Post by brad on Aug 13, 2014 18:18:31 GMT 10
So most of you will know I do a bit with data, let me explain a couple of things that data can do and why I get concerned about what the government is doing and looking to do.
At the moment you think of it and it can be done with data, I have built models that can tell you:
Who will pay or not pay a debt
Who should get a loan and how much they should get
Who will have an accident, value of the damage, accident location, who is liable
Who to hire, fire
Predict who will have a sick day and when
Who will commit a crime, what it will be and who the victim will be.
Yep, think of it and I will be able to build a model that will tell you. First few sound cool however the last one is pretty scary right? The truth is it isn't true, I can build a model that can predict with high probability who is going to do all that however it is only a probability rating. Problem is companies rely on these models and treat them as 100% accurate when they are more likely (pending on the input data) 80% to 90% accurate.
xkey score is something that will try to do the same, there are multiple predictive models out there that score everyone for different things. Facebook use them, itunes use them, banks, insurance companies and government use them. The only difference is most companies understand they are "Predictive" models when most government agencies see them as god.
If you are like me, you see something on TV that looks interesting and you decide to Google it, then you see something else so you Google that. So your search history may seem pretty random however it could also set of alarm bells and make your score reflect you are a risk.
How do models work? well basically you are getting data sets and looking at things you believe impact an outcome and give each variable (things like, age, gender, google search etc) a value.
So John Smith, Male, age = 50, single, living in low income area, occupation = unemployed would spit out a probability to paying back a loan as pretty low right. But what else can unemployed and his situation equal?
Single male = nothing to lose? unemployed = plenty of spare time low income area = could be high crime?
So would he be seen as a potential criminal or someone that has a high chance of committing a crime? Without knowing he has a disability or not would kind of make it hard to build a more accurate model. However just on the basis he is in a high crime area, unemployed and single means he has the motive, time and no one to answer too when he gets home late at night could put him in a high probability. The scary part is there are many people trying to build these models who have no idea on how to do them, they miss a lot of valuable information and make assumptions on crap variables.
I had a company tell me they built a model and wanted to give some clients the chop because the model showed they were not profitable, They told me the variables they used and I couldn't believe a company would make a call because of a model that had been hacked together my a CFO. The variables they had didn't reflect the client, however they did reflect they have some major staffing issues and the CFO needs to go back to school.
The power of data is extremely strong, the data collection that is going on by the government at the moment is scary because they can really predict and also plant ideas in your head pretty easily.
Think of it this way. If I had access to your computer, mobile phone and bank details I could convince you to buy something, go somewhere or even convince you to make a phone call. Why, I would know what you do on the computer, what you search , your interest, who you speak to (and who you call the most = potential higher trust in a person) and where you buy, how much you spend, get paid and how you pay.
This is more than enough information to predict where you will go, how much you will spend the next day, who you will speak with and what you will buy. But if I knew you couldn't be influenced easily by marketing I would target your friend you call the most, start feeding ads that relate to products I want you to buy to your friend. It is only a matter of time until your friend says something to you about the product.
A friend Googled GPS trackers and looked at a website (true story by the way). He told me he wasn't really going to buy as he already had a good source for them he was more interested to see different designs. He looked at the site and the prices where pretty good and the product was a little different but he decided not to buy as he already had a good source and had a few in stock. He said he was on facebook the next day and he saw an ad on the side of facebook for the same GPS units he was looking at the day before, so what did he do. clicked on the ad and purchased a tracker. It was enough to make him go yep I will buy that.
Go to ebay and search something you normally wouldn't, then go to facebook and see how long it takes before that ad appears. What to know how this works and how they know what ads to display on your computer.
If you use Google Chrome as a broweser install this (yep it is safe) chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/collusion-for-chrome/ganlifbpkcplnldliibcbegplfmcfigp?hl=en
If you use firefox www.mozilla.org/en-US/lightbeam/
If you use explorer, you really need to get firefox as you are really really exposed to hackers on explorer.
If you install on firefox it will give you a quick how to run through (click the icon they show you), if you install on Chrome it will not tell you anything however all you need to do is click on the icon that looks like a couple of circles in the top right of your browser (right after the url field).
This is Collusion, this was made by firefox as they believe everyone has a right to know who is watching them. Now if yo click on it you will see some bubbles, now open a new tab and go to ebay, then amazon, then itunes and a couple of news websites and have a look at how many bubbles you get, it will show you what bubbles are the websites you went to and all the rest are companies tracking what you are doing, where you go, what you see, how long you are there for and what you do next.
Ok so this is one of the ways you are tracked on the internet and how they collect data and can use it to advertise to you, and even build the xkeyscore on your. Add this data to a predictive model and you can really put ideas in a persons head and also predict what they will do next. Google something they don't like and your a potential threat, not right, not far but that is why I say we live in a dictatorship and why everyone should watch the movie (or read the book) 1984. Actually you can watch the new Lego movie as believe it or not that is actually based on 1984. I kid you not, watch the lego movie, if you want a copy let me know and I will email you a link to download it.
That is the world we live in and that is how a lot of decisions are made in the corporate world and the government. If you don't believe me (and completely up to you if you do or not) I really hope you research it so you can see for yourself. I know as I build these models and have done for a number of years, there are a lot of people out there doing the same.
At the moment you think of it and it can be done with data, I have built models that can tell you:
Who will pay or not pay a debt
Who should get a loan and how much they should get
Who will have an accident, value of the damage, accident location, who is liable
Who to hire, fire
Predict who will have a sick day and when
Who will commit a crime, what it will be and who the victim will be.
Yep, think of it and I will be able to build a model that will tell you. First few sound cool however the last one is pretty scary right? The truth is it isn't true, I can build a model that can predict with high probability who is going to do all that however it is only a probability rating. Problem is companies rely on these models and treat them as 100% accurate when they are more likely (pending on the input data) 80% to 90% accurate.
xkey score is something that will try to do the same, there are multiple predictive models out there that score everyone for different things. Facebook use them, itunes use them, banks, insurance companies and government use them. The only difference is most companies understand they are "Predictive" models when most government agencies see them as god.
If you are like me, you see something on TV that looks interesting and you decide to Google it, then you see something else so you Google that. So your search history may seem pretty random however it could also set of alarm bells and make your score reflect you are a risk.
How do models work? well basically you are getting data sets and looking at things you believe impact an outcome and give each variable (things like, age, gender, google search etc) a value.
So John Smith, Male, age = 50, single, living in low income area, occupation = unemployed would spit out a probability to paying back a loan as pretty low right. But what else can unemployed and his situation equal?
Single male = nothing to lose? unemployed = plenty of spare time low income area = could be high crime?
So would he be seen as a potential criminal or someone that has a high chance of committing a crime? Without knowing he has a disability or not would kind of make it hard to build a more accurate model. However just on the basis he is in a high crime area, unemployed and single means he has the motive, time and no one to answer too when he gets home late at night could put him in a high probability. The scary part is there are many people trying to build these models who have no idea on how to do them, they miss a lot of valuable information and make assumptions on crap variables.
I had a company tell me they built a model and wanted to give some clients the chop because the model showed they were not profitable, They told me the variables they used and I couldn't believe a company would make a call because of a model that had been hacked together my a CFO. The variables they had didn't reflect the client, however they did reflect they have some major staffing issues and the CFO needs to go back to school.
The power of data is extremely strong, the data collection that is going on by the government at the moment is scary because they can really predict and also plant ideas in your head pretty easily.
Think of it this way. If I had access to your computer, mobile phone and bank details I could convince you to buy something, go somewhere or even convince you to make a phone call. Why, I would know what you do on the computer, what you search , your interest, who you speak to (and who you call the most = potential higher trust in a person) and where you buy, how much you spend, get paid and how you pay.
This is more than enough information to predict where you will go, how much you will spend the next day, who you will speak with and what you will buy. But if I knew you couldn't be influenced easily by marketing I would target your friend you call the most, start feeding ads that relate to products I want you to buy to your friend. It is only a matter of time until your friend says something to you about the product.
A friend Googled GPS trackers and looked at a website (true story by the way). He told me he wasn't really going to buy as he already had a good source for them he was more interested to see different designs. He looked at the site and the prices where pretty good and the product was a little different but he decided not to buy as he already had a good source and had a few in stock. He said he was on facebook the next day and he saw an ad on the side of facebook for the same GPS units he was looking at the day before, so what did he do. clicked on the ad and purchased a tracker. It was enough to make him go yep I will buy that.
Go to ebay and search something you normally wouldn't, then go to facebook and see how long it takes before that ad appears. What to know how this works and how they know what ads to display on your computer.
If you use Google Chrome as a broweser install this (yep it is safe) chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/collusion-for-chrome/ganlifbpkcplnldliibcbegplfmcfigp?hl=en
If you use firefox www.mozilla.org/en-US/lightbeam/
If you use explorer, you really need to get firefox as you are really really exposed to hackers on explorer.
If you install on firefox it will give you a quick how to run through (click the icon they show you), if you install on Chrome it will not tell you anything however all you need to do is click on the icon that looks like a couple of circles in the top right of your browser (right after the url field).
This is Collusion, this was made by firefox as they believe everyone has a right to know who is watching them. Now if yo click on it you will see some bubbles, now open a new tab and go to ebay, then amazon, then itunes and a couple of news websites and have a look at how many bubbles you get, it will show you what bubbles are the websites you went to and all the rest are companies tracking what you are doing, where you go, what you see, how long you are there for and what you do next.
Ok so this is one of the ways you are tracked on the internet and how they collect data and can use it to advertise to you, and even build the xkeyscore on your. Add this data to a predictive model and you can really put ideas in a persons head and also predict what they will do next. Google something they don't like and your a potential threat, not right, not far but that is why I say we live in a dictatorship and why everyone should watch the movie (or read the book) 1984. Actually you can watch the new Lego movie as believe it or not that is actually based on 1984. I kid you not, watch the lego movie, if you want a copy let me know and I will email you a link to download it.
That is the world we live in and that is how a lot of decisions are made in the corporate world and the government. If you don't believe me (and completely up to you if you do or not) I really hope you research it so you can see for yourself. I know as I build these models and have done for a number of years, there are a lot of people out there doing the same.
