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Post by nerdrage88 on Jan 1, 2014 21:57:17 GMT 10
Again, another informative video I watch daily, just to keep an eye out for another 'Carrington' style event... Nerd
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Post by nerdrage88 on Jan 2, 2014 22:22:10 GMT 10
Last night we had an M9.9 Flare from the sun with a CME being released. Nothing really to fear, but I just wanted to point this NEW big sunspot out to people as it rounds the corner. The magnetic complexity of this SS is of concern (as well as the size)...check it out'
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Post by nerdrage88 on Jan 3, 2014 8:46:03 GMT 10
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Post by nerdrage88 on Jan 4, 2014 8:27:29 GMT 10
SPACE WEATHER NOAA Forecasts Updated at: 2014 Jan 03 2200 UTC FLARE 0-24 hr 24-48 hr CLASS M 75 % 75 % CLASS X 30 % 30 % spaceweather.com/Another M1.1 Flare, this new sunspot (designated AR1944) looks like it may hold some flare potential...
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overlord
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Post by overlord on Jan 4, 2014 16:43:45 GMT 10
nerdrage88, this is the link I use to monitor Solar Activity: www.tesis.lebedev.ru/en/sun_flares.htmlAfter a fellow prepper here in the Philippines introduced me to the concept of the Solar Flares and CMEs issues, I did some searching and found that and a lot of documents on that topic. I even have a Solar Flare Impact Study written in 2007 from a scientist from one of the US universities. C and M class flares are not much of a concern. When it hits the X-class levels, that is when we should be concerned. In May last year, we had as high as X3.2 flares. I wrote about it in one of the Prepper sites. Typhoon Yolanda (International Name: Haiyan) had a similar set of Solar Flares during its onslaught. Also, when we were hit by a 7.2 earthquake in October last year, there was a flurry of Solar Flares. CMEs should also be a major concern since this can also cause major damage to our infrastructure.
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Post by nerdrage88 on Jan 4, 2014 18:20:42 GMT 10
agree completely Overlord! I follow the solar activity daily mate, and I too have the Impact Study written about the effect on the American grid. I have followed solar activity for at least 4 years, and in that time have seen some doozies...my concern is with another "Carrington" event. An event like this will cause problems the globe over, not just the U.S of A. The real concern is 'back to back" CME's. Clearing the path for the following flares which will drop our magnetosphere protection to nothing and letting the grids take all the damage. At least in Australia the effects wont be as bad as somewhere like the U.S, but still potentially bad..
My concern is that if the U.S grid, Europe or Asia's grids go down (such as in American Blackout), many nuclear power plants will have trouble shutting down in time before a meltdown, and hence, another Fukushima on a massive scale... so while im not too worried about an M or C class flare, the resulting CME (if there is one), its speed, and also if its 'piggy-backing' other CME's is what I watch for...as well as the 'Stand-off' distance of our magnetosphere etc. Thanks for the comment mate
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overlord
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Post by overlord on Jan 4, 2014 19:05:13 GMT 10
So far the CMEs have not hit us as a barrage and usually these flares have been in areas of the sun that were facing away from earth.
Whatever we felt during these recent times were basically radiated effects of these flares.
With the way the Ozone layer is getting depleted and the shift in poles (it is estimated that Magnetic North is now located within the old Soviet Union and the speed of the shift has increased), we can expect to feel a major impact within the next few years.
My other point of concern and research is the impact of SF with respect to the earth's mantle and core. There are discussions (and debates) on this issue in the scientific community. I am a believer that it does affect the earth's mantle and core resulting in earthquakes and volcanic activity plus the pulses are sure to affect even the weather patterns.
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Post by nerdrage88 on Jan 5, 2014 9:10:40 GMT 10
So far the CMEs have not hit us as a barrage and usually these flares have been in areas of the sun that were facing away from earth. Whatever we felt during these recent times were basically radiated effects of these flares. With the way the Ozone layer is getting depleted and the shift in poles (it is estimated that Magnetic North is now located within the old Soviet Union and the speed of the shift has increased), we can expect to feel a major impact within the next few years. My other point of concern and research is the impact of SF with respect to the earth's mantle and core. There are discussions (and debates) on this issue in the scientific community. I am a believer that it does affect the earth's mantle and core resulting in earthquakes and volcanic activity plus the pulses are sure to affect even the weather patterns. I agree completely mate. I have had this discussion on numerous occasions, and with very intelligent people, but they all agree....at this time there is NO direct connection visible through evidence, that the sun effects the earth in ANY way what-so-ever........(methinks BULLSHITE). I believe that the sun effects the earth in many ways, and I agree that from the evidence I have, it appears that the sun can have a direct effect on subduction zones/plates, and cause large earthquakes.....
on a side-note, shes going off ('ol Sunspot (SS) 1944)...Produced an LDE (long duration event) M4 flare...(im still checking on if there was a CME), followed by another LDE M2...ish flare from a departing sunspot...1944 should be Geo-effective in a couple of days... (check it out here- www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html )
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Post by nerdrage88 on Jan 5, 2014 9:13:27 GMT 10
A cool video showing this monster SS is clearly naked-eye visible (don't look directly at the sun kiddies )
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Post by nerdrage88 on Jan 5, 2014 9:37:17 GMT 10
Attachments:
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Post by nerdrage88 on Jan 7, 2014 10:13:59 GMT 10
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Post by nerdrage88 on Jan 8, 2014 1:17:56 GMT 10
Impulsive M7.7 Flare today... Attachments:
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Post by nerdrage88 on Jan 8, 2014 3:32:03 GMT 10
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Post by nerdrage88 on Jan 8, 2014 7:54:33 GMT 10
we have had an X1.2 Flare overnight....nothing normally to worry about, but its velocity appears to be very fast, and may pick up the M4 flare we had earlier, may lead to some amazing lights, communications interference in about 2 days...
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Post by nerdrage88 on Jan 8, 2014 11:32:06 GMT 10
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wolfstar
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Post by wolfstar on Jan 8, 2014 11:48:13 GMT 10
Funny that, i was only just asking a friend what she thought of it, if it was anything to worry about. All i can say is im glad i live in aus, we are far less dependant on nuclear power. What i do find funny though is how few people in cities these days realise that you dont need power to heat and cook for yourself *facepalm*
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Post by nerdrage88 on Jan 10, 2014 2:51:59 GMT 10
Funny that, i was only just asking a friend what she thought of it, if it was anything to worry about. All i can say is im glad i live in aus, we are far less dependant on nuclear power. What i do find funny though is how few people in cities these days realise that you dont need power to heat and cook for yourself *facepalm* we got EXTREMELY lucky that there was no follow-up large CME after the X1...that thing was REALLY booking along at around 2000kms/second...if we had of had another large CME after that, we may have had another Carrington event... I actually got a 'doom-woody' for a moment there ...nah it actually scared the shit outta me. Thinking and preparing for such an event is one thing, but to actually have be in a situation where-in it may actually happen....made me realise that I aint prepared enough.....always things still to do.
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Post by nerdrage88 on Jan 10, 2014 2:54:07 GMT 10
solar activity has quietened down...sitting at roughly B9 level. It appears that the Xflare took all the energy out of the big sunspot 1944....mind you- the magnetic connection between the earth and sun is about to be reached, and any CME's/Flares in the next 24hrs will hit earth right in the face...
www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html
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Post by nerdrage88 on Jan 10, 2014 4:32:28 GMT 10
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wolfstar
Senior Member
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Post by wolfstar on Jan 10, 2014 10:17:08 GMT 10
Idk, frankly i think americans and many city dwellers are too reliant on power. Even as far as food is concerned. "Oh no, how will i eat and stay warm without a microwave and radiator/heaters???" Lol, i hate to say it but it might do well to thin the dumbassery from the genepool....
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