Australia 'sharpening its teeth' to be ready for China.

If they can get a viable airbase going in Darwin then I reckon they could seriously faark us over!  How long will it take for the yanks to show up with a battle group? 

Not to mention the fact that China would have to fly/sail everything through Indonesia, with whom they have a territorial dispute. Hard to see Australia getting involved in any conflict with China that didn't already have several SE asian countries already at war with them. (Though if they know it's headed for us, the Indo's might accidentally let a few warplanes get through...)

1. If we are largely on our own (ie no US naval support) whats stopping the guaranteed supply?  Where are the planes to bomb darwin harbour coming from?  If several thousand troops suddenly pop up will there be time to react before Darwin and Tindall are under enemy control? 

2. I'm pretty sure the Japanese army just surged clear across SE asia and if I recollect correctly they had bases on the northern side of PNG.  They don't need any stealth with that kind of approach anyway.  And, again, without the help of US forces do we have the means to dislodge them ourselves?

Look, all this is highly speculative stuff for sure, but all the best military campaigns begin with a nasty surprise.  Panzers ripping through 'terrain impassable to tanks' in France 1940, a Japanese carrier group popping up withing striking distance of pearl harbor, the USAF crushing Iraqi air defences in a the course of an hour.

And in this example list I fear we are analagous to Iraq and our adversary is analagous to the USAF.  You reckon the Iraqis didn't know what was coming before it got there?  All they could do was sit back and watch the build up and wait for the blow.  They had a lot of air defence kit but it didn't count for much - they didn't know how effective stealth planes and precision munitions could really be.  Are we the same or worse off or better off?

That will probably involve UN inspections. If you're lucky the inspectors might be Nordic ladies.

...and I can hear him moaning "I'm the Number 1 Survivalist, why do I get all the ugly ones?"

Thanks for the video, Joey . I hardly ever watch them but that one is good. @spinifex, watch it. Gives a much better explanation than I can.


Lots of options. Our planes, subs and surface ships. Cruise missiles, Allied military forces. Scuttled ships in the channels of Darwin harbour. Explosives used on the docks. Acid in the windings of the dock cranes. Pissed off Aussies sniping and firebombing enemy troops. Caltrops on the roads. Burn all the trucks in Darwin. Shitty climate. Switch road signs around. Contaminate fuel supplies. We could drop troops with Javelin missiles on offshore islands where the enemy ships are sailing. The options are endless. None of which works in isolation but together makes life hell for the enemy and reduce their ability to fight.


Short but unpleasant answer, no. War sucks. It took 5 years to kick the Nazi's and the Jap's arse, two and a half months to kick the Argies off the Falklands, expect a similar timeline for any invasion. Don't even think 'it will all be over by Christmas'.
But militarily it doesn't matter if they land. Just as long as we can kick them off again. You don't have to win in any set way or time, you just have to win. Period.


I'll let you know afterwards!
Seriously, there are too many variables.
We have a heap of advantages. Island, distance, professional and disciplined military, hostile climate, high tech gear, friends with militaries.
But there aren't a lot of us and I would rate the so-called 'leadership' of the country as a disadvantage.
Don't think of war as us vs the enemy in a boxing ring. It is more like a barfight. Once it starts who knows how it will end up. People swinging everywhere, falling down, getting back up, going off for a drink before getting back into it, being dragged away. Havoc.
But remember that the Nips were stopped in PNG by Australian militia who had very little training. Wait till our well trained diggers get into a fight on home soil. Yeehaa.


You are citing two attacks that went very well and one that was fairly easy. Hindsight is wonderful.
But for every success there are just as many failures.
The Nips also tried that at Midway with very poor results for them.
The Allies has most of North Africa at one stage and lost nearly all of it again.
The Zulus thought that with 1000s of warriors they were certain to overrun those few silly Brits wearing those funny clothes. Oops.
Any warfare carries a great deal of uncertainty. Just because your three examples were a victory didn't mean there wasn't the exact same chance of it all going to shit with a crushing defeat.



Again, I'll let you know afterwards.
But AFAIK Aussie soldiers have a very good reputation around the world for getting the job done.
Also reports from WW2 mention that the Germans fought a lot harder once the Allies pushed them back onto German soil.
Expect a similar if not greater degree of commitment if we get invaded.

On our own, which we wouldn't be, I would call it even, too close to call. With allies, we win. But nukes can change everything so who knows. But even a failed invasion means a heap of hurt for us so winning would still suck.
Best I can do.

PART II :-



  

Interesting!! 

And no-one thinks indo wouldn't just stand back and watch?  Or ... pile on as well?

Britain and France were hereditary enemies for hundreds of years but seemed to find a way to get together to battle Germany on a couple of occasions.

The Soviet Union and Germany quite happily carved up Poland in 1939.

If China really wanted Aus they would be better off invading one of the Pacific islands. Build up what they need there and be much closer when it kicks off.
New Zealand would be good, the Kiwis couldn't stop them. Further away but larger and with a fair bit of existing infrastructure. Also closer to the main populated areas in Aus.
I assume we'd help the Kiwis so we'd lose a fair bit of hardware and personnel, the distance to NZ would be a handicap for us as well, again making it a bit easier for the Chinese when it started.

Maybe it would be a China/India alliance. Together they have about 2 billion people I think. The Top End might be a good place for a "Southern Expansion Zone". Or China/Japan making the old 'co-prosperity sphere' a reality this time.
To be honest I don't see Indonesia as an enemy. I think a lot of that comes from the fact that they are the only large country that is close to us. So if we want an enemy for any reason we have to pick them! Everyone else is too far away!

Don't forget, spinifex, we have already been in a genocidal war. We obliterated entire cities and everyone in them either with nukes or HE and incendiaries. And we wiped out entire military garrisons - no survivors.
If the Chinese did go genocidal here it works in our favour. All we have to do is tell China's neighbours about it. "Guess what, you're next, you better kick off now while we've got them distracted."