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Post by spinifex on Jul 24, 2018 20:11:19 GMT 10
In the long run housing prices, whether rent or purchase price can only exist at a level that is affordable for the occupants paying for it. From memory the long term average is about 4X median adult wage for full time workers. At the high margin prices are always set by buyers not sellers and those buyers can drop out very fast at times. But these days banks and government will put huge effort into preventing sharp declines. RBA may yet become the biggest owner of housing assets in the land when they start bailing out the mortgage market!
Frostbite is likely right: may as well party on in real-estate until you pass out. Chances are you'll wake up in a nice bed when it's over and not upside-down in a wheelie bin.
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Aug 13, 2018 21:49:03 GMT 10
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feralemma
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Post by feralemma on Aug 14, 2018 12:22:50 GMT 10
I was talking to my best mate on the weekend. He sold his investment house near Seaworld recently, after owning it for 10 years. Only made about 18% capital growth in that time. Meanwhile in SEQ my retreat made over 300% growth in the 12 years I owned it. Markets vary enormously even within the same general region. Rural land is holding value or going up. Farms and stations are being bought out by big multi national corporations, and big business is moving in on the food prodcution side of things. The only rural properties left for those without millions to spend are those such as your retreat - undeveloped, remote, un arable or too small to be commercially viable etc etc. In 12 months our place has gone up 50% in value.
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Aug 14, 2018 19:44:58 GMT 10
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Post by spinifex on Aug 15, 2018 19:57:42 GMT 10
I was talking to my best mate on the weekend. He sold his investment house near Seaworld recently, after owning it for 10 years. Only made about 18% capital growth in that time. Meanwhile in SEQ my retreat made over 300% growth in the 12 years I owned it. Markets vary enormously even within the same general region. Rural land is holding value or going up. Farms and stations are being bought out by big multi national corporations, and big business is moving in on the food prodcution side of things. The only rural properties left for those without millions to spend are those such as your retreat - undeveloped, remote, un arable or too small to be commercially viable etc etc. In 12 months our place has gone up 50% in value. I've got a well-networked mate in the NT who is also reporting huge prices being paid for stations there. Head scratchingly high infact. Yet, in my region (well before the current dry time), a Saudi sovereign wealth fund sold off its 40 thousand acres of holdings about 2 years ago having held it for about a decade. Small farm blocks here are also devaluing quite substantially (40% off their highs of 5 years ago.)
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feralemma
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Post by feralemma on Aug 15, 2018 23:18:39 GMT 10
The high prices and demand for stations in the NT is due to fracking that is going to happen there. I'd put money on it!
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Post by Peter on Aug 15, 2018 23:22:23 GMT 10
feralemma that's a good point. I know very little about fracking, but I'm curious as to how it could be monitored over so many hectares of land...
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Aug 16, 2018 17:43:17 GMT 10
Australian housing is getting more attention in the news. www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-14/chart-day-australias-record-household-debt-ticking-time-bomb"The Australian household debt to income ratio has ballooned to shocking levels over the past three decades as Sydney is ranked as one of the most overvalued cities in the world. According to the Daily Mail Australia, credit card bills, home mortgages, and personal loans now account for 189 percent of an average Australian household income, compared with just 60 percent in 1988, as Callus Thomas, Head of Research of Topdown Charts, demonstrates that record high household debt is a ticking time bomb:"
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Post by spinifex on Aug 16, 2018 18:22:45 GMT 10
The high prices and demand for stations in the NT is due to fracking that is going to happen there. I'd put money on it! Hmmm ... not sure. Most landowners I've discussed this topic with are mighty worried that fracking will decrease the value of their holding. Same with just basic mineral exploration and exploration tenements over agricultural lands. I have heard that red meat production is tipped to be one of the best performing investments of the future. Maybe there is a lot of money flowing into it from high level investors trying to escape riskier investment classes such as minerals, banking and urban real estate.
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Post by spinifex on Aug 16, 2018 18:32:10 GMT 10
feralemma that's a good point. I know very little about fracking, but I'm curious as to how it could be monitored over so many hectares of land... It's a very secretive activity. And as with most mining/petroleum they basically monitor themselves and submit reports to the government regulators. Its a case of : "Trust us!" Generally there's only a serious audit of company activities AFTER something has gone badly wrong. Even then ... rarely does any significant penalty get applied. In South Australia our biggest mine (Olympic Dam copper and uranium) is not even subject to full regulation under the Mining Act. It got it's own Indenture Act.
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feralemma
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Post by feralemma on Aug 16, 2018 19:10:14 GMT 10
feralemma that's a good point. I know very little about fracking, but I'm curious as to how it could be monitored over so many hectares of land... It's a very secretive activity. And as with most mining/petroleum they basically monitor themselves and submit reports to the government regulators. Its a case of : "Trust us!" Generally there's only a serious audit of company activities AFTER something has gone badly wrong. Even then ... rarely does any significant penalty get applied. In South Australia our biggest mine (Olympic Dam copper and uranium) is not even subject to full regulation under the Mining Act. It got it's own Indenture Act. It's bullshit isn't it 😠
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Post by spinifex on Aug 16, 2018 19:30:24 GMT 10
Yep. Big time!
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Aug 17, 2018 12:08:22 GMT 10
Back on track with preparations. The article below gives warning of potential for imminent financial collapse and 11 thing to do to prepare. 5 Signs That Global Financial Markets Are Entering A Bear Market, And 11 Ways That You Can Get Prepared For The Chaos That Is Coming…
Sharetheeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/5-signs-that-global-financial-markets-are-entering-a-bear-market-and-11-ways-that-you-can-get-prepared-for-the-chaos-that-is-coming1 – Get Out of Debt: The old saying, “the borrower is the servant of the lender”, is so incredibly true. The key to insulating yourself from an economic meltdown is to become as independent as possible, and as long as you are in debt, you simply are not independent. You don’t want a horde of creditors chasing after you when things really start to get bad out there. 2 – Find New Sources of Income: With the birth of The IRA, there simply is no such thing as job security anymore. If you are dependent on a job (“just over broke”) for 100% of your income, you are in a very bad position. There are thousands of different ways to make extra money. What you don’t want to do is to have all of your eggs in one basket. One day when the economy melts down and you are out of a job are you going to be destitute or are you going to be okay? IF you need some ideas on what you can do, contact me and I can help. 3 – Reduce Your Expenses: Many Americans have left the rat race and have found ways to live on half or even on a quarter of what they were making previously. It is possible – if you are willing to reduce your expenses. In the future times are going to be tougher, so learn to start living with less today. 4 – Learn To Grow Your Own / Supplement Your Food: Today the vast majority of Americans are completely dependent on being able to run down to the supermarket or to the local Wal-Mart to buy food. But what happens when the U.S. dollar declines dramatically in value and it costs ten bucks to buy a loaf of bread? If you learn to grow your own food (even if is just a small garden) you will be insulating yourself against rising food prices. Another thing is to learn to hunt and fish. There is “low cost” food out there for the taking, you just need to assert yourself. (Low Cost = you still need to pay for hunting and fishing licenses.) 5 – Make Sure You Have A Reliable Water Supply: Water shortages are popping up all over the globe. Water is quickly becoming one of the “hottest” commodities out there. Even in the United States, water shortages have been making headline news recently. As we move into the future, it will be imperative for you and your family to have a reliable source of water. Some Americans have learned to collect rainwater and many others are using advanced technology such as atmospheric water generators to provide water for their families. But whatever you do, make sure that you are not caught without a decent source of water in the years ahead. 6 – Buy Land: This is a tough one, because prices are high depending on where you are looking. If you are able to buy land when prices are low, that is going to insulate you a great deal from the rising housing costs that will occur when the U.S dollar does totally go into the tank. 7 – Buy Precious Metals: this is a no brainer, but it still amazes me how many people are not doing this. Right now silver is sitting at $14.41. That is a very affordable price and a price that everyone can afford. We must start “paying ourselves first” and start pulling in these sort of assets. The best place that I recommend is Renaissance Precious Metals. It is who I purchase from. 8 – Get Partially Off The Grid: An increasing number of Americans are going “off the grid”. Essentially what that means is that they are attempting to operate independently of the utility companies. In particular, going “off the grid” will enable you to insulate yourself from the rapidly rising energy prices that we are going to see in the future. If you are able to produce energy for your own home, you won’t be freaking out like your neighbors are when electricity prices triple someday. 9 – Store Non-Perishable Supplies: Non-perishable supplies are one investment that is sure to go up in value. Not that you would resell them. You store up non-perishable supplies because you are going to need them someday. So why not stock up on the things that you are going to need now before they double or triple in price in the future? Your money is not ever going to stretch any farther than it does right now. EXAMPLE – Toilet Paper 10 – Develop Stronger Relationships: Americans have become very insular creatures. We act like we don’t need anyone or anything. But the truth is that as the we see a socio-economic melt down we are going to need each other. It is those that are developing strong relationships with family and friends right now that will be able to depend on them when times get hard. 11 – Get Educated And Stay Flexible: When times are stable, it is not that important to be informed because things pretty much stay the same. However, when things are rapidly changing it is imperative to get educated and to stay informed so that you will know what to do. The times ahead are going to require us all to be very flexible, and it is those who are willing to adapt that will do the best when things get tough.
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bce1
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Post by bce1 on Aug 17, 2018 17:05:24 GMT 10
While I agree to a point frostbite, I think you need balance. I think I have said this before but once you have a good supply of beans, bandaids and bullets it is reasonable to consider a small amount of precious metals. Gold and silver prices currently are very competitive - I have lost on what I bought 18 months ago, but I’m in it for the long haul or for a hyperinflation situation so I’m not overly worried. But i agree you cannot eat gold or silver. But I have 5% of my super saving in PMs and don’t regret it.
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Post by Peter on Aug 17, 2018 21:18:02 GMT 10
And as frostbite mentioned, even if it doesn't increase in value, rice can be eaten whereas gold cannot.
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Aug 18, 2018 9:34:58 GMT 10
And as frostbite mentioned, even if it doesn't increase in value, rice can be eaten whereas gold cannot. Most of the financial advice letter are meant for investors. $20-$30k one can purchase all the emergency food and medical etc supplies that a person will ever need. Then land and a safe place to bunker down. What do you do with the rest of the money?? Physical gold has no expiatory date - it is inert and does not oxidise and has held its value since the begging of time through wars and numerous financial collapse. I do agree that gold is the very last thing one should consider - where else can one put any financial reserve. Emerging markets are having a currency meltdown, and despite the international price of gold going down in those markets gold is booming. Australian dollar is dropping - gold is a hedge to currency collapse.
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Beno
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Post by Beno on Aug 18, 2018 13:33:25 GMT 10
if you need to bug out you can easily take a large value of gold with you. it would be very difficult to take all your stashed food with you in the same situation. Spread your bets and cover multiple options, to what degree is up to the individual.
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Post by spinifex on Aug 18, 2018 20:44:27 GMT 10
I guess we should ask ourselves: What did/do the well off residents of Zimbabwe or Venezuela do? What did the well off residents of Vietnam do in 1975? What did the hard pressed peoples of eastern Europe do from 41 to 45? What did they do from 45 to 90? What did the Russians do during and after their huge collapse in 1988?
The answers to what happens when/after SHTF are already known through previous examples.
In all these examples the S didn't just hit the F for a few months or a year ... it has dragged on for decades. All the really 'big' events always drag on for years.
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