wanderer
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Post by wanderer on Feb 12, 2020 0:19:58 GMT 10
Considering the potential for global pandemic, is it time to bunker down for 6 months or more , self quarantine from society at large as it were if possible. Im seriously thinking about it.
Most of us have jobs and commitments rooted in society, so from paranoid prepper point of view, how do you justify going awol. Not that it need justification, but not to burn bridges in case of foobar?
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frostbite
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Post by frostbite on Feb 12, 2020 4:08:49 GMT 10
Imo, too early. Not enough cases in Australia to justify self quarantine yet.
But a very good question.
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Post by milspec on Feb 12, 2020 6:09:46 GMT 10
From the signs we've had in Australia, so far I'd say it's too early to isolate. We are taking a risk managed approach rather than complete risk avoidance at this stage.
We'll change that stance if we see continuous daily virus spread in Australia or signs of the healthcare system getting bogged down.
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norseman
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Post by norseman on Feb 12, 2020 6:23:00 GMT 10
From the signs we've had in Australia, so far I'd say it's too early to isolate. We are taking a risk managed approach rather than complete risk avoidance at this stage. We'll change that stance if we see continuous daily virus spread in Australia or signs of the healthcare system getting bogged down. Not nearly at critical mass yet. When I witness the above then I'm staying behind a two hundred metre paddock / locked farm gate barrier for a few months.
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Post by spinifex on Feb 12, 2020 7:30:31 GMT 10
So we have quarantine bids of 'a few months' and '6 months'.
Do we have any advances on that?
And if so ... why?
Perhaps a better question is: If you go into self quarantine for X months what are you expecting to have happened to the rest of the world to make it 'safer' while you were gone?
WHO is saying a vaccination program is somewhere between 6 and 18 months away. Even then, it can't say how effective a vaccine may be. We have well established livestock vaccines for highly lethal/damaging diseases that still are not 100% effective. For example OJD vaccine only works 9 out of 10 times; 1 in 10 still contract the disease and many of those die.
SO ... what is the 'trigger' for coming back into the world if you have been out of it for a while?
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norseman
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Post by norseman on Feb 12, 2020 7:42:41 GMT 10
So we have quarantine bids of 'a few months' and '6 months'. Do we have any advances on that? And if so ... why? Perhaps a better question is: If you go into self quarantine for X months what are you expecting to have happened to the rest of the world to make it 'safer' while you were gone? WHO is saying a vaccination program is somewhere between 6 and 18 months away. Even then, it can't say how effective a vaccine may be. We have well established livestock vaccines for highly lethal/damaging diseases that still are not 100% effective. For example OJD vaccine only works 9 out of 10 times; 1 in 10 still contract the disease and many of those die. SO ... what is the 'trigger' for coming back into the world if you have been out of it for a while? A few months is going to give a better handle on tracking the actual behaviour of this thing as opposed to all the perceived or projected outcomes based on two weeks of useless noise to signal we are so far getting with this crap!
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frostbite
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Post by frostbite on Feb 12, 2020 8:44:24 GMT 10
I expect most people who quarantine themselves will rejoin society when their supplies or money runs out. Or when the mrs constant nagging is deemed to be a worse fate than catching a potentially lethal virus.
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grumble
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Post by grumble on Feb 12, 2020 11:57:12 GMT 10
When is it time?
for this virus the answer is never
See the problem is its highly unlikely its ever going to go away and will end up joining the rest of the bugs getting around that makes a bunch of people sick every year just like the thousands of other bugs do
New viruses like this when they first arrive on the scene play havoc with humans as we have no natural resistance to them as they are unknown to our immune system so they are quiet often highly contagious and often quiet fatal but if you survive you gain a degree of resistance to it so next time its not so bad. Sure there are some bugs you just don't want to catch no matter what but just think the Spanish flu killed millions at 1st then settled into the yearly flu pattern knock off a few at risk people here and there like the rest
So if you going into quarantine and avoid other people the question is what happens when you rejoin people you are either going to have to get the vaccine if there is one as quick as possible or you will probably get sick from the very thing you spent time hiding from there most likely isn't any other outcome
Now i'm not saying go out and start licking random stuff to see what pox you can catch it certainly pays to maintain a degree of personal hygiene and vigilance because any form of illness is costly but unless it turns into an Ebola type virus where death is certain and its highly infectious i wont be locking myself away any time soon i mean lets face it every day we jump in our cars and drive and that's far more lethal to Australians at this stage then the virus
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tomatoes
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Post by tomatoes on Feb 12, 2020 13:52:49 GMT 10
It’d be good not to get it when masses of other people have it though - when hospitals are overcrowded etc.
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Post by milspec on Feb 12, 2020 14:10:00 GMT 10
There will come a time when the vaccine is available and the healthcare system has caught up from an initial overburden. The virus should be of limited consequence thereafter. So IMHO the issue is to avoid getting it if/when the healthcare system cant help you and you are in a higher risk category.
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frostbite
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Post by frostbite on Feb 12, 2020 14:50:04 GMT 10
There will come a time when the vaccine is available and the healthcare system has caught up from an initial overburden. The virus should be of limited consequence thereafter. So IMHO the issue is to avoid getting it if/when the healthcare system cant help you and you are in a higher risk category. And over time the healthcare system will improve treatments, just like they have with HIV.
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tomatoes
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Post by tomatoes on Feb 12, 2020 16:20:53 GMT 10
There will come a time when the vaccine is available and the healthcare system has caught up from an initial overburden. The virus should be of limited consequence thereafter. So IMHO the issue is to avoid getting it if/when the healthcare system cant help you and you are in a higher risk category. Yes. Exactly. That’s what I was thinking with my reply above.
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Post by spinifex on Feb 12, 2020 18:23:51 GMT 10
It'll be interesting if those prophesising prolonged economic doom are correct. In which case the much vaunted healthcare system with its treatments and vaccines will become less effective over time ... not more effective.
Having had extensive dealings with our healthcare system medical industry I have duly noted it can barely get things done under 'normal' circumstances.
It's brilliant at dealing out meds/drugs to the aged ... it's a painful and drawn-out experience getting attention for anything more 'exotic' than that.
eg. Took me 3 weeks to get a simple steroid injection into a shoulder injury because we have a shortage of radiographers (I then paid $400 for a 3 minute proceedure with him). Took my kid almost 2 years and several hospital admissions with very serious symptoms and consequences before finally getting a specialist to look into the case and run tests - and I'm tooled up to pay whatever it takes not just waiting around on a medicare ration list. This is just the normal stuff under normal conditions.
Our medical industry is F@cked going forward no matter what. If the predictions of economic disruption are even partially correct it'll implode the moment tax revenues decline. I for one have little faith or trust in its abilities.
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bushdoc2
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Post by bushdoc2 on Feb 12, 2020 19:15:34 GMT 10
eg. Took me 3 weeks to get a simple steroid injection into a shoulder injury because we have a shortage of radiographers (I then paid $400 for a 3 minute proceedure with him). So find a GP who knows how to do it without ultrasound. They do exist, but most of the young 'uns have not learned, are afraid to do so, or it's not wortht the time and $/effort to upskill.
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Feb 12, 2020 20:19:36 GMT 10
I don't think it is a single issue that causes collapse and a mad Max scenario. The virus might be the trigger to collapse the debt bubble. Chinese companies are way over extended building empty cities and are now begging for billions from central government just to keep going. The world also has a chronic food shortage.
My triggers are a trading halt in US stocks, when food and fuel rationing starts. If the corona virus sweeps the globe, it will be in house quarantine It won't take long for majority of population to start to riot a d demand free stuff.
When does one choose to stop going to work and withdraw, depends how it plays out _ there will likely be a run on supermarket goods and when no resupply _ time to hunker down.
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wanderer
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Post by wanderer on Feb 13, 2020 0:46:44 GMT 10
When is it time? for this virus the answer is never See the problem is its highly unlikely its ever going to go away and will end up joining the rest of the bugs getting around that makes a bunch of people sick every year just like the thousands of other bugs do New viruses like this when they first arrive on the scene play havoc with humans as we have no natural resistance to them as they are unknown to our immune system so they are quiet often highly contagious and often quiet fatal but if you survive you gain a degree of resistance to it so next time its not so bad. Sure there are some bugs you just don't want to catch no matter what but just think the Spanish flu killed millions at 1st then settled into the yearly flu pattern knock off a few at risk people here and there like the rest So if you going into quarantine and avoid other people the question is what happens when you rejoin people you are either going to have to get the vaccine if there is one as quick as possible or you will probably get sick from the very thing you spent time hiding from there most likely isn't any other outcome Now i'm not saying go out and start licking random stuff to see what pox you can catch it certainly pays to maintain a degree of personal hygiene and vigilance because any form of illness is costly but unless it turns into an Ebola type virus where death is certain and its highly infectious i wont be locking myself away any time soon i mean lets face it every day we jump in our cars and drive and that's far more lethal to Australians at this stage then the virus
If it becomes anything like the Spanish influenza i certainly do not want to be among the masses, can you imagine what a drop in the population of the same equation would be like today. Lets say 50 million chinese factory workers die first, thats a huge chunk of their workforce and the spill over effect that would have on the world economy would be a massive turning point and shtf event. The latte sipping crowd would be shitting themselves not being able to outsource there overpriced materials to make useless shit on the autralian market, big business relying on china for their slave labor to prop up useless consumerism, sheeple will go mad and do all kinds of weird shit not being able to consume useless shit on a regular basis.
Maybe the time is not yet nigh! But it looks to be pretty @#$%in close.
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Tim Horton
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Post by Tim Horton on Feb 13, 2020 4:58:16 GMT 10
Mostly due to weather, and life style we don't do much around crowds, as it were. About the only real crowds we encounter is something like the Saturday farmers market, grocery store, fall exposition, Loot in the Boot parking lot garage sale...
Of course there is always a danger anywhere, but I'm thinking being around people in stores, and all is a whole different exposure than in an aircraft, auditorium, or other more confined place..
Short answer being, we won't likely make any major changes to our life style until something more changes.. Like said.. That time may be close.
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norseman
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Post by norseman on Feb 13, 2020 5:00:36 GMT 10
I wonder how this virus thing will impact fuel prices in the short term if half of China are not driving their vehicles?
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Beno
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Post by Beno on Feb 13, 2020 6:49:25 GMT 10
I wonder how this virus thing will impact fuel prices in the short term if half of China are not driving their vehicles? We'll drop the prices by a few cents per litre while the price drop per barrel continues to plummet. As per usual we won't get the full discount and not even know that we should be recieving this. I think WTI is $50-ish US and tapis $60. I love Australia but gee sometimes we act like flyblown daggy arsed sheep. We let the flies settle and allow the maggots like multi nats and pollies to eat us from the arsehole in. Yet we fight for the rights of small minorites and sometimes take a stand against the big boys. If they kick the hornets nest too much there will be an awakening. Watch this space. Not sure what it will look like but buckle in if it happens.
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bce1
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Post by bce1 on Feb 13, 2020 8:04:23 GMT 10
Still many unknowns and we cannot make a call on the virus on the information available. As others have said, the risk is more to the supply chain than from the virus. Currently is R0 is sitting at 2.2 and its death rate looks like it is settling out at 2% and 20% hospitalisation rate. So in theory not really a SHTF virus. The efforts that have gone into containment are going to have a big effect on trade / supply lines. That to me is going to be the interesting bit. Some major airlines are flying in and out of Australasia with 20% load factors - that is unsustainable. Rumours abound a big asian carrier is likely to go belly up within a couple of weeks if it keeps going like this. The virus could still surprise us - there are a few unknowns, but I wouldn't withdrawal from society based on current information
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