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Post by milspec on Apr 22, 2022 22:20:24 GMT 10
Its 2032
China has spent 10 years bolstering its economic independence from the USD and the SWIFT payments system and Western sanctions by convincing its Belt & Road partners to trade with the digital Yuan. It has fostered trade deals with those countries to supply its raw materials needs and it has built its own high end semiconductor fabrication plants.
The Chinese military has completed its modernisation and expansion and is suitably equipped and poised to take Taiwan by force.
Diplomatic relations with Australia continued to deteriorate with more trade sanctions following military clashes between Australian and PLA military assets in the South Pacific. Chinese rhetoric becomes increasingly terse and threatening towards Australia as Australia voices support for Taiwan.
With 2 years left to run before its 2034 deadline, China launches a comprehensive, coordinated attack on Taiwan. Military forces from the Quad engage Chinese PLA military forces in defence of Taiwan.
China uses its military & influence to impose a naval blockade against a significant proportion of our supply lines and a crippling wave of cyber attacks disrupt every facet of daily life. The Quad responds by destroying a number of PLA assets in the South pacific and surrounding Taiwan.
In a stunning move the PLA responds by taking out the QUAD coalition carrier battle group defending Taiwan with a tactical nuke, seriously hindering the QUAD's defensive support for Taiwan and shocking the world as to what military measures China is willing to take in its war on Taiwan.
The US responds with a tactical nuclear strike against the Chinese city of Ningde from which PLA forces are operating against Taiwan. Over 3 million people are killed in the 'small' Chinese city.
China retaliates by making an example of Australia and US offshore territories. It launches crippling hypersonic tactical nukes against Darwin, Tindal, Brisbane, Pine gap and Guam. Defences are ineffective and each target is completely devastated with another 3 million lives lost. China further raises the stakes with threats of similar strikes against mainland US cities, Sydney, Japan and India if the Quad does not stand down.
Knowing that China is not bluffing and knowing that there is no defence against hypersonic nukes reaching their intended targets as witnessed in the destruction of Darwin and Brisbane, the Quad is forced to back down. Taiwan's defence collapses and it is 'Reunified' with China.
China's economic and military dominance is proven and a new world order emerges from the conflict as many more nations align with China in order to serve their national interests.
Australia ... the not so lucky country suffers economic collapse with ongoing direct and indirect Chinese punitive trade measures and critical military degradation from losses in Darwin and Brisbane.
Food for thought and perhaps not beyond the realms of possibility.
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frostbite
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Post by frostbite on Apr 22, 2022 22:36:01 GMT 10
A Chinese blockade of our supply lines is what has been motivating me to prep recently.
I'm almost done. By 2032 I should be finished.
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Apr 22, 2022 23:56:16 GMT 10
Once the nukes start flying it will be EMP nukes, with communication and internet taken out. Global economy and food riots will start well before 2032.
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Post by milspec on Apr 23, 2022 6:27:16 GMT 10
A Chinese blockade of our supply lines is what has been motivating me to prep recently. I'm almost done. By 2032 I should be finished. That's a prudent outlook IMHO. |
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Post by milspec on Apr 23, 2022 6:57:17 GMT 10
Once the nukes start flying it will be EMP nukes, with communication and internet taken out. Global economy and food riots will start well before 2032. Maybe re the EMP although I question what the goal would be in that scenario. I dont believe China is intent on starting WW3. My take on it is that they will use Taiwan as their opportunity to demonstrate their economic and military strength which can stand up to the West. From a prepping perspective I think its not beyond the realms of possibility that China would be prepared to make an example of Australia because we're not in the back yard of Europe or the US but crushing us sends a very clear message to the West. |
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frostbite
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Post by frostbite on Apr 23, 2022 7:39:02 GMT 10
I'm not convinced China would use nukes on Aus. They are expanding their navy and building ports in nations close to us, so all they really need do is close our sea lanes, launch massive cyber attacks and watch us implode.
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Post by milspec on Apr 23, 2022 8:02:31 GMT 10
I'm not convinced China would use nukes on Aus. They are expanding their navy and building ports in nations close to us, so all they really need do is close our sea lanes, launch massive cyber attacks and watch us implode. True, I'm not convinced either, and whilst drastic I think in risk matrix terms, its liklihood sits somewhere between possible and unlikely at the point when we become involved with a war on Taiwan. |
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tactile
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Post by tactile on Apr 23, 2022 16:17:10 GMT 10
I think China is the one exposed. They don't have self-sufficiency in energy or food for their people and I don't think 10 years will fix this for them. Their supply lines are more exposed than ours IMO.
Peter Zeihan has some interesting views on this (Find him on YouTube) and he has a pretty good track record...he predicted the Russian invasion of Ukraine in his 2014 book within 8 years.
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Post by spinifex on Apr 23, 2022 16:21:16 GMT 10
I think, if incoming missiles are detected heading towards Pine gap the US needs to make a quick decision to go Strategic nuclear attack or lose a critical pillar of their integrated defence system that leaves the continental US at risk and certainly spells the end of their global military reach.
I wonder what that choice would be ...
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bug
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Post by bug on Apr 23, 2022 18:03:02 GMT 10
A realistic scenario.
WWIII with the soviets was avoided by pure chance. Officers refusing to launch, a dude on a bicycle delivering the message to end the cuban missile crisis. Meteors and false alarms setting off nuclear attack warnings. I'm sure there's more that we may never even find out.
Now lets go with the Chinese officer not ignoring the incorrect order. Some crappy chinese equipment fails to cancel a launch etc. The CCP are not the kind to admit to mistakes and will more than likely double down.
China scares me more than the Soviets ever did.
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grumble
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Post by grumble on Apr 23, 2022 20:02:53 GMT 10
Nothing like a good nuking to make one reconsider their life choices
In my humble opinion i think sometimes the roles of nukes in the modern age is slightly distorted due to the massive stockpiles during the hey days of the cold war. While they are the ultimate weapon for destruction and fear there is a few factors involved that kind of determines who and what gets hit because everyone knows the moment you pop one off you face immediate retaliation from other armed players so then when choosing targets to launch at the priority system takes over for primary , secondary and tertiary of importance
What does that mean for Australia?
The designated targets which there is 42 of them in Australia are all very low secondary and mostly tertiary of importance its highly probable that we wont even get a direct launch at us in a full scale exchange between the powers simply because we are just not that important to neutralize in the event of a race to get birds away what is important is to try and take out as many of your enemies assets that can hit you back ( primary ) then destroy bases close to your boarder or housing assets that could assist in a secondary strike against you ( secondary) and finally use the few birds left if any to strike your main belligerents homeland cities
given the amount of people with toys out there its a low probability that a hostile state wastes one of their limited number of ICBMs to kill a few cows a kangaroo and pine gap vs taking out other sites that pose a direct threat
now i must add this opinion has been formed from a long friendship with ( family friend ) a retired USAF major who at one point was a ICBM commander so i'm fairly confident in his knowledge and assessment of the situation.
The main threats to Australia that he can see is being cut ff and isolated or an opportunistic invasion by a hostile state while our main allies are recovering from a major blow to their capabilities be it conventional or otherwise
but that's just my 50c worth on the topic
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Post by Joey on Apr 23, 2022 21:34:52 GMT 10
If Australia becomes a first strike target, I would see them using conventional warheads to target Pine Gap, Naval Communication Station Harold E Holt near Exmouth WA, and the 3 Jindalee radar stations.
Pine Gap will remove the allied ability for satellite control over the Asian and Pacific theatres.
The Harold Holt will cripple the allied ability for naval communications to ships and subs in the Pacific, Coral and Indian waters
The Jindalee stations will make us blind to further incoming attacks by missiles and early warning incoming aircraft and likely would be the first targets, if not at the same time as Pine Gap is hit.
With just those 3 facilities taken out, it would seriously cripple a decent coordinated effort to retaliate against the chicoms, which by that time would have surely built up its bases in the Solomons to be able to quickly enact a shipping blockade that would destroy the rest of the Australia economy within a week without firing any more missile or putting boots on the ground here, ensuring that Australia is taken offline and brought quickly to heel to the CCP jackboot. It wouldn't matter which party was in government at the time, they would become a CCP lapdog within days
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Post by milspec on Apr 24, 2022 7:17:37 GMT 10
grumble fair points if the situation is one where global war is expected. However the logic quoted by your friend does not seem to fit the current situation where China seems to be prepared for limited war over Taiwan and seeks to assert itself as the new leading superpower. That goal would become collateral damage if the Taiwan war became ww3 and all the nukes got launched. China knows that. So China needs to act in a decisive manner that hurts the west, establishes its abilities/dominance but doesnt trigger ww3. To do so it has to create its own 'shock and awe' event (that is us poor bunnies my friend). Had your USAF Major friend been retired for long? Aka had he retired before China started its recent belligerance. It may be the case that the doctrine he was familiar with has evolved given the contemporary nature of the threat from China. The catalyst for the 'scale' aka nuclear exchanges in my scenario was the recent book by retired Admiral Jim Stavridis (about war with China over Taiwan). He commanded nuclear assets and had an intimate knowledge of what constitutes tit for tat at a nuclear level and was particularly concerned about China (Chinese cyber in particular). I found his book somewhat alarming in so far as it revealed that limited nuclear exchanges were indeed on the table.
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malewithatail
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Post by malewithatail on Apr 24, 2022 8:38:39 GMT 10
Hopefully, someone will take care of Putin and/or Biden and fast track them to judgement day before they have a chance to press the big red button.
You know you own an old tractor when.....you check the oil flow by watching the drips.
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grumble
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Post by grumble on Apr 24, 2022 11:41:47 GMT 10
grumble fair points if the situation is one where global war is expected. However the logic quoted by your friend does not seem to fit the current situation where China seems to be prepared for limited war over Taiwan and seeks to assert itself as the new leading superpower. That goal would become collateral damage if the Taiwan war became ww3 and all the nukes got launched. China knows that. So China needs to act in a decisive manner that hurts the west, establishes its abilities/dominance but doesnt trigger ww3. To do so it has to create its own 'shock and awe' event (that is us poor bunnies my friend). Had your USAF Major friend been retired for long? Aka had he retired before China started its recent belligerance. It may be the case that the doctrine he was familiar with has evolved given the contemporary nature of the threat from China. The catalyst for the 'scale' aka nuclear exchanges in my scenario was the recent book by retired Admiral Jim Stavridis (about war with China over Taiwan). He commanded nuclear assets and had an intimate knowledge of what constitutes tit for tat at a nuclear level and was particularly concerned about China (Chinese cyber in particular). I found his book somewhat alarming in so far as it revealed that limited nuclear exchanges were indeed on the table. What you quote is very factual the players will always gamble against the house just like the Russians did with Crimea and Ukraine but they also stayed in the low risk field of play that wasn't as likely to trigger a global response due to treaties and alliances pacts. Being on good terms with the nation next door or some big defense alliance isn't quite the same as having troops and gear from multiple nations based on your turf just in case My friend semi retired in 2015 and formally ended his career in 2017 for that read did a lot of wind down duties visiting places and you know that stuff you do when they keep you around till your ready to finally leave your post and hand over the keys Now while he could no longer have his finger on the pulse of the new doctrine i do believe that when he says there is no to little chance of a limited exchanges Now maybe it does hold a place in some high level strategists guide book but if you take out some major capital assets like say a carrier group or strike a nation that has defense treaties and pacts with nuclear armed nations especially if they house assets important to your nuclear assets be it via conventional or other means there will be a reprisal so even if a hostile state did strike Australia to make an example of us to the rest of the world we are tied in with many other bigger players that all have mutual defense treaties with us and it would be in their best interest to honor those treaties and pacts. Its important that i am clear in saying that i don't have some fantasy that we will never be attacked because i do feel we are a tasty bit of geographical real estate i fear that the day will come when a play is made to "liberate" Australia from its oppressive occupiers or to remove us from the fight but even the rogue nations know it wont be a free shot its going to come with a hefty price tag even if your first attack was successful None of this bodes well for the average Australian no matter how or when it goes down and the probability of being geographically isolated is a very high probability so planning for having supplies cut off is something that every Australian should look to right after they get themselves set for realistic and probable local emergencies and disasters |
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malewithatail
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Post by malewithatail on Apr 24, 2022 11:53:42 GMT 10
I think China may just invade Australia. They need clean land and water resources, and then leave the desert areas to us.They are doing it already by stealth in buying up properties etc. We become dependent on them and wham, invasion. Dont think we can withstand an invasion from several million people. We are effectively disarmed, and unlike America, there wont be a person with a gun behind every tree and bush. We are history if they invade.
You know you own an old tractor when.....You know its up to temperature when it boils.
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bug
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Post by bug on Apr 24, 2022 12:26:33 GMT 10
Yep. Repeated surveys have shown that today's 18-30yo would mostly not pick up arms if we were attacked. A stark change from the past. Add an ever present 5th column and we'd be in trouble fast.
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Apr 24, 2022 12:38:35 GMT 10
Yep. Repeated surveys have shown that today's 18-30yo would mostly not pick up arms if we were attacked. A stark change from the past. Add an ever present 5th column and we'd be in trouble fast. Yip the US military has the same problem cant get recruits. Most don't make the entry physical. They also say the modern youth break whey they try to train them, they are not uses to physical activity and their bodies cant deal with the rigour of training. Will have to use drones and robots to do the fighting. |
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Apr 24, 2022 12:44:24 GMT 10
I think China may just invade Australia. They need clean land and water resources, and then leave the desert areas to us.They are doing it already by stealth in buying up properties etc. We become dependent on them and wham, invasion. Dont think we can withstand an invasion from several million people. We are effectively disarmed, and unlike America, there wont be a person with a gun behind every tree and bush. We are history if they invade. You know you own an old tractor when.....You know its up to temperature when it boils. A few year ago they said the same thing about Japan buying the world up and taking control of the worlds resources, till they had major financial contraction have have not recovered. China's debt fuelled economic expansion is coming to an end, not long and can buy all our assets back from them at half price. Soon there will be global desperation as global economy collapses then full scale war. Once the nukes are let loos there will be no holding back. Thinking the enemy will be constrained and not do a sneak attack one day and wipe you out. No one the nukes start flying it is all out war and a fight to the death. Since ;you like quotes here is one for you.... Albert Einstein is often quoted as having said: "I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones". |
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malewithatail
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Post by malewithatail on Apr 24, 2022 13:41:42 GMT 10
So someone does actually read my taglines ?
You know you own an old tractor when......Your local tractor parts supplier suggests that customers contact you for a magneto as they don't know what it is.
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