catastrophic or simple with long lasting effects and ripples that may or may not lead to catastrophic.
I am not a super soldier and on our own may or may not be-able to defend against a few armed hungry people or a gang! I don't have 1ton of ammo or assault weapons and would not be able to fight trained enemy! In my mind I may be fearless and can leap tall building in a single bound, but reality check says my back is stuffed and even if I tried to leave with my expensive BOB with all the modern and practical gear, it's too heavy to travel long distances! We have all the gear But...
So what should I do
For us I need to put more caches in place, even if this means hidden beyond our boundary! So I don't have to carry excess amounts of gear! That takes care of an emergency BO!
Now, the Wife!!! You have to love em!!! We have a comfortable home, but there are always extra's... So after a little argument...(You guys know what I mean...lol)(and that look!!!)
Grabbing my Balls, I said "We can't eat a F'in house, pool or shit!!!! We need to increase our food and supplies and stock to allow us to live, we can finish and buy extra later! "But what if nothing happens" who gives a shit, we will then have plenty...better to have and not need than to need and not have!!!! I still have my balls, just!!!
My point was that the cash we have put away for food is or will be useless if something happens! We need to get the food we planned for and get it into storage! Same for fuel and ammo and necessary stuff, because I don't want to wipe my bum with grass or news paper unless I really have to!
We are blessed that we have retired to our BOL, and that's why we moved to the country and rented before we bought our place to make sure the wife was going to be happy!
I spent time with a friend who like us lives out of town, he has land as well, and lives in a very simple shed! He is on the dole (nothing wrong with that) but he never has more than a weeks worth of food on hand! He thinks he will grow veggies and shoot to survive! as most people think. Then we talked about what will happen if his veggies don't yield and he can't get more seeds! and he has 500 rounds of ammo and thinks he can hunt etc...
Even after I explained how cheap it was to have enough food stored and what he need to buy, he has done nothing!!! "You can lead a horse to water,but you can't make it drink!"
Simple Scenario:
You wake up to news that Iran and Israel have Nuck'ed each other!!! Unrest in the middle east escalates. China and Russia use a Gold standard to block US Dollars for oil!, US shuts it's boarders and won't buy oil for a Gold standard!! (because they don't have enough)
Oil prices at the pumps in Australia hit $10-12 lt. The Government says all will be OK, but with in 4-6 weeks say's, as we have no reserves or way to refine any oil that we have!!! The Government in it's wisdom, to be able to protect Australians is keeping all the fuel for essential serves !
No servo has fuel to sell!!! Food can't be delivered, power restrictions, water restrictions are put in place....But wait....it will get worse!
Preppers Solution:
This is where you come up with what YOU will do, and decided if your preps at present will do or should you have more!!!! What other problems do you need to solve before this happens! and after if you can!
Lets all look at our "Preparedness" pull it to pieces and make sure it will work! A simple scenario like this may play out over weeks or months or even a year or more!! This is the sneaky one that will test your resolve and is more likely to happen over an "EMP or CME" The scenario could have been monetary collapse over a few months but the result will be the same!!!
Another sobering thought, is that you may have gear and preps coming out you wazoo but you can't get to them or you are injured... The mind boggles with what if's. But that is the plight of the prepper!
Still better than the UN-peppered!
Gaz.
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Ammo9
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Post by Ammo9 on Feb 29, 2016 14:51:22 GMT 10
Well I might be out of a job, or maybe not.
I would probably endure huge struggles. With no fuel, no deliveries of food would reach stores. Even farmers would be unable to function or distribute anything they could bring in to the masses.
Commercial fuel stores, if not empty, would be attacked by gangs to sell on the black market. Emergency services, if they had fuel to respond to anything, would be a target for thieves or robbers.
In your fuelless scenario, society has (at my best guess) 1 week between no available civilian fuel and complete anarchy.
I'm not sure if I'm better in Mildura or if I should return to Melbourne.
Before all civilian fuel is gone, I'd try hoard a fee jerries of diesel and as many bottles of LPG as I could.
If possible, I'd hit up small business food wholesalers eg. theres a pizza store supplier I know with probably 100 pallets of flour(labeled mainly as pizza base flour but is there mich difference?), canned vegetables and sauces, cheeses, drinks, etc and see what deal I can get on a pallet of flour and a pallet of canned veges..
Other than that, without a BOL or any decent area to grow land... probably bunker down at the family home in the burbs and await the chaos.
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Post by Peter on Feb 29, 2016 15:01:44 GMT 10
If possible, I'd hit up small business food wholesalers eg. theres a pizza store supplier I know with probably 100 pallets of flour(labeled mainly as pizza base flour but is there mich difference?), canned vegetables and sauces, cheeses, drinks, etc and see what deal I can get on a pallet of flour and a pallet of canned veges.. This makes me think that making diesel fuel from used frying oil would be a useful skill in this situation. |
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Frank
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Post by Frank on Feb 29, 2016 15:13:32 GMT 10
Thanks for the Reality Check Gaz, these sort of scenarios tend to get the mind going that is for sure.
For a long term issues such as the one you suggest, I am under no illusion to think I am well prepared for something like that. We are slowly improving and would probably fare better then the average Joe on the street, but it would be a huge change of lifestyle and one that would take time to adjust to (if you ever did). We have some food stored and the ability to grow abit, but not enough at the moment. Also no livestock (and I don't intend to get any in the foreseeable future) means we would be hunting and bartering what we can.
In a scenario like you mention, our security measures would be need to be increased aswell; theft rates would go through the roof, maybe not crazy riots and looting (at first) but general burglaries etc.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 29, 2016 15:32:31 GMT 10
If possible, I'd hit up small business food wholesalers eg. theres a pizza store supplier I know with probably 100 pallets of flour(labeled mainly as pizza base flour but is there mich difference?), canned vegetables and sauces, cheeses, drinks, etc and see what deal I can get on a pallet of flour and a pallet of canned veges.. This makes me think that making diesel fuel from used frying oil would be a useful skill in this situation. You are right Pete! as long as it is liquid oil and not a solid you can basically just filter it through toilet paper rolls and use it, but turbo diesels may not like it! The problem being in this scenario and other scenarios is that you would not be able to get the oil as most places would be closed! Having a good fuel supply for Bugging out and a little extra for a chain saw!!! is all you need at home. If you have a BOL you can have more fuel there! Even treated fuel may last up to two years. For our diesel I am going to get a large tank of Kerosene, as kero is an oil it will last 30years or more! and you just mix it with mineral oil to make diesel. And a still to make ethanol for the rest! |
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shinester
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Post by shinester on Mar 1, 2016 15:09:41 GMT 10
Reality Check
Please Note:OK, Before anyone reads this I mean no disrespect to anyone! These are my thoughts!
After reading an interesting book on prepping and thinking long and hard, I realise that we need to "KISS" (Keep it simple stupid). We look at prepping as an insurance policy, and rightly so.
We look at different scenarios and think what if's!!! The reality check for me is that I need to look at simple preps and simple scenarios! Because reality and what may or may not happen is never etched in stone, but fluid! Meaning it may be some thing Catastrophic or simple with long lasting effects and ripples that may or may not lead to catastrophic.
I am not a super soldier and on our own may or may not be-able to defend against a few armed hungry people or a gang! I don't have 1ton of ammo or assault weapons and would not be able to fight trained enemy! In my mind I may be fearless and can leap tall building in a single bound, but reality check says my back is stuffed and even if I tried to leave with my expensive BOB with all the modern and practical gear, it's too heavy to travel long distances! We have all the gear But...
So what should I do
Great stuff [as usual]. Obviously testing out things helps us check our reality versus ego. Eg. I ran around playing a simulated event recently which taught me all about my exaggeration of fitness expectations. I used to be very fit, though it's been 5 years since I was there. The scenerio also put me in a realistic situation with kit. Could I hold off 3 attackers for long by myself? No way. I already knew that. They would also have surprise, I might be out of position, though I would probably know my own terrain better than they do.
Indeed. I'm personally working on it, I'm trying to figure out the cheapest, full KJ/nutrition foods that last almost forever and I won't care about being buried and never dug up. I've got the staple sorted [sprouted wheat, no need to mill and sprouting increases some vitamins] and I'm trying to figure out a suitable companion that also lasts indefinitely [balanced of amino acids and vitamins], as well as ghee and some salt. Certainly not fun food, but if I'm bugging out, things are REAL bad at that point, any food will be good. If you've been hungry, really hungry, you'll know what I mean.
Men biologically are more attune to potential danger, we have had to be, as we protect the eggs of the tribe [women]. There's also the R versus K reproductive strategy argument, that is some of us are more R inclined that is like rabits and like rabbits think that there's always plenty of grass. Then there's the K, like the wolf, they're always planning for the future, burring bones and limbs for a later meal. Men are more inclined to be K than R. [though its a bell curve, so absolutely could be either, just look around in society, we're mostly R currently, thanks to 2 world wars killing off a lot of Ks]
Makes sense.
Your friend is most likely 'R' in his mindset, lots of grass to eat, nothing to worry about, there's more grass just there... Its a way to be happy I suppose. He's also in a delusion of his position. He's not taking care of himself [on the dole] and if that money dried up [it will at some point in the future] then he's screwed really screwed. What would you do? We are mostly from a group of people who 'had' to save and store enough during the good months for winter. The people, the Rs who didn't prepare for winter often died. 15% of the population of Europe died of starvation before modern times as an example. Is winter coming? I don't know, but preppers are getting ready in case it does come.
=================
...... at which point even my wife knows we're all 'fraked'
If the fuel supply is that fundamentally gone and not coming through as a drip for food supply, let alone the need to keep the farm tractors going, then it's apparant that this is full tilt boggie. I would have already tried to work with the community, there's a good chance, assuming enough base food can be had, that the area I'm in can feed and defend itself with the number of people and the number of farms in all directions. Those farms will need people to replace the now useless tractors and they will also need security to keep what they have and keep people in all directions from taking what is there. If community attempts failed or looked like they would fail, then I would implement one of my bug out plans as being around a bunch of people I don't know who are hungry is going to get REALLY bad and REALLY quickly.
I'll assume that I'm bugging out, and I'm bugging out a bit before the food and fuel runs out. The problem here would be the dangers of bugging out, the initial panic is over but perhaps someone wants to get my fuel so they can get somewhere else and stops the car, or tries to kill me for it? Some real issues with this, though in this kind of slow decline it's hard not to stand out, hard to be a grey man. I could ride a bike, I could take a very long walk with little I suppose.
Location 1. Has friends who have equipment, space and supplies, I would bring more than I need with me if I could. If I couldn't then hopefully my skills and hard work would earn me meals to keep me going. Wif
Location 2. Unsupplied, though rural and somewhat self sufficent community.
Location 3. Live like Gollum. Unsupplied. Taking what I can carry, live 'dark' that is disappear and live on caches' I've got the location and the plan for that worked out, unfortuantely they're not supplied yet as I'm finalizing the details of said cache. Finding someone who you don't know is there, who makes little [to no] noise, doesn't move around much, makes no smoke in the middle of a forest isn't impossible to find, just very hard to. This may be the best option.
In all options, those who we know and can make, come to the same location, strength comes from numbers.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2016 19:37:55 GMT 10
Reality Check
Please Note:OK, Before anyone reads this I mean no disrespect to anyone! These are my thoughts!
After reading an interesting book on prepping and thinking long and hard, I realise that we need to "KISS" (Keep it simple stupid). We look at prepping as an insurance policy, and rightly so.
We look at different scenarios and think what if's!!! The reality check for me is that I need to look at simple preps and simple scenarios! Because reality and what may or may not happen is never etched in stone, but fluid! Meaning it may be some thing Catastrophic or simple with long lasting effects and ripples that may or may not lead to catastrophic.
I am not a super soldier and on our own may or may not be-able to defend against a few armed hungry people or a gang! I don't have 1ton of ammo or assault weapons and would not be able to fight trained enemy! In my mind I may be fearless and can leap tall building in a single bound, but reality check says my back is stuffed and even if I tried to leave with my expensive BOB with all the modern and practical gear, it's too heavy to travel long distances! We have all the gear But...
So what should I do
Great stuff [as usual]. Obviously testing out things helps us check our reality versus ego. Eg. I ran around playing a simulated event recently which taught me all about my exaggeration of fitness expectations. I used to be very fit, though it's been 5 years since I was there. The scenerio also put me in a realistic situation with kit. Could I hold off 3 attackers for long by myself? No way. I already knew that. They would also have surprise, I might be out of position, though I would probably know my own terrain better than they do.
Indeed. I'm personally working on it, I'm trying to figure out the cheapest, full KJ/nutrition foods that last almost forever and I won't care about being buried and never dug up. I've got the staple sorted [sprouted wheat, no need to mill and sprouting increases some vitamins] and I'm trying to figure out a suitable companion that also lasts indefinitely [balanced of amino acids and vitamins], as well as ghee and some salt. Certainly not fun food, but if I'm bugging out, things are REAL bad at that point, any food will be good. If you've been hungry, really hungry, you'll know what I mean.
Men biologically are more attune to potential danger, we have had to be, as we protect the eggs of the tribe [women]. There's also the R versus K reproductive strategy argument, that is some of us are more R inclined that is like rabits and like rabbits think that there's always plenty of grass. Then there's the K, like the wolf, they're always planning for the future, burring bones and limbs for a later meal. Men are more inclined to be K than R. [though its a bell curve, so absolutely could be either, just look around in society, we're mostly R currently, thanks to 2 world wars killing off a lot of Ks]
Makes sense.
Your friend is most likely 'R' in his mindset, lots of grass to eat, nothing to worry about, there's more grass just there... Its a way to be happy I suppose. He's also in a delusion of his position. He's not taking care of himself [on the dole] and if that money dried up [it will at some point in the future] then he's screwed really screwed. What would you do? We are mostly from a group of people who 'had' to save and store enough during the good months for winter. The people, the Rs who didn't prepare for winter often died. 15% of the population of Europe died of starvation before modern times as an example. Is winter coming? I don't know, but preppers are getting ready in case it does come.
=================
...... at which point even my wife knows we're all 'fraked'
If the fuel supply is that fundamentally gone and not coming through as a drip for food supply, let alone the need to keep the farm tractors going, then it's apparant that this is full tilt boggie. I would have already tried to work with the community, there's a good chance, assuming enough base food can be had, that the area I'm in can feed and defend itself with the number of people and the number of farms in all directions. Those farms will need people to replace the now useless tractors and they will also need security to keep what they have and keep people in all directions from taking what is there. If community attempts failed or looked like they would fail, then I would implement one of my bug out plans as being around a bunch of people I don't know who are hungry is going to get REALLY bad and REALLY quickly.
I'll assume that I'm bugging out, and I'm bugging out a bit before the food and fuel runs out. The problem here would be the dangers of bugging out, the initial panic is over but perhaps someone wants to get my fuel so they can get somewhere else and stops the car, or tries to kill me for it? Some real issues with this, though in this kind of slow decline it's hard not to stand out, hard to be a grey man. I could ride a bike, I could take a very long walk with little I suppose.
Location 1. Has friends who have equipment, space and supplies, I would bring more than I need with me if I could. If I couldn't then hopefully my skills and hard work would earn me meals to keep me going. Wif
Location 2. Unsupplied, though rural and somewhat self sufficent community.
Location 3. Live like Gollum. Unsupplied. Taking what I can carry, live 'dark' that is disappear and live on caches' I've got the location and the plan for that worked out, unfortuantely they're not supplied yet as I'm finalizing the details of said cache. Finding someone who you don't know is there, who makes little [to no] noise, doesn't move around much, makes no smoke in the middle of a forest isn't impossible to find, just very hard to. This may be the best option.
In all options, those who we know and can make, come to the same location, strength comes from numbers.
Shinster, I will suggest Buckwheat, Spelt(Ancient wheat), beans and lentils, along with rice to put in Mylar bags for your caches! Buckwheat alone has all 6 amino acids that make a protein as well as carbs and other nutrients! All have long life and if Mylared with O2 absorbents can give you 30 years +++ |
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Post by SA Hunter on Mar 1, 2016 21:41:55 GMT 10
Nice thought provoking thread Dr Gaz!
Thanks.
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krull68
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Post by krull68 on Mar 1, 2016 22:00:53 GMT 10
The wife and I have been looking at this situation, because there is so much that can go wrong, so we are working on:
7 years max.
Completely off grid, fuels out of stock.
So we are working on:
complete 1700's far outback living.
7 years of firewood.
wood fire for cooking, water heating.
seeds for rotation planting, 15 years worth.
Friends with meat animals.
Keeping a very low profile.
We won't live in mansions and eat like kings, but we won't be starving peasants either.
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shinester
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Post by shinester on Mar 2, 2016 0:00:30 GMT 10
Ahhh, I didn't mention I'm trying to sprout them, which saves on having a mill. This is particularly important for some scenarios where I'll want to be going dark, aka no smell, smoke etc. Lentils are 85% viable for 2-3 years apparently, which is why I'm looking at other options. I'm guessing buckwheat will be like other basic grains and last a lifetime. Will check all of your suggestions out, thanks.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 2, 2016 7:09:37 GMT 10
Ahhh, I didn't mention I'm trying to sprout them, which saves on having a mill. This is particularly important for some scenarios where I'll want to be going dark, aka no smell, smoke etc. Lentils are 85% viable for 2-3 years apparently, which is why I'm looking at other options. I'm guessing buckwheat will be like other basic grains and last a lifetime. Will check all of your suggestions out, thanks. Just my thoughts again: We have 2 mills, one is hand cranked the other electric. The beauty of having a mill is not just for bread, you can mill beans and lentils for soups, rice for baking etc, and nuts etc. Going dark is fine but eventually it would be nice to cook hot food! Just saying  |
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VegHead
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Post by VegHead on Mar 2, 2016 7:11:20 GMT 10
Here's some of my current Buckwheat being used as a cover crop and for 'clucker-tucker'. I currently have about 50 sqm of it growing and the whole plant is edible which makes it great. From seed to flower is about 4 weeks and 8-12 weeks for the grain heads.  |
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shinester
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Post by shinester on Mar 2, 2016 16:22:05 GMT 10
Oh sure on the hot food and I've got tons [most] of my food needs heating and cooking.
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Post by thereth on Mar 2, 2016 21:12:01 GMT 10
Here's some of my current Buckwheat being used as a cover crop and for 'clucker-tucker'. I currently have about 50 sqm of it growing and the whole plant is edible which makes it great. From seed to flower is about 4 weeks and 8-12 weeks for the grain heads. Hey Veg, Do you buy you Buckwheat from anywhere in particular? The only place I can find it is at those hippy natural food places and I am not sure if those are growable |
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VegHead
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Post by VegHead on Mar 3, 2016 7:45:55 GMT 10
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2016 18:48:34 GMT 10
Awesome post Gaz, and one that you and i, back in the day have discussed many a time.
Currently, and bluntly...im dusted. Apart from my personal skills, some weaponry and what little i do have, i cant see past a 12 to 18 month (maybe less) point should it be worst case.
I know what i can and cant do but in a loose/loose situation, one would always push that little bit more. Me being that person. Scary to think.
I have little currently in the way of preps other than what i have stated above. Weaponry and skill sets. Coming from someone that had every gizmo, gadget and supply that most would have once been envious of, to a marriage breakdown, loss of job and little to no current preps its definitely a scary thought.
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Post by SA Hunter on Mar 8, 2016 21:45:22 GMT 10
Here's some of my current Buckwheat being used as a cover crop and for 'clucker-tucker'. I currently have about 50 sqm of it growing and the whole plant is edible which makes it great. From seed to flower is about 4 weeks and 8-12 weeks for the grain heads. Nice - I LOVE Buckwheat - is it any good as a crop to use as a 'dig in' before I plants seedlings crop??? How much seed do you get from the 50sqm? |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2016 5:33:08 GMT 10
Awesome post Gaz, and one that you and i, back in the day have discussed many a time. Currently, and bluntly...im dusted. Apart from my personal skills, some weaponry and what little i do have, i cant see past a 12 to 18 month (maybe less) point should it be worst case. I know what i can and cant do but in a loose/loose situation, one would always push that little bit more. Me being that person. Scary to think. I have little currently in the way of preps other than what i have stated above. Weaponry and skill sets. Coming from someone that had every gizmo, gadget and supply that most would have once been envious of, to a marriage breakdown, loss of job and little to no current preps its definitely a scary thought. Don't you worry Aus, you know you can come to us and be part of our family! |
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Post by Joey on Mar 9, 2016 6:06:21 GMT 10
Without fuel, the power will soon cutout.
As the power stations will not be able to receive their coal supplies as the mines won't be able to dig without fuel.
Unless the government pulls their finger out and starts replacing the coal plants with nuclear or thorium reactors. But even then, they will only last so long as no fuel to supply the delivery trucks that bring the core fuel to the plants.
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VegHead
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Post by VegHead on Mar 9, 2016 7:45:46 GMT 10
Here's some of my current Buckwheat being used as a cover crop and for 'clucker-tucker'. I currently have about 50 sqm of it growing and the whole plant is edible which makes it great. From seed to flower is about 4 weeks and 8-12 weeks for the grain heads. Nice - I LOVE Buckwheat - is it any good as a crop to use as a 'dig in' before I plants seedlings crop??? How much seed do you get from the 50sqm? It is a very good cover crop. It does not add nitrogen to the soil, however it shades out almost every weed, is a bee attractant and is a good bio-mass accumulator. Dig it in around flowering but well before seeds develop. I couldn't begin to tell you how much seed is obtainable as all my buckwheat is for the chooks and cover cropping. I will be growing for seed next season however so we'll see then what the yields could be. |
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