tactile
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Post by tactile on Sept 21, 2022 20:39:58 GMT 10
Putin turns up the heat in latest speech to the nation. Ordering "Partial Mobilisation". Extra million troops on the way and telling NATO no more weapons or we'll use Nukes.
Who's gonna win the stare down?
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Tim Horton
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Post by Tim Horton on Sept 22, 2022 2:19:21 GMT 10
Putin turns up the heat in latest speech to the nation. Ordering "Partial Mobilisation". Extra million troops on the way and telling NATO no more weapons or we'll use Nukes. Who's gonna win the stare down? 2022-09-21... 08;30 Pacific Daylight Time... Just got this news third hand from a young guy who is quite on top of events.. Going to be a tough winter it seems.. |
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norseman
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Post by norseman on Sept 22, 2022 5:05:56 GMT 10
Putin turns up the heat in latest speech to the nation. Ordering "Partial Mobilisation". Extra million troops on the way and telling NATO no more weapons or we'll use Nukes. Who's gonna win the stare down? Either Putin gets taken out by his own people or he wins! Putin is a whatever it takes type bloke, at the end of the day he doesn't know what lose means! |
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tactile
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Post by tactile on Sept 22, 2022 8:02:06 GMT 10
Putin turns up the heat in latest speech to the nation. Ordering "Partial Mobilisation". Extra million troops on the way and telling NATO no more weapons or we'll use Nukes. Who's gonna win the stare down? Either Putin gets taken out by his own people or he wins! Putin is a whatever it takes type bloke, at the end of the day he doesn't know what lose means! The only Russians IMO that would take him out are the other ex-KGB cronies that are around him...which is still very possible. It would take a lot to get your average Russian to do anything. Most are either drunks, weak or both.
Looks like my YouTube interpretation was a bit optimistic last night after Putin's speech too...it's more like 300000 troops? That's barely enough to rotate what they have in the field now.
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bushdoc2
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Post by bushdoc2 on Sept 22, 2022 9:24:53 GMT 10
Those other conflicts are not necessarily new and I do wonder where 'rumours' come from and whom 'rumours' benefit. I don't believe those countries see Russia as weak. However some countries may start to believe they can win a war against Russia if, and only if they have western backing. " It would take a lot to get your average Russian to do anything. Most are either drunks, weak or both." Maybe, but there are plenty of serious blokes who would do well at Camp Carnage etc, but love their country and believe the ant-Western propaganda, even the bits that aren't true.
Maggie didn't need to retake the Falklands, but failure to do so would be seen as dangerously weak in the 80s, when plenty of small proxy wars were being fought.
Ditto Putin and his gains/losses so far.
"I just fought Mike Tyson" he said, lying flatly.
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bug
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Post by bug on Sept 22, 2022 9:43:39 GMT 10
Putin turns up the heat in latest speech to the nation. Ordering "Partial Mobilisation". Extra million troops on the way and telling NATO no more weapons or we'll use Nukes. Who's gonna win the stare down? Either Putin gets taken out by his own people or he wins! Putin is a whatever it takes type bloke, at the end of the day he doesn't know what lose means! Yeah agreed. It's easy to ignore it when it's happening overseas and only a small contingent of the Russian military is actually fighting, but when most of the population ends up with a family member or friend being conscripted and sent to a pointless conflict that is being lost, leadership can change rapidly. |
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bug
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Post by bug on Sept 22, 2022 9:45:23 GMT 10
" It would take a lot to get your average Russian to do anything. Most are either drunks, weak or both."
There were some Germans who thought that a while back. Didn't end well for them.
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norseman
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Post by norseman on Sept 22, 2022 9:52:51 GMT 10
I'm thinking more like a military led coup maybe?
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bug
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Post by bug on Sept 22, 2022 9:55:38 GMT 10
I'm thinking more like a military led coup maybe? Fair chance. Let's not forget that the Russian military was lied to and have suffered more than any other group. They were told they were going on excersizes, then wound up invading a country that many of them would have had ties to. Surely there were some at the top who knew what was going to happen, but not many. |
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Sept 22, 2022 10:24:45 GMT 10
Putin mobilises 300,000 reserves. Riots break out and ques at the Georgia border of people leaving the country.
In the vid below at 10:16 he shows a Russian advert where they will come to you house and break your arm for 1,500 rubbles, so you wont be drafted to serve in the military...
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tactile
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Post by tactile on Sept 22, 2022 10:47:11 GMT 10
" It would take a lot to get your average Russian to do anything. Most are either drunks, weak or both." There were some Germans who thought that a while back. Didn't end well for them. And look what it took for Stalin to make them fight...he had to line up NKVD behind them and shoot them if they retreated. Putin has nothing of similar ilk and hasn't got the time to organise it. Stalin had a huge fighting age man excess within the Soviet empire...that empire is gone and the fighting age demographic Putin has now is not good and of poor quality. |
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Tim Horton
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Post by Tim Horton on Sept 22, 2022 14:30:51 GMT 10
The last Russian revolution was 1917 or so....
You think that kind of inside thing could happen again ?? ??
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tactile
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Post by tactile on Sept 22, 2022 15:32:03 GMT 10
The last Russian revolution was 1917 or so.... You think that kind of inside thing could happen again ?? ?? I have no idea.
I'll take a guess though. I reckon the Oligarchs will get together and sponsor one of the inside ex-KGB guys to take out Putin. Same as always in Russia, it will be about greed & power (same all over the place I guess), the money men will throw up a few billion for a puppet leadership and everything will go back to normal for 20 years until it all happens again over there!
Just a guess...I hope this happens anyway. Not good for the Russian people but they don't want to rise up and do it for themselves so what can you do?
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Post by spinifex on Sept 22, 2022 18:22:48 GMT 10
Gotta doubt Vlad will resort to trying Nukes.
Soon as he does that ... he's over as a world leader. He'd be signing a global death warrant for himself. No-one would take him in to shield him from a war crimes trial with a rope for him to dangle on at the end of proceedings.
Be interesting to see if he can achieve a full Russian mobilization to bring full conventional might to his ill-conceived military adventure.
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bushdoc2
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Post by bushdoc2 on Sept 22, 2022 20:21:11 GMT 10
The last Russian revolution was 1917 or so.... You think that kind of inside thing could happen again ?? ?? Happened twice in 5 months. May revolution: out with the Tsar.
Doors to parliament (winter palace) left unguarded, (why guard them, we represent the people...?) so...
October revolution: Bolsheviks* storm* winter palace and kick out democratic government.
*Bolshevik (from "bolshoi" = big) = "majority", self-annointed name, a bit like "democrats" or "people's republic". *No need to storm unguarded palace, they just walked in the front door, but the footage of propaganda shows brave bolshies storming the building.
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Sept 23, 2022 8:12:23 GMT 10
Gotta doubt Vlad will resort to trying Nukes.
Soon as he does that ... he's over as a world leader. He'd be signing a global death warrant for himself. No-one would take him in to shield him from a war crimes trial with a rope for him to dangle on at the end of proceedings.
Be interesting to see if he can achieve a full Russian mobilization to bring full conventional might to his ill-conceived military adventure.
Putin is running out of military hardware, they have had substantial losses. Russians purchasing ammunition's from N.Korea. US, UK, Germany have low munitions stocks as well especially anti tank and aircraft launches. Poland and surrounding counties donated all out of date ex soviet weapons, British sent out of date tanks, even the Australian Bushmaster vehicles are now busy been replaced so sent 40 of the older version to Ukraine. Putting more men when the war is an artillery and drone punch up, will not achieve much. Western artillery is more accurate and has a longer range. There is a big restriction on sale of computer chips to Russia so rebuilding modern weapon systems is problematic for them. What has me amazed is the ineffectiveness of Russian air force and navy. Other than use of Drones it is WW1 type fighting with cannons and trenches. WW2 with aerial bombardment rapid tank and troop movement was key. When global economy fails and no one is in a position to help Ukraine it will get very messy, then China will invade Taiwan. |
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malewithatail
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Post by malewithatail on Sept 23, 2022 8:58:01 GMT 10
"What has me amazed is the ineffectiveness of Russian air force and navy. Other than use of Drones it is WW1 type fighting with cannons and trenches. "
I read somewhere that at the start of WW2, A German soldier saw the American automatic weapons, and at the time, Germany only had WW1 single shot bolt actions and saying "we've lost". Russia may be the same,`but Putin hasn't realized it yet. Sure, he could throw a temper tantrum and chuck a nuke or two around, but that would be the end of Russia and probably 90 % of the world.
The pandemic represents a rare but narrow window of opporunity to reflect, reimagune and rest our world - Klaus Schwab.
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bug
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Post by bug on Sept 23, 2022 9:34:42 GMT 10
A potentially greater threat is the breakup of Russia if Putin is overthrown. You're going to see various separatist movements start up. The CCP no doubt will try to take advantage of this and sign some 'agreements' with potential new governments. The CCP already took territory off Tajikstan this way without a shot being fired. Not port access, not a military base, the border itself got moved after a successful 'debt trap' operation by the CCP.
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norseman
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Post by norseman on Sept 23, 2022 10:12:30 GMT 10
Either Putin is taken out (multiple possibilities) or he goes full retard, he's got nothing to lose with the second option, I warned of this on here from the start. I hope I'm wrong on this but even Jordan Petersen (love him or hate him) seems to agree with me! Posted on SKY just yesterday:-
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tactile
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Post by tactile on Sept 23, 2022 10:56:06 GMT 10
I have liked most of Peterson's work but I'm trying to get my head around his view of Putin.
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