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Post by You Must Enter A Name on Feb 27, 2014 6:57:19 GMT 10
Everyone talks about this economic situation as if it is all going to suddenly collapse, but looking at where it began and up to where we are now, it seems to be decaying, maybe not slowly, but I'm not seeing it as a situation where we will wake up one morning and suddenly BAM! now power, no water, no police etc, etc.
No I just see everything getting more and more expensive, more and more difficult etc, etc. I may be stocking up on things for a sudden collapse but my money is betting on something else.
They predict in the near future cocoa and coffee will be near impossible for the average Joe to obtain, due to it's limited supply and obviously high demand, we have seen over the last 10-15 years the steady rise in housing and property as well as the cost of living, while the wages relative to these costs have barely moved, I may become extremely unpopular for saying this but I believe this is how the government plans to fix our economy too.
Think about this, allot of our economic problems, not all but allot comes from an overpaid workforce, it would never work to come in and suddenly start cutting everyone's wages, but if you dilute the dollar down enough, the wage stays the "same" but is technically worth less. In really simple terms, if you double the cost of everything and keep the wage structure fairly well the same as it was before, you have effectively halved everyone's wages.
That's a very simplistic view of it, keeping in mind that would mean the majority of people would not be able to afford much at all above basic living expenses and the top 10-15% would be making all of the luxury purchases, sounds allot like the eighteenth and nineteenth century.
It's just my theory, full of holes as it is, I would like to explore it a bit more and maybe have some help from you all as I'm not really into economics so much, any thoughts? anyone?
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Post by pheniox17 on Feb 27, 2014 14:11:13 GMT 10
it's a political thing, so how will politicians advertise the state of the dollar??
I see a overnight collapse of the $$ is on the cards, but there will be a massive amount of warning signs..
cost of living is one of the warning signs so your kinda spot on with your assessment, power and such won't be cut off over night tho...
it's not my version of the collapse of society, once it collapses it will lead to another form of trade run by a "independent power" cough UN cough (this will be the collapse of our way of life)
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Post by graynomad on May 1, 2014 18:22:14 GMT 10
I'm of two minds so far. Here in Oz I THINK things will just progressively get worse and worse with pensions going down and fuel going up etc. And while we are pretty well prepared for more serious events the "slow decline" scenario is really where I'm aiming with a view to being very self-sufficient in the next year or two.
But I am prepared to be told I'm looking through slightly rose-coloured glasses and that things will happen faster and more catastrophically, as I said I'm of two minds so far.
______
Rob
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Post by squirrelbait on Aug 5, 2014 8:41:14 GMT 10
I see it as starting slowly, Gaining speed, and hitting critical mass.
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Post by Ausprep on Aug 5, 2014 8:46:43 GMT 10
Im with graynomad here. I feel the decline will be slow and (to most) very hard to see happening. Things will slowly increase in price, again with most not really noticing. Fuel will go up, we will notice but rather than act (how can you really with fuel?) we will sit back and whinge about it. Then unemployment will rise. As Rob mentioned, the avg pension will drop, rent will rise, living expenses will rise, and the flow on effect will become devastating for many. |
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Post by squirrelbait on Aug 5, 2014 9:07:37 GMT 10
Im with graynomad here. I feel the decline will be slow and (to most) very hard to see happening. Things will slowly increase in price, again with most not really noticing. Fuel will go up, we will notice but rather than act (how can you really with fuel?) we will sit back and whinge about it. Then unemployment will rise. As Rob mentioned, the avg pension will drop, rent will rise, living expenses will rise, and the flow on effect will become devastating for many. I'm just praying that it will move slowly enough that I can get enough buffers in place to soften the blow. I'm trying to get out ahead of it... |
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Post by Ausprep on Aug 5, 2014 9:11:15 GMT 10
Im with graynomad here. I feel the decline will be slow and (to most) very hard to see happening. Things will slowly increase in price, again with most not really noticing. Fuel will go up, we will notice but rather than act (how can you really with fuel?) we will sit back and whinge about it. Then unemployment will rise. As Rob mentioned, the avg pension will drop, rent will rise, living expenses will rise, and the flow on effect will become devastating for many. I'm just praying that it will move slowly enough that I can get enough buffers in place to soften the blow. I'm trying to get out ahead of it... I just hope its not that slow we don't see it coming... |
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Post by You Must Enter A Name on Aug 5, 2014 15:07:34 GMT 10
it's already happening  |
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Post by StepfordRenegade on Aug 6, 2014 8:00:51 GMT 10
I agree with most of the sentiment here - slowly the cost of living will rise (govt is already cutting many support services, adding a medical co payment etc, fuel cost is already more than double what it was when I started driving), people will whinge lots, it'll get harder and harder to get by, and either there will be a catalyst (e.g. natural disaster hits an already struggling '1st world' nation) or we will suddenly hit a social tipping point.
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Frank
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Post by Frank on Aug 6, 2014 9:50:57 GMT 10
Pretty much agree with what others have said. Slow decay, but it will reach a tipping point and there will be one event which will be the straw to break the camels back.
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AKM.
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Post by AKM. on Aug 6, 2014 21:02:44 GMT 10
I think maybe it will drop off in steps- there might be a fuel crisis where prices spike and stay spiked at several times what they are now, maybe a war or two bringing enforced austerity in some regard or other, a tightening of money meaning few will get credit, and it will be expensive.....could be anything. I have been reading up on David Holgrem's 'Crash on Demand' which is a bit scary. We seem to be heading into his "Brown Tech' economic model, while some folks like us are jumping into a 'lifeboat' model. holmgren.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Crash-on-demand.pdf |
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Post by graynomad on Aug 7, 2014 10:33:22 GMT 10
Thanks for that link, I'll read it.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 10, 2014 21:15:41 GMT 10
"Synergisitc systems don't decay they collapse".. I'll try and find the author for that quote...
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Post by Deleted on Aug 10, 2014 21:23:37 GMT 10
Everyone talks about this economic situation as if it is all going to suddenly collapse, but looking at where it began and up to where we are now, it seems to be decaying, maybe not slowly, but I'm not seeing it as a situation where we will wake up one morning and suddenly BAM! now power, no water, no police etc, etc. No I just see everything getting more and more expensive, more and more difficult etc, etc. I may be stocking up on things for a sudden collapse but my money is betting on something else. They predict in the near future cocoa and coffee will be near impossible for the average Joe to obtain, due to it's limited supply and obviously high demand, we have seen over the last 10-15 years the steady rise in housing and property as well as the cost of living, while the wages relative to these costs have barely moved, I may become extremely unpopular for saying this but I believe this is how the government plans to fix our economy too. Think about this, allot of our economic problems, not all but allot comes from an overpaid workforce, it would never work to come in and suddenly start cutting everyone's wages, but if you dilute the dollar down enough, the wage stays the "same" but is technically worth less. In really simple terms, if you double the cost of everything and keep the wage structure fairly well the same as it was before, you have effectively halved everyone's wages. That's a very simplistic view of it, keeping in mind that would mean the majority of people would not be able to afford much at all above basic living expenses and the top 10-15% would be making all of the luxury purchases, sounds allot like the eighteenth and nineteenth century. It's just my theory, full of holes as it is, I would like to explore it a bit more and maybe have some help from you all as I'm not really into economics so much, any thoughts? anyone? It's called GLOBALISATION and it's nothing new: any right wing economist will tell you 'free-trade' agreements are a lie. Barnaby Joyce told the nation that we all know they are a bit of a euphemism and the Judith Sloane called them 'preferential' trade agreements so it's all fun and games... |
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Post by You Must Enter A Name on Aug 10, 2014 22:19:44 GMT 10
Everyone talks about this economic situation as if it is all going to suddenly collapse, but looking at where it began and up to where we are now, it seems to be decaying, maybe not slowly, but I'm not seeing it as a situation where we will wake up one morning and suddenly BAM! now power, no water, no police etc, etc. No I just see everything getting more and more expensive, more and more difficult etc, etc. I may be stocking up on things for a sudden collapse but my money is betting on something else. They predict in the near future cocoa and coffee will be near impossible for the average Joe to obtain, due to it's limited supply and obviously high demand, we have seen over the last 10-15 years the steady rise in housing and property as well as the cost of living, while the wages relative to these costs have barely moved, I may become extremely unpopular for saying this but I believe this is how the government plans to fix our economy too. Think about this, allot of our economic problems, not all but allot comes from an overpaid workforce, it would never work to come in and suddenly start cutting everyone's wages, but if you dilute the dollar down enough, the wage stays the "same" but is technically worth less. In really simple terms, if you double the cost of everything and keep the wage structure fairly well the same as it was before, you have effectively halved everyone's wages. That's a very simplistic view of it, keeping in mind that would mean the majority of people would not be able to afford much at all above basic living expenses and the top 10-15% would be making all of the luxury purchases, sounds allot like the eighteenth and nineteenth century. It's just my theory, full of holes as it is, I would like to explore it a bit more and maybe have some help from you all as I'm not really into economics so much, any thoughts? anyone? It's called GLOBALISATION and it's nothing new: any right wing economist will tell you 'free-trade' agreements are a lie. Barnaby Joyce told the nation that we all know they are a bit of a euphemism and the Judith Sloane called them 'preferential' trade agreements so it's all fun and games... that's an interesting statement, care to elaborate? |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 21, 2014 19:41:47 GMT 10
It's called GLOBALISATION and it's nothing new: any right wing economist will tell you 'free-trade' agreements are a lie. Barnaby Joyce told the nation that we all know they are a bit of a euphemism and the Judith Sloane called them 'preferential' trade agreements so it's all fun and games... that's an interesting statement, care to elaborate? Economics is economics: the allocation of resources which are rare and the games employed to secure them. Globalisation simply refers to a global game for rare resources... it always was a global game but because travel and therefore logistics is so much improved these days the global economic game is just that bit more active. As for 'free-trade' well, why are there special deals between countries if it's supposedly free-trade? It's just subsidies on a different level...picking winners if you like! |
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Post by throwingbrick on Jan 12, 2015 8:56:18 GMT 10
There will be a slow build up with a massive amount of warning signs then one day when there's a gigantic second GFC is when you'll see blokes running out their front doors in suburbia with a rifle slung over their shoulder and looting would start.
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peter1942
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Post by peter1942 on Jan 12, 2015 21:29:54 GMT 10
It is interesting to read the remarks about the price of fuel.
Australia has the cheapest fuel in what we would probably call the free world and if you cast your minds back to about five or six years ago we were looking at a per litre price not far short of $2.00 in some areas.
The price of a barrel of oil today should be around the $100.00 plus mark but it is being kept low by the Saudis who refuse to drop production in line with consumption.
All of the freight companies have clauses that say that if the price of fuel goes up so do the transport costs and when that happens the additional freight costs will be passed onto the end consumers resulting in a reduction in their/our standard of living.
We have a shortage of jobs in Australia which is exasperated by a Federal Government who sends jobs relating to government departments offshore, (footwear for the Australian Defence Force). By sending jobs offshore the government is weakening the average weekly pay packet of all Australians who then want more imported products because they are, in many peoples minds, more affordable. Our way of life is being eroded on a daily basis and as a greater number of people seem oblivious to this it is also making it harder for those of us who are trying to better our lives.
We are already in a time whereby we should be living sustainably. Self sufficiency is a dream. Sure many years ago people lived a life of self sufficiency but in the main they also lived lives that at best could only be described as one of subsistence farming.
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Post by throwingbrick on Jan 13, 2015 16:50:03 GMT 10
It is interesting to read the remarks about the price of fuel. Australia has the cheapest fuel in what we would probably call the free world and if you cast your minds back to about five or six years ago we were looking at a per litre price not far short of $2.00 in some areas. The price of a barrel of oil today should be around the $100.00 plus mark but it is being kept low by the Saudis who refuse to drop production in line with consumption. All of the freight companies have clauses that say that if the price of fuel goes up so do the transport costs and when that happens the additional freight costs will be passed onto the end consumers resulting in a reduction in their/our standard of living. We have a shortage of jobs in Australia which is exasperated by a Federal Government who sends jobs relating to government departments offshore, (footwear for the Australian Defence Force). By sending jobs offshore the government is weakening the average weekly pay packet of all Australians who then want more imported products because they are, in many peoples minds, more affordable. Our way of life is being eroded on a daily basis and as a greater number of people seem oblivious to this it is also making it harder for those of us who are trying to better our lives. We are already in a time whereby we should be living sustainably. Self sufficiency is a dream. Sure many years ago people lived a life of self sufficiency but in the main they also lived lives that at best could only be described as one of subsistence farming. Totally agree with you, most modern Australian who aren't fisherman, hunter, farmers or rural folk wouldn't be able survive a week if they were dropped into the outback although i'm sure most shooters and preppers would be the polar opposite in similar situations it's pretty sad too see the outdoorsy and Australian way of life being spoiled by modern conveniences that alot of us take for granted. this video pretty well sums up the views of most hunters, preppers, fisherman and farmers. stay safe |
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Post by SA Hunter on Jan 13, 2015 17:29:34 GMT 10
I think it will be a slow collapse at first, with many, many warning signs that will be ignored, then a massive sudden collapse!
This collapse could be triggered by a terror attack, which has a sudden flow on effect with the world economy, or a sudden financial bubble bursting, that devalues our already over inflated financial markets.
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