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Post by spinifex on Nov 24, 2017 11:37:49 GMT 10
I spend a lot of time studying the oil industry. Looks like high probability of steep price rises in near future (also steep falls at some later time). It seems probable that Saudi Arabia has lost it's legendary ability to be the swing producer that fine tunes global supply and demand and thus ... pricing. Having your own 'strategic reserve' of fuel at home is going to make more sense with each passing month. Stockpile at lower prices ... use it up at high prices. Be aware of the laws regarding bulk fuel storage at home if you live in an urban setting.
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blueshoes
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Post by blueshoes on Nov 24, 2017 14:31:58 GMT 10
Does anyone have a link to readable or straightforward info on home fuel storage?
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paranoia
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Post by paranoia on Nov 24, 2017 14:39:33 GMT 10
No link but it's fairly straight forward unless you're storing 1000s of liters.
Buy jerry cans, keep in the shade, rotate every 12 months.
I've seen a good system where someone had 12 jerry cans, each with a month written on the can. On the first of every month they dumped that jerry into their tank and filled it up again, good for another year... Gives you 240L storage and a good rotation system.
I personally don't store more than about 50L and rotate through that just with generators, mower, brush cutter and chainsaw...
You can get additives and such for longer storage but rotation is really the best way.
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Nov 24, 2017 15:00:52 GMT 10
There have huge oil and gas discoveries - the idea of peak oil where the world runs out of oil is no longer a reality for the next 100years, electric cars are also now being developed and produced by very many companies and some countries are looking at outlawing liquid fuel vehicles.
Yeah war in Asia which is a likely scenario could easily overnight bring on a fuel shortage. Having some fuel stored is a necessity for emergencies, esp if you work or stay far from your bug in/out location.
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Beno
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Post by Beno on Nov 24, 2017 15:07:48 GMT 10
www.safework.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/50729/storage-handling-dangerous-goods-1354.pdfthis is the go to guide for dangerous goods (including ammo and bulk fuel) in nsw. look up safework vic,qld etc for your relevant state. I use 60litre oil drums for bulk storage. they are tough, i can lift them easily and move them quickly if i need too. the 200 L drums are good if you don't intend to move if shtf. just ask old mate at your local mechanic as they are usually keen to off load them
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Beno
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Post by Beno on Nov 24, 2017 15:11:42 GMT 10
There have huge oil and gas discoveries - the idea of peak oil where the world runs out of oil is no longer a reality for the next 100years, electric cars are also now being developed and produced by very many companies and some countries are looking at outlawing liquid fuel vehicles. Yeah war in Asia which is a likely scenario could easily overnight bring on a fuel shortage. Having some fuel stored is a necessity for emergencies, esp if you work or stay far from your bug in/out location. totally agree. hybrids and ev will replace oil before the oil runs out. oil prices will rise in the future cause people won't want it anymore even for plastics.
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Post by Joey on Nov 24, 2017 17:42:27 GMT 10
I just took a couple of my empty jerries out today to top up for a trip this weekend, I looked inside and found a small patch of black crud in the bottom. Could of been diesel algae or could of just been a bit of Weipa bulldust that got in them on my way back from Weipa the other month. Either way I poured some fresh in and gave it a good shake up to loosen up all the shit and tipped it out. If storing fuel for long times don't forget to pour in some stabilizer to stop the algae and other stuff.
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Post by selfsufficient on Nov 24, 2017 23:27:30 GMT 10
Just remember petroleum products have many uses besides being just a fuel. Even in fuel you have diesel that is used for transport logistics, mining and construction industries, aviation keroscene for all the jets. Heating fuel for Northern latitudes, Bitumen for roads. Another source is raw stock for the chemical industry which helps to make batteries. Energy is the soul of the economy, cheap energy means you have prosperity. All you need to do is look at countries that dont have an energy abundance.
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Post by SA Hunter on Nov 25, 2017 18:51:34 GMT 10
I only have 2 jerry cans with fuel stored - I also have the additives - they say they are good for 24 months, but I'll change them after 12 months. I worked out with the generator that if I run it flat out, I will go through a jerry can every 18-24 hrs. I did read, that to keep food frozen, run the generator for 1 hour every four hours. this will stretch out the fuel supply as well.
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Post by graynomad on Nov 25, 2017 21:18:40 GMT 10
It's hard to imagine why you would ever run a gennie flat out for any length of time, so the fuel should be good for a lot longer.
True about turning off the freezer, when camping in the 4x4 we turn it off all night with no obvious effect to the contents.
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Post by spinifex on Nov 26, 2017 7:45:42 GMT 10
I only have 2 jerry cans with fuel stored - I also have the additives - they say they are good for 24 months, but I'll change them after 12 months. I worked out with the generator that if I run it flat out, I will go through a jerry can every 18-24 hrs. I did read, that to keep food frozen, run the generator for 1 hour every four hours. this will stretch out the fuel supply as well. During the 3 day blackout I ran genset morning and evening for a few hours and everything in freezers and fridges stayed good. (I put a remote thermo sensor in kitchen fridge to keep an eye on temps.)
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Post by spinifex on Nov 26, 2017 8:19:04 GMT 10
There have huge oil and gas discoveries - the idea of peak oil where the world runs out of oil is no longer a reality for the next 100years, electric cars are also now being developed and produced by very many companies and some countries are looking at outlawing liquid fuel vehicles. Yeah war in Asia which is a likely scenario could easily overnight bring on a fuel shortage. Having some fuel stored is a necessity for emergencies, esp if you work or stay far from your bug in/out location. This has nothing to do with 'peak oil'. This is to do with tuning supply and demand and the unique position and role Saudi Arabias super giant oil fields have in the global market. Don't confuse 'peak oil' with fundamental economics of the worlds most traded commodity and the technics of oil production and refining. Also these 'huge discoveries' you refer to are unconventional oils (canadian tar sands and US shale oil and Venezuelan tar sands) that are very expensive to recover and wreck the environment in the process. The reason the Saudi's may have lost their ability to swing to the up-side of output is that they may have been over-producing in recent years to try push crude prices low enough for long enough to damage the higher cost oil shale and tar sands industries. Another possible reason is that the US has been leaning on them to push crude price down to try and damage Russian economy by ruducing oil revenues (oil being probably its biggest foreign currency earner). To up output, the saudis inject seawater into their super giant oil fields ... in the past they have overdone it and ended up recovering oil with a much higher water fraction than normal. When that happens their refineries struggle to keep up with cutting the water back out again. Refined product output drops. Prices rise ... for a while. Anyone who wants to learn more Should beg, borrow or buy a copy of 'Twighlight in the Desert' by Matthew Simmons - 2005. The idea that running out of oil will drive the price of crude and thus fuels, sky high is also false. What will ultimately happen (and did in 2008-9) is that entire national economies slow down at high oil prices, disposable incomes drop, people and industries use much less fuel, crude inventories rise and the price declines back to the level that is affordable in the shrunken economy. (Note: this has dire ramifications for producers trying to sell high cost shale and tar sand oil) What's actually likely to happen is that fuel remains unaffordable even as the price drops because the economy can no longer support the price. This is very deflationary on the entire global economy. It's also not a steady linear decline. There is likely to be lots of ups and downs. As for electric cars ... that has its own set of resource and scalability problems. (Simmons covers them in his book.) The future has waaaaay less private car ownership in it. It will possibly be rich in electrified rail, mopeds and bicycles. It'll be a slow decline to get there; but get there we will.
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fei
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Post by fei on Nov 27, 2017 11:15:27 GMT 10
There are also no transparent figures about how much oil the Saudis have. Their so-called "proven reserves" are stated as being about the same amount now as they were 20 years ago, despite the fact they have been pumping 10 million barrels per day. www.thenational.ae/business/just-how-big-are-saudi-arabia-s-oil-reserves-really-1.168833The fact that their state-owned oil company Aramco is looking to list on the New York stock exchange has been fueling lots of rumours that their reserves are way less than they say too (otherwise why the need for money from an IPO), meanwhile the prospectus that was prepared for listing also didn't provide solid figures about reserves, future drilling rates etc. Will be interesting to see what happens with the heir to the throne having just imprisoned hundreds of princes and bureaucrats in the oil industry for corruption too. This is also being seen as a way for the government to claw back billions of dollars, which leads to questions about why they suddenly need to do this if their future earnings from oil are so good?
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Nov 27, 2017 16:46:23 GMT 10
There are also no transparent figures about how much oil the Saudis have. Their so-called "proven reserves" are stated as being about the same amount now as they were 20 years ago, despite the fact they have been pumping 10 million barrels per day. www.thenational.ae/business/just-how-big-are-saudi-arabia-s-oil-reserves-really-1.168833The fact that their state-owned oil company Aramco is looking to list on the New York stock exchange has been fueling lots of rumours that their reserves are way less than they say too (otherwise why the need for money from an IPO), meanwhile the prospectus that was prepared for listing also didn't provide solid figures about reserves, future drilling rates etc. Will be interesting to see what happens with the heir to the throne having just imprisoned hundreds of princes and bureaucrats in the oil industry for corruption too. This is also being seen as a way for the government to claw back billions of dollars, which leads to questions about why they suddenly need to do this if their future earnings from oil are so good? Saudi Arabia is a kingom with no democracy up till now they pay zero tax and got good gov benefits and plenty of bogus well paying jobs. That has all crashed as the oil price drop since 2008. Saudi Arabia is now also broke and borrowing money to survive as income from oil revenue is down due to oil price and US oil shale production. Their expenditure is more than their income, and due to military issues they are also now the worlds largest importer of arms... Yeah Saudi oil reserves are not confirmed but they need an oil price of $100.. So arrested all the royalty on corruption charges and for billions of dollars in donations they are being freed. Many experts are now saying the crown prince has gone to far and made to many enemies esp with military generals so things are very volatile and there is no money.....
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Post by spinifex on Nov 27, 2017 18:23:43 GMT 10
There are also no transparent figures about how much oil the Saudis have. Their so-called "proven reserves" are stated as being about the same amount now as they were 20 years ago, despite the fact they have been pumping 10 million barrels per day. www.thenational.ae/business/just-how-big-are-saudi-arabia-s-oil-reserves-really-1.168833The fact that their state-owned oil company Aramco is looking to list on the New York stock exchange has been fueling lots of rumours that their reserves are way less than they say too (otherwise why the need for money from an IPO), meanwhile the prospectus that was prepared for listing also didn't provide solid figures about reserves, future drilling rates etc. Will be interesting to see what happens with the heir to the throne having just imprisoned hundreds of princes and bureaucrats in the oil industry for corruption too. This is also being seen as a way for the government to claw back billions of dollars, which leads to questions about why they suddenly need to do this if their future earnings from oil are so good? Yes indeed Fei. When you look at all the parts of the puzzle it smacks of KSA being in significant oil difficulties. Also note the ever closer relations between Russia, China and Iran. These players are making alternative arrangements for oil supply and economic stability. Russia and Iran still have good reserves of cheaper conventional oil and they may have no desire to sell it in the ways the global market is used to.
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Post by spinifex on Nov 27, 2017 18:40:58 GMT 10
There are also no transparent figures about how much oil the Saudis have. Their so-called "proven reserves" are stated as being about the same amount now as they were 20 years ago, despite the fact they have been pumping 10 million barrels per day. www.thenational.ae/business/just-how-big-are-saudi-arabia-s-oil-reserves-really-1.168833The fact that their state-owned oil company Aramco is looking to list on the New York stock exchange has been fueling lots of rumours that their reserves are way less than they say too (otherwise why the need for money from an IPO), meanwhile the prospectus that was prepared for listing also didn't provide solid figures about reserves, future drilling rates etc. Will be interesting to see what happens with the heir to the throne having just imprisoned hundreds of princes and bureaucrats in the oil industry for corruption too. This is also being seen as a way for the government to claw back billions of dollars, which leads to questions about why they suddenly need to do this if their future earnings from oil are so good? Saudi Arabia is a kingom with no democracy up till now they pay zero tax and got good gov benefits and plenty of bogus well paying jobs. That has all crashed as the oil price drop since 2008. Saudi Arabia is now also broke and borrowing money to survive as income from oil revenue is down due to oil price and US oil shale production. Their expenditure is more than their income, and due to military issues they are also now the worlds largest importer of arms... Yeah Saudi oil reserves are not confirmed but they need an oil price of $100.. So arrested all the royalty on corruption charges and for billions of dollars in donations they are being freed. Many experts are now saying the crown prince has gone to far and made to many enemies esp with military generals so things are very volatile and there is no money..... Spot on Spatial. Also worth noting that KSA needs $100 oil to pay its kingdoms bills ... US Shale and Tar sands need it to cover the cost of production and service investments (and make a small profit). (The US fed has kept the shale industry afloat with its great generosity in the absence of $70+ oil - alleged break even price). Neither of them is likely to get what they want in the long term because prices are set by buyers not sellers. If they buyers are skint they can't pay the high prices. Russia and Iran must be pretty much sitting on the same couch with a bucket of popcorn watching events unfold. They must know they have the affordable oil. Australian 'Think Tanks' should actually think carefully about this next time it heaves up another foreign policy white paper. If we want affordable oil in the future we want to be friends with the right nations. We are very fortunate that China very much likes our clean food and raw minerals probably best we nurture that and not piss into the wind over the South China Sea.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2017 23:11:53 GMT 10
Hi all, my take on the oil market is that the Oil producing countries have basically seen the writing on the wall and realize the world global warming policies will see oil use phased out, and so the OPEC producers want to sell the oil while it still has value.... Shale oil being more expensive to produce, breaks even up around $75US a barrel so there is a bit of a fight going on on which the USA is producing shale oil at a loss because it pushes the price lower.... other wise the OPEC nations with their increased output would be getting super super rich. The crunch will come soon as some of the major oil producers wells start to run out, which must start happening in the next ten years, I'm guessing.
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