Post by StepfordRenegade on Jun 24, 2014 13:53:51 GMT 10
www.politico.com/story/2013/12/national-research-council-report-climate-change-could-hit-tipping-points-environment-100615.html
Climate change isn’t just a problem facing future generations, a new scientific report warns, saying the planet could suffer serious and abrupt climate threats in the next few years or decades — leaving nations with a narrow window to adapt.
The National Research Council report, released Tuesday, says even gradual climate changes that have unfolded over centuries will reach so-called tipping points that could result in abrupt impacts on everything from sea ice to ecosystems. The report calls for an “early warning system” aimed at better predicting when those impacts will occur.
“Right now we don’t know what many of these thresholds are,” James White, professor of geological sciences at the University of Colorado at Boulder and chairman of the committee that wrote the report, said in a statement. “But with better information, we will be able to anticipate some major changes before they occur and help reduce the potential consequences.”
The report adds to the growing body of scientific research warning of dramatic fallout from unabated climate change. Notably, it also echoes longtime warnings by activists and scientists that it is imperative to act quickly.
But many activists say domestic and international efforts to address the issue aren’t moving fast enough. The U.S. and other nations are struggling to come to a global climate change agreement in 2015, having been unable to reach major agreements at an interim meeting in Poland last month. And while the Obama administration is moving forward with greenhouse gas regulations for power plants, experts say rules reining in emissions from other sectors must follow.
“Although many projections of future climatic conditions have predicted steadily changing conditions giving the impression that communities have time to gradually adapt … the scientific community has been paying increasing attention to the possibility that at least some changes will be abrupt, perhaps crossing a threshold or ‘tipping point’ to change so quickly that there will be little time to react,” the report says.
Some of these abrupt changes, including melting late-summer Arctic sea ice and species extinctions, are already occurring. But scientists are watching for others, including gradual rises in sea level that suddenly reach the point of flooding low-lying cities.
The report calls for the development of an “Abrupt Change Early Warning System” that would “(1) identify and quantify social and natural vulnerabilities and ensure long-term, stable observations of key environmental and economic parameters through enhanced and targeted monitoring; (2) integrate new knowledge into numerical models for enhanced understanding and predictive capability; and (3) synthesize new learning and advance the understanding of the Earth system, taking advantage of collaborations and new analysis tools.”
The report, called “Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises,” was sponsored by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Science Foundation, the U.S. intelligence community and the National Academies.
The report was issued on the same day the International Energy Agency warned that global greenhouse gas emissions will continue to surge in the coming years, a move that puts the planet on a path toward blowing past a temperature increase target that scientists consider low enough to avoid serious harm.
Carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector will rise 20 percent by 2035 despite moves in the U.S., Europe, China, Japan and elsewhere to reduce emissions, according to the IEA’s 2013 World Energy Outlook.
“This leaves the world on a trajectory consistent with a long-term average temperature increase of 3.6 C, far above the internationally agreed 2 C target,” the outlook said.
Read more: www.politico.com/story/2013/12/national-research-council-report-climate-change-could-hit-tipping-points-environment-100615.html#ixzz35WdFwYD8
Climate change isn’t just a problem facing future generations, a new scientific report warns, saying the planet could suffer serious and abrupt climate threats in the next few years or decades — leaving nations with a narrow window to adapt.
The National Research Council report, released Tuesday, says even gradual climate changes that have unfolded over centuries will reach so-called tipping points that could result in abrupt impacts on everything from sea ice to ecosystems. The report calls for an “early warning system” aimed at better predicting when those impacts will occur.
“Right now we don’t know what many of these thresholds are,” James White, professor of geological sciences at the University of Colorado at Boulder and chairman of the committee that wrote the report, said in a statement. “But with better information, we will be able to anticipate some major changes before they occur and help reduce the potential consequences.”
The report adds to the growing body of scientific research warning of dramatic fallout from unabated climate change. Notably, it also echoes longtime warnings by activists and scientists that it is imperative to act quickly.
But many activists say domestic and international efforts to address the issue aren’t moving fast enough. The U.S. and other nations are struggling to come to a global climate change agreement in 2015, having been unable to reach major agreements at an interim meeting in Poland last month. And while the Obama administration is moving forward with greenhouse gas regulations for power plants, experts say rules reining in emissions from other sectors must follow.
“Although many projections of future climatic conditions have predicted steadily changing conditions giving the impression that communities have time to gradually adapt … the scientific community has been paying increasing attention to the possibility that at least some changes will be abrupt, perhaps crossing a threshold or ‘tipping point’ to change so quickly that there will be little time to react,” the report says.
Some of these abrupt changes, including melting late-summer Arctic sea ice and species extinctions, are already occurring. But scientists are watching for others, including gradual rises in sea level that suddenly reach the point of flooding low-lying cities.
The report calls for the development of an “Abrupt Change Early Warning System” that would “(1) identify and quantify social and natural vulnerabilities and ensure long-term, stable observations of key environmental and economic parameters through enhanced and targeted monitoring; (2) integrate new knowledge into numerical models for enhanced understanding and predictive capability; and (3) synthesize new learning and advance the understanding of the Earth system, taking advantage of collaborations and new analysis tools.”
The report, called “Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises,” was sponsored by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Science Foundation, the U.S. intelligence community and the National Academies.
The report was issued on the same day the International Energy Agency warned that global greenhouse gas emissions will continue to surge in the coming years, a move that puts the planet on a path toward blowing past a temperature increase target that scientists consider low enough to avoid serious harm.
Carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector will rise 20 percent by 2035 despite moves in the U.S., Europe, China, Japan and elsewhere to reduce emissions, according to the IEA’s 2013 World Energy Outlook.
“This leaves the world on a trajectory consistent with a long-term average temperature increase of 3.6 C, far above the internationally agreed 2 C target,” the outlook said.
Read more: www.politico.com/story/2013/12/national-research-council-report-climate-change-could-hit-tipping-points-environment-100615.html#ixzz35WdFwYD8
