blueshoes
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Post by blueshoes on Aug 12, 2020 12:41:56 GMT 10
Hey everyone! I have a whole scenario we're thinking through at the moment as a family - thought i'd post it here for other people to play along with if you're so inclined. Here's the first bit
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It's Sunday, 5am, on a cool morning in December.
There's still not much traffic around in the cities and country towns - the restriction levels have fluctuated, after going back down to level 2 and back up to level 3, we are back to level 2 restrictions again in most areas in Australia (except the NT, which is barely level 1). Masks are expected to be worn in most states (or the police are at liberty to fine you), but there is freedom of movement and the shops which are still in business have been opening. The hospitals haven't been too overloaded with pandemic patients, and are starting to reckon with the massive backlog of elective and chronic patients whose treatment has been getting neglected.
For some reason, the power has just gone out. Nobody knows why yet - details are a bit uncertain.
Radio stations are online, and reporting general blackout - still no details as to why. The reporter on the radio says, "We are just trying to get hold of someone who works at the power station to see if we can get a better idea of what is going on, but at this stage it looks like a state-wide blackout - we don't have further details for you yet." She puts some music on, and plays a few more songs.
(Power stays off for the remainder of the morning.)
As people wake up, reports continue to appear on social media - and via calls to the radio - of people in different states and territories all having lost mains electricity - the hospitals, phone towers and some other key infrastructure are running on generators. There isn't a clear story on what time power was lost. Different people are saying different things, sometimes even within the same state.
... what time do you wake up, and what will you do?
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frostbite
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Post by frostbite on Aug 12, 2020 14:08:53 GMT 10
I'll power up the gas fridge, just in case the power stays off for the whole day. Will also use the gas camp cooker for meals, or the microwave with my generator. My portable solar panel will recharge phones, tablets, even the portable lights if power is out overnight.
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Post by Joey on Aug 12, 2020 19:47:29 GMT 10
Get the generator out and fuelled up/test run ready to go, move all the meats in the fridge into the deep freezer, get the batteries/solar panels out and setup in the yard, get some "go bags" packed ready with essentials and get camping gear/spare jerries loaded in the car for a quick get away, get the waeco fridge out and started on the batteries to start chilling it. The wait for news, monitor the UHF radio and police/fire bands
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ygidorp
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Post by ygidorp on Aug 12, 2020 22:01:16 GMT 10
Fill the bathtub and rainwater tank. Cycle stored water, if possible.
Apart from that, my preps are pretty low key. We have basic food and water, which doesn't require more prepping. Thanks to covid, we're pretty much set for a 3 month period. I don't have generators or anything like that to get running, as I have no use for them in normal everyday life and they're a significant investment/risk in suburbia.
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ygidorp
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Post by ygidorp on Aug 12, 2020 22:13:32 GMT 10
Probably call family, and advise them to do the same.
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Aug 12, 2020 22:23:53 GMT 10
Get the wood BBQ out and have a good Sunday lunch. There is a macas in my area that has a generator, the queue will be across multiple roads, so avoid the area. Limit access to freezer. Put essential in large cooler box, cover with wet towel, keep items cool for more than a week, with a few frozen 2L bottles of water from the chest freezers.
Charge the 2 way hand held radios with mini solar pannel, have a competition who can charge their wind up radio /touch from 72h bag first. Check and service home weather station, might be only weather info coming in.
Confirm popcorn stocks and other supplies for Mo day/Tuesday shop. Last big power outage some shops wew almost giving away perishable foods, just need get some cash out gun safe.
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grumble
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Post by grumble on Aug 13, 2020 7:19:07 GMT 10
For some reason, the power has just gone out. Nobody knows why yet - details are a bit uncertain. Radio stations are online, and reporting general blackout - still no details as to why. The reporter on the radio says, "We are just trying to get hold of someone who works at the power station to see if we can get a better idea of what is going on, but at this stage it looks like a state-wide blackout - we don't have further details for you yet." She puts some music on, and plays a few more songs. (Power stays off for the remainder of the morning.) As people wake up, reports continue to appear on social media - and via calls to the radio - of people in different states and territories all having lost mains electricity - the hospitals, phone towers and some other key infrastructure are running on generators. There isn't a clear story on what time power was lost. Different people are saying different things, sometimes even within the same state. ... what time do you wake up, and what will you do? The simple fact that there is no clear indication of what has caused the power outage and its across multiple regions is enough to tell me that its not a simple equipment failure. Some times the lack of clear information is the best indicator of a really big problem because basically you know its a stalling tactic and the utility companies are in heavy consultation with the local authorities to try and come up with an official answer to minimize panic or lack of confidence in the government and or the utility company So my response would be to treat it like i would any other serious event and start to actively seek information from other sources as i make plans that best suit the situation. Sometimes you stay put sometimes you hit the road but you should never react blindly if you can avoid it Key things id be listening out for is information of road blocks , high levels of government resources being deployed and so on because the last thing id want to do is hit the road and get stuck in a 5000 car traffic jam at a military roadblock
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blueshoes
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Post by blueshoes on Aug 13, 2020 8:18:10 GMT 10
At about 8am, a call goes out to ADF and reserve to report to depot/base asap (no further info at this stage).
Phone towers have about 4 hours of backup power, which means they mostly stop functioning about 9am.
With no phones, tv or facebook, the city and town populations start wandering out of their houses trying to work out what is going on.
Shops are opened by worried owners. They do business in cash, trying to get rid of stock before it becomes unsaleable.
ISP infrastructure at local exchanges runs out of power about then too.
Ambulances are still able to be called to jobs by the police (and in Victoria, PSOs) who have radios and are out visibly patrolling. The police keep an eye on things, but they aren't able to refill tanks once they run out - petrol station pumps are all electric and not working.
Pockets across Australia manage to restore power to bits of the grid while the sun's out, moderated by local power stations, but what power there is comes and goes as generators run out of fuel.
The prime minister goes on ABC radio at 11am and says, essentially: "We have a complex situation on our hands, with a number of things that have had a domino effect. There appears to have been some cyber attacks, but at this stage we don't know who is behind them or why. We aren't even sure that they were all from the same source. They didn't appear to be using the same tools or type of attack. Some of them have been ongoing and just happened to succeed at various stages this morning for reasons that remain unclear. "Please stay calm, keep your radio on for updates and entertainment. I know my family are all pretty bored too, even with our jigsaw puzzles. We are working to get everything back online, hopefully in the next day or two - we have some very dedicated electricity people who are working around the clock to get us all powered back up as soon as we can. Our emergency services people are doing their best too, please make their lives easier by staying home as much as you can..."
As it's only small local patches that have electricity, the power (where it is on) is enough to charge phones. Servers (news, facebook, whatsapp, google, weather, ausprep) are still generally inaccessible, except for inner Sydney: An exchange near a data centre in inner Sydney has power, and is connected to the US by cable. Via that limited infrastructure, a rumour starts: Satellite images show that Pine Gap has been blown up somehow while chaos was happening everywhere else.
More container ships have appeared on the horizon near Adelaide, Melbourne and Sydney, as ports are out of action for the time being and nothing is able to be offloaded using the cranes at the port. Some of them are pulling closer to the docks anyway.
It's now 2pm and there is a growing number of males congregating in town centres, near police stations hoping for news, and some looting starting to happen in warehouse areas that are unstaffed on a Sunday.
(I need anyone who's military to fill in some details here if you're up for it - i don't know how the ADF etc would be responding to all this.)
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dadbod
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Post by dadbod on Aug 13, 2020 14:49:47 GMT 10
we are up at 7am with the kids coming in. first sign would be my son wanting football results and highlights. that failing, i would suspect dodgy internet, but a little place in my mind would be thinking of worse outcomes. I would be immediatly up to the supermarket with cash, and buying as much as I could, then bunnings, then stockfeeds. We would get started on canning/dehydrating what could be salvaged from freezers. holy shit, I would be totally panicked as I understand what all those signs mean.
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Post by Stealth on Aug 13, 2020 21:01:36 GMT 10
Alert but not alarmed, I think. We have prepared for as much as we can with the space that we have and our plan is to bug in rather than out. Get to the shops and buy as much as we could in the way of dried produce (beans/rice etc, we have a short term stock of a few months but not enough for long term). Probably try to drop a few $k at our local Indian grocers as they have a massive selection of legumes and grains at a very reasonable price. Wouldn't bother trying to get meat, we're very handy at making nutritionally sound meals with no meat so we'd go for the stuff that your average punter won't think of straight away.
Otherwise, grab cash out and top up car fuel tanks just in case. Grab a spare battery for the battery box (solar panels and box are already good to go but a spare is very important in this weather). Possibly call the local gold dealer and see if they have anything in stock that hasn't already been snapped up. And then basically hold out for more news. Take stock of everything we have, and find ways to make things quickly and easily transportable. Check in on older neighbors who might be concerned or scared but out of contact with their families. Check in on friends that are separated from family and make sure they're doing ok.
But basically keep an ear to the ground and be ready to respond quickly to changes.
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Post by milspec on Aug 13, 2020 23:18:42 GMT 10
I'd be scanning on shortwave radio/ham radio for news of what is going on further afield/overseas. Widespread blackouts would be registering as potential cyber attack. Partner would be heading to town to collect additional meds with cash in hand. We'd adjust our security footing to anticipate increased threats in coming days/weeks. I'd be getting anything charged which wasnt already fully charged.
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Post by spinifex on Aug 14, 2020 8:21:13 GMT 10
If pine gap has been blown up as in 'part 2' of your scenario ... then its time for the spinifex cadre to to immediately activate plan Z: Remote desert self sustaining lifestyle. Because it means a mighty war isn't imminent - it is in progress. In those circumstances cash don't matter, gold don't matter, a huge pile of supplies don't matter, Pretty much only two things matter: a 'survivable' location where detection is unlikely and the tools and skills that can generate a reliable food supply for the rest of ones natural life. My gut feel is the next mighty war will involve a lot of cleansing and shifting of international borders. One does not want to find themselves clinging to hope in the wrong place at the wrong time.
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frostbite
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Post by frostbite on Aug 14, 2020 11:15:51 GMT 10
Some here are saying they would grab 'cash out' and buy last minute preps from major chains like Bunnings. This won't be possible with no power. No atms, no eftpos, no large stores open when there's no power. Small corner stores may still trade for cash. I think you need to assume you will only have what you already have, or can loot if you're that way inclined.
For me, part 2 of this scenario causes perhaps my biggest dilemma. Do I stay put in a well stocked home, surrounded by fresh meat and hungry sheeple, or do I bugout the 4hr drive to my retreat? What are my adult children doing? Have they decided to move to the retreat? How will I know when they live far away and there's no phone or internet? If I delay will I get caught up in a mass exodus?
Not sure what I would do if the time ever comes, but it is likely I will load up the trailer with all my supplies and head to the retreat, stopping in to collect daughter and grandson on the way. Son and DIL are opposite direction, but well armed, equipped and capable, so will hope they can get to retreat on their own.
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dadbod
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Post by dadbod on Aug 14, 2020 13:02:54 GMT 10
cash is on hand, and I dont know when the power went out, so bunnings etc. may still be going. they may also have started up a gen set. may as well try spend it while it has some value.
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Post by milspec on Aug 14, 2020 14:10:27 GMT 10
When I typed my initial response I hadn't seen the part 2 of the scenario. As suspected cyber is the cause of such a widespread outage. The Pine Gap attack indicates the shooting match has begun and China is the most probable & expected culprit. A homeland physical attack would suggest to me that war will likely be declared and the US assets involved will likely mean that the US will get involved as well as varying degrees of support from 5 eyes partners & the Quad.
Whilst C4ISR infrastructure possibly including space has been targeted, there are many terrestrial based high altutude, long endurance systems that will remain functional and deliver capability in support of an effective military response. I wouldn't be expecting to see communist flags on the horizon at this stage and I wouldnt be heading to the hills just yet.
I would be supplementing caches & fallback camps, protecting some electronics from EMP, fortifying the homestead from casual looters, coordinating with the neighbours and increasing surveillance and radio comms. Reviewing protective measures for fallout since the scale of war is yet to become clear although I'd probably disconnect the rainwater tanks from the feed pipes if war has broken out.
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shinester
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Post by shinester on Aug 21, 2020 0:38:09 GMT 10
Playing this out as it happens.. Stage 1 - Hmm, that's odd power goes out here all the time in weather, hasn't been a storm? I've got some backup power/solar and a gen, though I'd probably just check with my phone as to what is going on as best as I could. Statewide? That's of concern and quite unusual, has the weather been hot? Is everyone using their aircon at once? Don't think so, very unusual! Hmm, I think I better put the panels out to keep a charge and nurse the batteries. What do I need to charge? Dam, the phone's almost flat. I'll put that on a fold out panel I have for phones/radios and see if I can figure this out, it's probably nothing, though if it's something.. Stage 2 - Dam, there's no reception on the phone now? Frack me the tower's out of power, haven't seen that before. I suppose we've got the radio in the car, I just about never listen to it, though scanning the dial, I've got some stations with people talking and others with just music [all commercial stations have automatic music players if the air goes dead for long enough both in the studio and on the antenna]. Other states as well? This is likely to be serious. War? Looting already?!! That's fast, people are panicking. This is not good and sooner than expected, usually people have cognitive dissonance and it takes them days to catch up out of routine. I better start talking to the close neighbours, suggest that in cyclones they say to fill up bath tubs because of the loss of power to water supply. [playing half dumb]. I'm playing as if I miss some of the details listed initially, rumors and with limited time listening to the radio as I reach out into the neighborhood. I'm sure I would get info soon on it, and to which I would strongly expect that a nuclear war is about to, or is already occurring. I don't have time to dig a shelter though the moment I hear about pine gap being destroyed, I'm going to start building an improvised shelter, beds, bookcases, anything, in a part of the house I have in mind as best as I can as fallout might be a near term issue, though it's unlikely Melbs will be a primary or secondary target, there's far more bigger fish to fry. I like the getting cash idea - I don't need supplies, though cash I could potentially use. Will adopt.
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blueshoes
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Post by blueshoes on Aug 21, 2020 12:15:23 GMT 10
I'm really enjoying reading everyone's comments so far, there's been a few really good ones that i completely didn't think of. like loss of water pressure!
Good pick up Frostbite about the fact that it's likely you can't get power from an ATM in a blackout (unless they have a generator running and it's in the first couple hours before phone towers lose power - before about 9am).
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Day 2: Power is starting to be restored, and a hodge-podge of reasons have been given.
In Victoria, for example, the main power generators at Loy Yang just failed. It was only really a matter of time. This caused a severe lack of generation and blackouts that meant that at any given point, there was only barely enough power for about 5-10% of the state all up, and when the power company attempted to restore power to different areas, incidents kept happening ("something keeps going wrong with the system when we try and turn power on"). Power in Victoria is on in different areas for 2-3 hours at a time, most areas have only had one stint of power today. Factories are still without power. The generators will take some time to fix. At Loy Yang, Engineers are on the phone to the German repairs centre to see if there's a part they can 3D print as a temporary workaround until the other generator - currently overseas being fixed - can be returned.
South Australia was importing most of their power from Victoria, and when Victoria went down, SA got cut off too. At some point on day 2 the solar and wind came online enough to power much of the state; the SA-NSW interconnector was just waiting for a round of sign-offs - which suddenly happened - and that came online, helping with the remaining power. It only lasted for a few hours, and as the sun waned, rolling blackouts started happening again, getting increasingly worse until sunset.
in NSW, a key part of the Snowy system had malfunctioned, and an internal investigation has started. It's not clear whether there was negligence, foul play, or a cyber attack of some sort on the control grid - but the authorities are playing down the role of "cyber-terrorism" in the incident.
Water pressure is still patchy. Some people didn't have any water while the power was off, and have filled up water bottles and been panic-buying them at any shops, servos or anywhere else that has water bottles (or stealing them if at the time power was out and they didn't have any cash. The power being out meant no CCTV in most places, and no phone signal to call the cops.)
Rumours and news from the US - where internet access has been restored- are patchy, but riots, explosions and chaos appear to be fairly widespread. There doesn't appear to be any nuclear war happening, but the country seems to be a mess all the same. It doesn't seem to be a single major invasion or anything, just a civil war that might or might not have been circumspectly stirred up by foreign agents joining the 'protests'. The US Army have all been recalled to try and settle things at home, including troops who had been stationed overseas. This has allowed for some unrest in other countries, although Russia, China and some other UN troops have moved in to fill the void in a few places. (Iran has taken over enforcing the 'stability' of Iraq).
There's no official word on what happened at Pine Gap. It's pretty definitely been cratered. Rumours say that the ABC and other outlets have been asked not to comment or draw attention to this. Rumours are also starting to suggest that Chinese operatives might have had something to do with this, but with the US essentially out of action, Australia doesn't want to pick a fight over this right now and is trying to stay out of it as much as they can.
Some of the container ships off the coast seem to have gotten bored while they were stuck off the coast, and have started sending drones flying in over town. There's only maybe two or three of them launched from each ship, launched from container ships near Port Augusta, Geelong, Wollongong and a few other places. A couple appeared to malfunction and landed by a main road, but they don't appear to be carrying any weapons or explosives. A couple off the coast of Adelaide made it over town and back to the ship. As for others, it's not clear what they were or what happened to them - although at least one did appear to make it back to the ship in one piece near Geelong.
The looting seems to have settled as power is starting to be restored; many people are breathing a sigh of relief and frustration as things seem to be going back to normal. It's a bit cloudy and overcast, unlike the beautiful day yesterday, and most people are spending more time rugged up indoors.
Many houses have radios, although some of them are starting to get flat batteries. There have been a number of house fires from people using candles in the evening to play cards etc. The sugar high from eating all the icecream and sweets in the freezer has worn off, and a number of people have had diabetic episodes.
The shops are opening for a few hours here and there when they have power, except the fridges and freezers have emptied by staff. Batteries have sold out in record time, including even kids toys' that come with a couple of AA's in them. Fruit and Veg are still around, but there's been (another) run on tinned food and rice.
There were moderate queues at petrol stations, which have been getting shorter as short periods of electricity, and the arrival of loaned generators, allow them to sell what's in their tanks. "We Have No Petrol" signs go up, and the line of cars moves down the road to another station that hasn't run out. Resupply is taking time, as the central depot only has limited power. A couple of petrol stations have been designated as "emergency services only" and are getting priority resupply, but tankers are getting out to other petrol stations too (so far, only in the city - many regional areas have not run out yet and are not feeling the pinch anyway).
Coffee shops are doing a roaring trade when the power is on, and those who were working from home are staying close and getting work done as best they can, when they have power and internet.
While power was out, nobody was able to get cash from ATM's; They're working in other states, but in Victoria, Dan Andrews has used this as an opportunity to ban ATM's (announced on the morning of day 2/Monday - banks were notified the night before). When asked about how internet banking is supposed to work in the face of widespread blackouts, he accused the reporter of attempting to shore up the black market, and said: "Electricity being out was just a small anomaly, we live in a first-world country with a first world electricity grid. Our power companies do an outstanding job generally and except for yesterday and today, we have never had this happen before and I'm sure they'll manage it so we don't face this kind of incident in future."
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Post by Stealth on Aug 21, 2020 20:43:18 GMT 10
At this point, I'd be sending the other half and the kids to the in-laws. Not sure if we're factoring border lockdowns into this, but if that's still a thing we'd be looking at organising a way to create a sub-lease to provide residential evidence to justify a border-crossing, even if it's into self-funded iso. I wouldn't ask that of them unless it was a dire need and I feel confident that they would agree to it but if that many things are falling apart, signs point to not good.
So send the family to the inlaws and wait out. I can't leave where I am and would have to remain at work, but they don't have to be here. Probably would have already gone to the bank to get more cash out. We already have some socked away in a safe place for emergencies, but I'd be grabbing out enough to cover costs for about a week. I'd then go to the local gold dealer and pick up whatever I could, whether it's silver or gold. I figure you'll get about a week of use out of cash before people aren't trading it anymore if things have really gone sideways.
Otherwise, batten down the hatches. Keep an ear to the ground and wait for updates.
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shinester
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China's white trash
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Post by shinester on Aug 22, 2020 0:15:00 GMT 10
Restrictions on getting cash? Something's very very fishy. This Andrew's guy is over the top as always. I'm glad it's not nuclear war and everything's ok, I think I'll leave the makeship shelter as is anyhow, I'm considering digging a hole in the ground under the house in case this all goes to poo, wish I had done that years ago, oh well. It's all a bit weird. Not sure what's going on, the power's come on only for a short time and there's water flowing again, seems like only essential services get power for now according to the radio. Glad some communications are back, at least phone towers are working, even if I getting constant messages from my family that's annoying. The food in the fridge is going to be no good soon. I think I'll keep talking with the neighbors around and try and see if we can build up some more rapport, organise a BBQ in the street. A little late to get to know them, though you know, modern society, kinda weird doing that, but hey, it's a good excuse and it's not too far off what people do in situations, all of the refrigerated food is fooked anyhow, might as well teach some people to cook and preserve, perhaps the other people in the house can try to get some fuel, one of the cars is almost empty, the supermarket's open without lights, might be a chance..
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Post by spinifex on Aug 22, 2020 8:27:00 GMT 10
We had a 3.5 day blackout in our region (2 days across most of the state) ... life in rural areas plodded on. It's not to much of a deal. But in this particular scenario ... the destruction of Pine Gap is a really, really big deal. It's in the top 3 list of US military strategic targets. That type of event is a trigger for 'the big one'. Folks in washington would be facing a choice of "Go large immediately" or "lose the empire". Which option you reckon they'd take? I'd estimate that within weeks/months of the opening blow (possibly a lot sooner even) a very large foreign occupation force will be engaging in cleansing activities in the land of Oz. Look up 'East Prussia' 1944-47 to get a feel for what it might be like. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_and_expulsion_of_Germans_(1944%E2%80%931950)Part of my family went through this catastrophic event. Yugoslavia/Bosnia was a more modern version. Civil unrest etc really is nothing to be concerned about. I find the whole 'mad max' thing quaint and amusing. Being hunted out of existence by an organised, well equipped adversary is a very different thing and has plenty of precedent. These events don't 'return to normal' in a few weeks, months , years. They drag on for decades and lifetimes.
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