|
|
Post by milspec on May 12, 2021 21:30:34 GMT 10
FWIW I created the China Watch thread some time ago because of the global deteriorating situation with China. Since then ....
China's 'diplomatic' & state sponsored global rhetoric has become increasingly hostile towards Australia.
China's internal dialogue has been busy painting Australia as hostile to China on many levels so as to soften its population to 'retaliatory' measures the CCP may employ against Australia.
China's military incursions in Taiwanese airspace have reached unprecedented scale and frequency.
Chinese punitive trade sanctions towards Australia have increased.
China continues its arms build up.
Australia has (substantially) and in unprecedented fashion boosted it's military spending several times within 18 months in response to the Chinese military threat.
At the highest level of politics and Defence there have been public statements attesting to the likelihood of armed conflict with China in the foreseeable future.
Chinese state backed media has proposed attacking the Australian mainland in response to Australia supporting defence of Taiwan.
These facts are in addition to China's often reiterated claims to reunification with Taiwan.
IMHO the writing is on the wall... in surprisingly bold print... war is coming.
The Chinese are busy desensitising and grinding down the Taiwanese military (and the rest of the world) with their air and naval incursions. One of these days the incursion will not be a feint.
The US and Japan will respond, as will India and Australia. China will counter attack deployed allied units and the operating bases which support them including Military bases in Australia which China claims are supporting the US. In addition to direct military attacks on Australia and naval blockades of our supply lines, China will disrupt Australian services and infrastructure with cyber attacks designed to interfere with our military efforts but also to bring pressure to bear against our civilian population in an attempt to put public pressure on the government to disengage from defending Taiwan.
I have doubts it will happen in the next few months because of the increased US military presence in Australia's North connected with the very large Aus/US biennial Talisman Sabre exercise... but when that draws down, China may just decide to crack on.
I doubt China would do pre-emptive attacks on allied assets, but when the headlines scream "China invades Taiwan" ... batten down the hatches boys & girls.
|
|
captain
Senior Member
Posts: 158
Likes: 155
|
Post by captain on May 12, 2021 21:38:38 GMT 10
I fully agree - and to be blunt, I have used this possibility as a reason to quickly move from the Canberra region. Yes, I know I have previously said I will stick with my urban fortress in Canberra, but things are different now. I am slowly packing things up to move to plan b (which is another urban fortress I have in another, and more remote area).
My thought are, when war does break out, I don’t want to be in Canberra.
|
|
lonewolf
Senior Member
Posts: 101
Likes: 68
|
Post by lonewolf on May 13, 2021 0:02:27 GMT 10
From news reports which i dont put much value in seem to indicate that china is on a path leading to more and more protectionism, (Protectionism is the economic policy of restricting imports from other countries through methods such as tariffs on imported goods, import quotas, and a variety of other government regulations.). Which could mean they are more self sufficient than the rest of world realize and are more than prepared for all out war.
|
|
frostbite
VIP Member
Posts: 5,719 
Likes: 7,119
|
Post by frostbite on May 13, 2021 6:22:55 GMT 10
So what are likely personal impacts for us if it kicks off with China?
Temporary disruptions to water and power supply due to cyber attacks?
Petrol shortages or rationing?
Cheap Chinese made goods and appliances unavailable?
Anything else?
|
|
Beno
Senior Member
Posts: 1,310
Likes: 1,433
Location: Northern Rivers
|
Post by Beno on May 13, 2021 7:02:39 GMT 10
Conscription. .
|
|
norseman
VIP Member
Posts: 2,237
Likes: 1,888
|
Post by norseman on May 13, 2021 7:29:13 GMT 10
The ADF will be required to face off against a serious opponent and be found to be universally lacking in numbers, logistics, preparation and in some cases the will to fight a real war where it is quickly apparent there is lots of dying happening! Political treachery and desertion will be rife and will further hinder our efforts!
|
|
|
|
Post by spinifex on May 13, 2021 8:19:13 GMT 10
So what are likely personal impacts for us if it kicks off with China? Temporary disruptions to water and power supply due to cyber attacks? Petrol shortages or rationing? Cheap Chinese made goods and appliances unavailable? Anything else? All of the above will just be 'inconvenient' compared with what may happen to our agricultural industries. I'm hoping we can still get the fuel, fertiliser and ag-chem in the volumes needed to run it from non-chinese sources. And given china supports other countries tertiary chem industries by supplying them with the bulk of their secondary chemicals needed to make the tertiaries ... I'm not sure to what extent that is possible. |
|
frostbite
VIP Member
Posts: 5,719
Likes: 7,119
|
Post by frostbite on May 13, 2021 10:03:23 GMT 10
So we identify what may become scarce,and stock up before the sheep wake up.
Seeds, fertilizer, garden tools, fuel, engine and lubricant oil, grain etc.
I'm too old for conscription, but if they form a Granddads Army I'll volunteer to carry the minimi.
|
|
malewithatail
VIP Member
Posts: 3,963
Likes: 1,380
Location: Northern Rivers NSW
|
Post by malewithatail on May 13, 2021 14:27:18 GMT 10
As China has supplied most of our gear, and spare parts, what do you think is going to happen ? It cant end well.
Aural sex produces eargasims.
|
|
|
|
Post by milspec on May 13, 2021 17:22:47 GMT 10
Whilst we normally produce plenty of food in Australia, that is based on a system of large farms and the ready supply of the inputs they need and the logistics systems which bring it all to market. That would suffer some disruption so I do think it's a good idea to stock up on what you need to grow and store your own food.
As for what else people will need, that'll depend on individual priorities. A good stock of fuel & gas are high on my own priorities list.
|
|
|
|
Post by spinifex on May 13, 2021 19:13:34 GMT 10
On a slightly tangential but possibly related topic:
An acquaintance of mine just bought a low mileage second hand 200 series land cruiser for $30 000 more than the cost of a brand new 300 series.
Why? Because the wait time to receive a new 300 series is 8 months.
Makes me wonder why the wait time is 8 months. Lots of different products are seeing longer and longer delays in delivery of orders.
Is this a Covid effect? Or a China messing with supplies of goods and components of goods effect?
|
|
captain
Senior Member
Posts: 158
Likes: 155
|
Post by captain on May 13, 2021 19:27:06 GMT 10
I think the potential for cyber activity may or would be the most devastating. Imagine any system could be hacked (or number of them) and this would or could cripple the country. A good example is the recent hacking of the pipeline in the States. Just goes to show what may happen.
So don’t think about traditional confrontations - think about what systems could be brought down and the consequences there of. That is the scary bit.
|
|
Beno
Senior Member
Posts: 1,310
Likes: 1,433
Location: Northern Rivers
|
Post by Beno on May 13, 2021 19:38:47 GMT 10
On a slightly tangential but possibly related topic: An acquaintance of mine just bought a low mileage second hand 200 series land cruiser for $30 000 more than the cost of a brand new 300 series. Why? Because the wait time to receive a new 300 series is 8 months. Makes me wonder why the wait time is 8 months. Lots of different products are seeing longer and longer delays in delivery of orders. Is this a Covid effect? Or a China messing with supplies of goods and components of goods effect? wow so it is true about paying more for 2nd hand landcruisers than new! duckduckgo chipageddon about lack of micro chips for products. It’s not really a joke anymore and is a valid reason why we are waiting a long time for ordered goods. |
|
frostbite
VIP Member
Posts: 5,719
Likes: 7,119
|
Post by frostbite on May 13, 2021 20:48:42 GMT 10
On a slightly tangential but possibly related topic: An acquaintance of mine just bought a low mileage second hand 200 series land cruiser for $30 000 more than the cost of a brand new 300 series. Why? Because the wait time to receive a new 300 series is 8 months. Makes me wonder why the wait time is 8 months. Lots of different products are seeing longer and longer delays in delivery of orders. Is this a Covid effect? Or a China messing with supplies of goods and components of goods effect? Same situation for caravans, and a year ago it was the same for mini bikes. It's probably a combination of production impacted by shutdowns, and demand increased by high income earners spending big on leisure goods (4wd's, caravans, boats etc) instead of overseas holidays. Try buying a 20ft shipping container these days. They want more for a used container than they did for a new one just a couple of years ago. |
|
lonewolf
Senior Member
Posts: 101
Likes: 68
|
Post by lonewolf on May 13, 2021 23:01:04 GMT 10
The ADF will be required to face off against a serious opponent and be found to be universally lacking in numbers, logistics, preparation and in some cases the will to fight a real war where it is quickly apparent there is lots of dying happening! Political treachery and desertion will be rife and will further hinder our efforts! I said something similar to a family member who is adf and it didnt go down too well unsurprisingly. I dont know, i dont do much research into it, all i said was if indo went to war with us they may outnumber us in boots on the ground. But i dont believe boots on the ground will win a war with china or indo. I just hope there is no war and this is all bullshit. |
|
|
|
Post by Joey on May 13, 2021 23:18:33 GMT 10
I think the potential for cyber activity may or would be the most devastating. Imagine any system could be hacked (or number of them) and this would or could cripple the country. A good example is the recent hacking of the pipeline in the States. Just goes to show what may happen. So don’t think about traditional confrontations - think about what systems could be brought down and the consequences there of. That is the scary bit. Hence why all critical infrastructures...power, water, sewerage needs to be kept fully offline or in a self contained system with no internet access to the core systems so that it can't be hacked from the outside. Even an advanced firewall system can be hacked if enough effort is put into it by the attacker. |
|
blueshoes
Senior Member
Posts: 609
Likes: 700
Location: Regional Dan-istan
|
Post by blueshoes on May 14, 2021 17:57:08 GMT 10
I think the potential for cyber activity may or would be the most devastating. Imagine any system could be hacked (or number of them) and this would or could cripple the country. A good example is the recent hacking of the pipeline in the States. Just goes to show what may happen. So don’t think about traditional confrontations - think about what systems could be brought down and the consequences there of. That is the scary bit. Hence why all critical infrastructures...power, water, sewerage needs to be kept fully offline or in a self contained system with no internet access to the core systems so that it can't be hacked from the outside. Even an advanced firewall system can be hacked if enough effort is put into it by the attacker. That's called an 'airgap' - and that can be hacked too, remember the Iranian nuclear reactors? They got a virus onto a USB and into the right hands and it ended up plugged into the system... "oops." |
|
|
|
Post by Joey on May 14, 2021 19:03:01 GMT 10
Still, it requires boots on the ground to compromise someone on the side rather then sitting behind a bank of computers on te other side of the world hacking away
|
|
|
|
Post by milspec on May 14, 2021 19:33:27 GMT 10
Still, it requires boots on the ground to compromise someone on the side rather then sitting behind a bank of computers on te other side of the world hacking away Hmmm lucky there are no Chinese people in Australia who might be working for the CCP  |
|
malewithatail
VIP Member
Posts: 3,963
Likes: 1,380
Location: Northern Rivers NSW
|
Post by malewithatail on May 14, 2021 20:13:54 GMT 10
Everything and almost everyone is connected these days. Is the solution to unplug yourself from the world ? or unplug the world from yourself ? I don't think that's possible as so many systems rely on other systems to function that to untangle them is not possible. As for ourselves, make sure we have backups of personnel data that's essential, and try to run under the radar so your systems aren't compromised.
Same with vehicles, most new ones are connected to the web to allow for data logging and maintenance etc, but can be compromised and perhaps even taken over by scumbags and crashed. The computers in modern vehicles are vulnerable to threats like an EMP/CME event, and can be damaged/degraded by a simple splash of water over them.
How much equipment have you got that is able to be connected by Bluetooth or WIFI ? I found that even our new solar regulator is Bluetooth enabled by default. What about your stereo, or tv set ? Even things like a toaster is web enabled.
Talk about a vulnerable society, and weve done it to ourselves.
Walk down a main street and look at how many free WIFI points there are, all possibly able to compromise your data. How many rely on their phone for security access to their house or cars ? The list is endless, and we haven't even considered e-mail accounts, or Facebook and so on.
We have a laptop computer that isn't connected to anything, all WIFI and Bluetooth is turned off, so our important data, family videos etc. are as safe as we can make them. Its like a backup, backup plan to recover from a cyber attack. Luckily, our inverter and other regulators are all a few years old and have no way of connecting with the web, so they should be right.
Barium, what you do with dead Chemists.
|
|
