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Post by SA Hunter on Jan 27, 2015 0:26:22 GMT 10
www.smh.com.au/business/markets/predictors-of-1929-crash-see-65-chance-of-2015-recession-20141111-11k2cy.htmlIn 1929, a businessman and economist by the name of Jerome Levy didn't like what he saw in his analysis of corporate profits. He sold his stocks before the October crash. Almost eight decades later, the consultancy company that bears his name declared "the next recession will be caused by the deflating housing bubble." By February 2007, it predicted problems in the subprime-mortgage market would spread "to virtually all financial markets." In October 2007, it saw imminent recession - the slump began two months later. The Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, based in Mount Kisco, New York, and run by Jerome's grandson David, is again more worried than its peers. Its half-dozen analysts attach a 65 percent probability of a worldwide recession forcing a contraction in the US by the end of next year. That call runs counter to the forecasts of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group The two banks posit an expansion that has plenty of room to run. Advertisement "Clearly the direction of most of the recent global economic news suggests movement toward a 2015 downturn," chairman David Levy told clients in an October 23 edition of a monthly forecasting report, which at over 60 years purports to be the oldest of its kind. Why the gloom? Levy argues the US and many advanced economies still have balance-sheet excesses exposing them to renewed financial crisis. There is limited room for policy makers to reverse any slump, and low inflation risks tipping into deflation in many parts of the world. US exposure While the US is doing relatively well, Levy is worried that at about 13 per cent of gross domestic product, US exports represent their largest share ever. American companies also are getting a historically large proportion of earnings from abroad and households are vulnerable to any bear market because their ratio of stocks to disposable income is higher than at any point aside from the start of this century, he said. Granted, there have been some misfires. In September 2010, Levy told Bloomberg Television that he saw a 60 per cent chance of another US recession. Instead the world's largest economy has gained in strength. The upshot of the latest forecast is that even if a slump is avoided, the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates near zero until the next decade, according to Levy. "Without first strengthening substantially, we think it highly unlikely that global financial stability will hold together long enough for the Fed to signal and execute a rate increase," he said. Read more: www.smh.com.au/business/markets/predictors-of-1929-crash-see-65-chance-of-2015-recession-20141111-11k2cy.html#ixzz3PwCJXj1A
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Post by You Must Enter A Name on Jan 28, 2015 6:34:55 GMT 10
If you follow Ross Green an Australian financial guru yes a recession is coming to Australia, it will be brief though and be more of a technicality then anything else. Still deflation is upon us.
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dagyboy
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Post by dagyboy on Jan 28, 2015 8:53:23 GMT 10
the money crash will come because it is planned. the world will see the money system as we know it crash big time once and 4 all, because the elites plan on CHIPPING every man/ woman/ and child upon planet earth as their new form of buying and selling. the digital numbers will be called SDR"S, WHICH STANDS 4 SPECIAL DRAWING RIGHTS. of course they also plan on massive genocide of certain countries as they know the chipping of 7 billion people would be out of their range to get done in the time frame they will have to do it in. so a few billion upon planet earth will be killed off first. whether by so called NATURAL DISASTER or an introduced virus, or straight out nukes to do the job, the elites have planned for it all. when the pooh does finally hit, everyone on planet earth that remains alive, will be given the choice of the chip or die in some fema camp that is prepared already. this is not fiction or some fantasy or Hollywood movie script folks, this is real and is coming to a town near you. I suggest folks read the writing on the wall now before it is far too late.
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brad
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Post by brad on Jan 28, 2015 11:22:01 GMT 10
They are advertising that they are doing it!! America = BROKE so what do they do, just print more money with nothing backing it. Europe and Japan are doing the same, their currency is going south so they just print more money to manipulate the share market. It is the same as a company printing money to make their shares higher so why are countries allowed to do it???
AUD is down and dropping, the "debt" the government got us in that most likely doesn't exist will be the reason they will want to print more money. Money that isn't backed by assets is just paper.
It appears they are forcing countries to print money, because if they don't their dollar will be worthless in the share market and cause a FC. A clear indication there is going to be a massive change soon, when and what I have no idea however openly printing more money to manipulate the market is desperation. What I am surprised of the most is that people are ok with it, they don't see a problem with it. Yet a company does it and it is all over the news and people will boycott the company.
Selling all of Australia's assets appears to be the way the government is insuring we have no other option but to float our currency as there will soon be no assets left to have an asset based currency.
There will be a collapse, a very controlled one however who knows who is controlling it, the US will try however they couldn't organize a brothel with a fist full of fifties. It would more likely be the business community (the real 1percenters) that organize it as they will have the most to gain. Broke countries need money and they have it. When you thing about it, the debt countries are in isn't really the countries, it is the governments. The government make all these calls by themselves and expect everyone to take arms when they want to look tough, pay back their gambling debts and "lost" funds.
They should be fighting their own battles. I think WW3 should be fought by politicians and let the people of the world get on with life. If Obama wants war, fine! he can get off his ass and fight it himself and stop getting people to do all the work to support his own vanity. If the Australian government wants to go to war, cool. They go and our troups stay home to protect our country like they are supposed to.
We live on a country that is girt by sea, our troops should be here protecting us, not over seas fighting someone else's war. Yes I believe what is happening overseas is wrong and should stop however getting involved is just putting us at risk. These countries have their own laws, their own police, armies and so on. They can look after themselves and if they can't it wouldn't be the first time a country has pulled itself apart.
American politicians keep saying "they are breaking American law", American law applies in America not other countries so they have no business there. It is the same as some countries say America is breaking our law. Each country has their own law, if you don't like their law don't go there!
As soon as you try and force everyone to accept your views (like America is trying to do) you are going to get backlash. I love Australia however hate the political crap, Australia is fine the way it is there is no need to change. The government need to change and make things more realistic so people are not being ripped off all the time by the government however really our country has more freedom than other countries and we haven't had any major issues to date like other countries have. However if we keep trying to get involved in other peoples business and helping America force the world to follow their rules we are opening ourselves to trouble.
We are girt by sea! so there are only 2 ways people can get to us and I am pretty sure if we spent half the amount of money the government has spent on crap overseas we would have the best defense system in the world.
I still believe an army should be there to defend our country, not a politicians vanity or to fight a battle because a politician doesn't like the leader of another country. Our military should be there to defend us, protect us from threats coming our way. I am pretty sure they call it the "defense" not the "offense" force.
Yes some would argue that the best defense is offense and that is true in some instances however I think they have taken it too far and now our defense force are going to get involved in the currency war that is now becoming very aggressive.
So WW3, I would like to see all the world leaders that want to fight pick up some arms and go fight each other and let the rest of us get on with life.
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brad
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Post by brad on Jan 28, 2015 17:27:26 GMT 10
Good point frostbite, there are up sides to being active overseas as you pointed out however the downside is it can and some would say has made Australia a target. There is nothing wrong with going overseas and helping our Allies and the troops getting to see some action however there have been a lot of questionable wars being fought.
Understanding soldiers want to get out there and fight however it doesn't mean they have to all the time and for things that really have nothing to do with us. Just because they want to doesn't make it right.
Pros and cons to it, can really see the pros in the experience will ensure they will not freeze in action. I just believe it has gone too far and we are getting involved in things that can (some may say already has) put Australia in the sights of trouble. You see the images of war on the news overseas, what if those images are no longer on TV but at our front door?
Some people will say "I'll be right, I have supplies" but supplies will not help you if your area is under attack. Just because you have learnt martial arts it doesn't mean you have a right to go out and pick fights, even if you are really gagging to practice what you have learnt.
That example is a different kettle of fish however I assume you get my point, real action will ensure troops are ready for when it happens at home - 100% agree with you. I just think it should be toned down a little and we stop kissing Americas ass and blindly following them into everything, as that is the way it appears things have been.
Just my view though frostbite, it doesn't make me right. It is just the way I see it at this point in time. As more events unfold I am sure my view will changed based on my perception (which in the grand scheme of things is not worth anything) of what is going on.
But my view on making the politicians fight their own battles will never change. In history kings would go to war and fight, today the ones picking the fights are like schools kids getting their mates to fight their battles while they hide under the desk or a bunker while they make it hard for the people they "represent" to prepare and look after themselves. During the cold war (very recent history) people would think you are mad not to have a bunker, yet today people think you are mad if you have a bunker and the government make it bloody hard to have one now days, yet they spend all our money on building their own.
I thing think if you want to pick a fight you better be willing to fight it yourself. That should reduce the amount of conflict in the world as I am pretty sure Obama wouldn't like the idea of having to move away from the rock star lifestyle to a more realistic lifestyle. For the head of a broke country he sure spends a lot of money......
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Post by SA Hunter on Jan 28, 2015 17:35:38 GMT 10
Brad wrote: "We live on a country that is girt by sea, our troops should be here protecting us, not over seas fighting someone else's war. Yes I believe what is happening overseas is wrong and should stop however getting involved is just putting us at risk. These countries have their own laws, their own police, armies and so on. They can look after themselves and if they can't it wouldn't be the first time a country has pulled itself apart." No offence implied, but this is a naïve point of view. My view is that our Government enables the ADF to get involved in regular small conflicts, protected by the overwhelming might of the US and/or a coalition of willing partners, so that our troops may gain very valuable hands on experience in war fighting. This allows our 'raw' troops to get operational and combat experience, our equipment and procedures to be properly tested in a warlike environment, and for techniques to be developed. I don't know about you, but I'd much rather our troops learn this fighting some pissant war overseas, than when we have a foreign power invading our cities. And a s the father of a soldier with an operational tour, and with many friends either current or ex ADF, I can assure you our troops are gagging to get overseas into the action. And that our pool of experience drains considerably every 4 or 5 years. Yes frostbite - could not have said it better. When you join the ADF, you are doing a job, and that job is to be available to be called up to fight - regardless of your feelings and views. Some nations cannot look after themselves - ie East Timor, Solomon Islands. We led the charge and helped to bring democracy and stability to those nations. We were willing ( and rightfully so ) partners in the war in Afghanistan. Our aim was to enable the Afghan people & Govt to be self sufficient - that is why we trained their troops and Police to take the lead in the defence of their country. This is a job that was made with blood, and to suggest we leave them to their own devices goes against everything we went there for. We lost many young soldiers, but I bet, if you could speak to them now, they would agree with their job there. The job of a soldier is this - to kill people and blow things up!!! No PC here, this is why we have an Army!!! I've been in the ADF over 20yrs - never overseas - but I would have given my left nut to go. The experience the soldiers learn may one day save your life!!!!! |
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Post by SA Hunter on Jan 28, 2015 17:41:37 GMT 10
Ok, ( after smacking my own hand ) back to the subject..................
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Post by You Must Enter A Name on Jan 28, 2015 20:40:35 GMT 10
Is a recession coming? I don't know, probably. But recession doesn't have to be scary. If you can keep your job while others lose theirs you are in a good position to benefit financially from a stagnant economy. Recession isn't a time to sell, it's a time to buy. Thanks, you just tipped me over the edge, time to get aggressive with investments in property, precious metals and shares in CBA and food production and distribution. |
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Frank
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Post by Frank on Jan 28, 2015 21:00:06 GMT 10
Economies are up and down, always have been and always will be. Main thing is to save, invest, upskill or whatever you want while the going is good and be prepared for when things turn to rubbish. And if you have the chance (the spare cash or something that others want) when everything is down, grab what you can and enjoy the good times when they roll around again.
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Post by graynomad on Jan 28, 2015 22:22:43 GMT 10
A while ago I saw a post from a relative youngster, he/she said that their generation had no experience with the tough times, unlike their parents with the "recession we had to have" (RWHTH) or grandparents with the great depression. I can't comment on the depression (not THAT old  ) but I remember the RWHTH times quite well, in fact I paid off a huge house with interest rates at about 15-18% IIRC. Honestly if I hadn't heard about it on the TV I wouldn't have known we were in a recession. Quite clearly I didn't lose my (quite well paying) job, but also didn't know of (or even hear of) anyone who did. So I have to say I don't get a "recession", so the economy doesn't grow for 3 quarters in a row (or whatever the definition is), so what? I'm not an aconomist, but why does it need to grow at all? (Actually I think I have an idea about this, but I've never tried to articulate it) As preppers we should be (or at least aiming to be) at a state where we don't care if there's a recession/depression, it should have little or no material effect on us. I do appreciate though that we are all at different stages of the life cycle, and if you are 30, with 5 kids, a job as a labourer, and no assets then things will be tough and getting tougher. |
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brad
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Post by brad on Jan 30, 2015 8:10:12 GMT 10
Answer to the question "Is a recession coming?" Yep. I have been banging on about this for a while, 2008 was nothing compared to what is coming! My friend Sion has been talking about the currency war for a long time however last year it became more obvious to him that the C20 and in talks he was invited to following the C20. He was invited to speak at a conference after his speak at the C20, the conference was a room of members from the business community, large corporations and industry leaders. His words to me after the C20 "Wow, the currency war is stepping up", his words to me after the conference that followed C20 "Wow, the currency war is really stepping up and people are not shy to speak about it". Why am I mentioning this? he was blown away that the business community was willing to openly speak about the currency war, not only that, these business leaders are talking like preppers about the currency war. He said to me after the last conference that something is going to happen real soon if the currency war is being spoken about this openly in the business community. Simon and I both believe that the 2008 GFC was a "Trial run" and this one that is about to hit is going to be more controlled and hit harder. Think about it, countries are just printing money with nothing to back it to manipulate the share market. If companies did this the CEO and directors would be in jail. Why, because the stronger their dollar the less they have to pay back on the debt they owe, also the better their debt and the more control they have over the financial system. Here are a couple of links that show you different stories about what is coming and the build up. At the end of the day you have to look after yourselves and prep, stop buying shit that isn't going to help you. Food storage, yeah good idea because you may have to start eating it if you cant' afford to buy food in the coming months. But buying wrist bands and other "fashion" preps are not going to help you get out of what is coming. If you don't own your own land a caravan may be a good prep unless you want to live in the bush with your family. I know there are a lot of "focused" preppers out there and on this forum so this isn't a "your wasting your time and money" speech to you. This is a kick in the ass to the preppers that are just doing this on the weekend or wanting to follow the latest trend due to media attention. If you want to live in the bush because you can't pay your rent that is up to you however I am pretty sure you are going to get sick of that when your family leave you. I am not going to tell anyone how to prep as that is something we all have to sort out ourselves however I will make some recommendations for the newbies: Think about it seriously, fantasying that you will be able to live in the bush and ride it out is BS. If you have a wife/Husban and kids, sure they may go along for the ride short term however they will quickly get sick of going to the toilet in a hole in the ground and trying to sleep through a storm under a tarp. Say the GFC comes, you can't pay rent, you can't buy food. What are you going to do? With a caravan you at least have a roof over your head that you own so any money you can get you can use to buy food. Food and shelter, that is what you need. Could be a good idea for some preppers to start thinking about prepping with real expectations and not the fantasy crap they see in the movies, just because you saw a movie of a guy living in the bush doesn't mean you can do it for ever. For the past few months I have been prepping like mad, working my ass off to make sure the cash/assets are there for the GFC. That is why I haven't been posting on the prepper forums, from time to time I have been coming and having a look however for the last few months my life has been 100% prepper mode to make sure my family will make it through what is about to hit us. It really doesn't bother me when it happens because I have set a lot of things up to prep for it. Look at the stats on the current financial situation and look at the stats in 2008, you will notice that we are already in a GFC, why are people not bothered? because the government haven't announced we are in a GFC and people think it isn't happening until the government say it is. Go to xe.com look at the currency conversions from 2008 and compare to what they are now, "Oh shit" you may be thinking, looks pretty dam bad at the moment when you do that. Here is a link with a list of countries hte US owes money to (some of the countries), interesting when you look at who America is wanting war with and who they owe money to!!!! www.therichest.com/rich-list/rich-countries/top-countries-the-u-s-owes-money-to/www.cbc.ca/news/world/the-spreading-alchemy-of-central-bank-money-printing-1.2933964www.moneyweb.co.za/moneyweb-economic-trends/the-zimbabwe-lesson-dont-print-moneywww.canadianbusiness.com/economy/currency-war/Current Articlewww.smh.com.au/business/markets/currencies/australian-dollar-tumbles-as-global-currency-war-expands-20150130-131lcv.htmlThe Australian dollar plunged against the greenback in the early hours of Friday morning, as central banks around the world move to ease monetary policy against the backdrop of potential US interest rate rises. Shortly after 5am the Aussie was fetching US77.27¢, down from US78.75¢ at Thursday's local close and US78.86¢ on Thursday morning. The slide in the Australian dollar was accompanied by falls for the New Zealand dollar and Turkish lira as bets increase that the three nations will be next in link to cut interest rates. Photo: AFR The US currency gained versus most major counterparts as the fewest Americans in almost 15 years filed applications for unemployment benefits, a day after the Fed raised its assessment of the economy and played down low inflation.  Denmark cuts interest rates again The Danish central bank cut interest rates for the third time in 10 days to defend the krone's peg to the euro. "The growth numbers are good, the jobs reports are doing very well," said Georgette Boele, a currency strategist at ABN Amro Bank in Amsterdam. "That the European Central Bank will do that massive quantitative easing - that is a negative force" that contrasts with the Fed's probable rate hike later this year, she said. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the currency's performance against 10 major peers, rose 0.3 per cent to 1163.43 as of 10.53am New York time. It closed at 1161.42 on January 26, the highest in data going back to 2004. The dollar gained 0.3 per cent to 117.90 yen. It declined 0.5 per cent to $US1.1345 per euro after reaching $US1.1098 versus the common currency on January 26, the strongest level since September 2003. The yen weakened 0.8 per cent to 133.77 per euro. ABN forecasts the euro will fall to $US1.10 by the end of this year and decline to parity with the dollar by the end of 2016. The median estimates in Bloomberg surveys are for $US1.12 at the end of this year and next. Currency volatility surges Measures of volatility have jumped in currency markets this year as central banks from Canada to Singapore roiled markets with surprise monetary policy easing. The euro plunged last week as the ECB introduced a bond- buying program that was bigger than analysts anticipated, while money markets rates show Bank of England officials, who were last year forecast to increase interest rates before the Fed, will keep UK borrowing costs at record lows this year. JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s global gauge of currency price swings climbed to as high as 11.68 per cent this month, the most since June 2013, and was 10.87 per cent. New Zealand's dollar slid to the lowest level in almost four years in New York trading on Thursday morning, extending a drop from the previous day, after the nation's Reserve Bank hinted it is prepared to lower interest rates. The kiwi fell 0.5 per cent to 72.82 US cents and touched 72.65, the least since March 2011. Turkey's lira fell to a record low versus the US dollar, weakening 0.9 per cent to 2.4059 and touching 2.41481. Data bolsters $US strength "Just by doing nothing the Fed appears to very diverse compared with other central banks," said Jane Foley, a senior strategist at Rabobank International in London. "Even if they don't hike rates in the summer" it "will be hiking interest rates when other central banks are easing policy. On a relative basis, that really does underpin the outlook for the dollar." The Federal Open Market Committee maintained its pledge to be "patient" on raising interest rates at a two-day meeting that ended Wednesday. Fed officials have kept their interest-rate target in a range of zero to 0.25 per cent since December 2008. The dollar gained on Thursday in New York as US jobless claims plunged by 43,000 to 265,000 in the week ended Jan. 24, the lowest since April 2000, a Labor Department report showed. The median forecast of 51 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for 300,000. That helped push the greenback's climb to 9.2 per cent in the past three months, the most after the Swiss franc in a basket of 10 currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The yen fell 0.1 per cent and the euro slid 3.1 per cent. Aussie tipped for rough ride On Thursday, National Australia Bank market strategy director Gavin Friend said the Australian dollar was in for a rough ride over the next two years, whipsawing in the mid to high US70¢ range. "In 25 years, I have not seen a period of such currency volatility starting with the Swiss National Bank's move last week," Mr Friend said. "It will be US78¢ at year end and then US75¢ by 2016 but it won't be a smooth glide there. The dollar will be whipping around in this two-year period." The comments came as investors ramp up expectations of a cut to Australia's official cash rate when the Reserve Bank of Australia board meets next Tuesday. The market is now factoring in a 50-50 chance of a rate cut, up from a probability of next to nil just a few weeks ago. Read more: www.smh.com.au/business/markets/currencies/australian-dollar-tumbles-as-global-currency-war-expands-20150130-131lcv.html#ixzz3QFSGcdpa |
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remnantprep
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People do not exist for the sake of governments!
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Post by remnantprep on Jan 30, 2015 9:47:50 GMT 10
Have been trying to get hubby to get a caravan or similar for a while now for exactly the reasons you state Brad! I figured we would always have a roof over our heads and really how much space do we really need to live in? We are also buying gold sovereigns and old coins with 80 percent silver. These are less likely to be confiscated by the government then gold bullion etc. Our two main reasons for preparing are economic collapse and Ww3 (which I believe we are already in). If you can build up a source of wealth such as coins now, you will then have the funds to buy assets during the economic downturn. I believe during the Great Depression that people were selling luxury things like cars for very low prices. In Zimbabwes economic problems people did not want to be paid in cash but in items like good dinner sets etc. Went to an antique store the other day to buy some gold soverieigns and the owner was telling people how paper money in itself is actually worthless but things like gold have value and he said that when the economy collapses that the smart people will be those who have invested in gold etc. Something most preppers would know anyway, but was interesting to hear from a source like that.
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brad
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Post by brad on Jan 30, 2015 11:11:14 GMT 10
hey rem, prepping to me is an investment. I was having a chat to my wife the other week about prepping, she is seeing more and more reasons for herself why prepping is important which is good however frustrating as she is saying things to me like "we really need to prep more because I think there is going to be a GFC" and "I want a new house with a bigger bunker". These are good things however things I have mentioned many times in the past and received a "are you F@ing kidding me" look from her.
I have explained to her in the past that our bunker needs to be larger than our house sine we may have to live in it for years (pending on the situation) and the space required for water storage, waste, food storage, small gym, and oxygen systems, power generators and indoor gardens all take room and simply cannot fit in the standard bunker.
We finally agree with each other when it comes to only having things in the house we don't care about and are happy to leave. We are both on the same page when it comes to building the new house and bunker. That being said we are willing to walk away from each of our locations and leave everything behind if the situation calls for it. Like I said I see prepping as an investment and some times investments pay off and other times they don't. So walking away from something we have spent a lot of money on isn't an issue because we are walking away with our lives.
Part of our preps/investments are materials, container load of bicycles, very cheap now however if/when something happens and we are in the stone ages again, a bike will have a much higher value and people will be more likely to trade something for a bike instead of gold as they have a practical use for it. If nothing ever happens, it was just a bad investment and on a completely "unrelated topic". Know anyone that wants a bike - lol. No I think I will hang on to them just in case.
Gold and silver are good preps, don't get me wrong. However they are only worth what people can get out of them. A bike can take you long distances faster, they can be pulled apart and used to build farming equipment and modified to power machinery. Gold can only be used to trade as there is no practical use for it for the common man. It has it's uses but very limited in day to day survival.
Bikes, steel, tools and other items people will need to harvest their own crops and build their own shelters and equipment will end up being worth more in a complete collapse. Gold and silver will be more valuable in a less serious collapse, so they are good items to have as you never know how it is all going to happen.
A shovel today is worth next to nothing, tomorrow???
A bottle of water today is worth nothing, tomorrow???
If you are growing your own food you already know what supplies you need, that means you already know what others will need when SHTF and if you have spare that you can trade you will last longer.
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Post by SA Hunter on Jan 30, 2015 22:21:46 GMT 10
Great comments Brad & Rem - as to the caravan, we have a 24ft one, but my aim is to get some land (with water), get an old caravan, build a shed around it, and have this as my bol.
I know a few people who do this - get a crappy ol' caravan, gut it out, restore it for bugger all $$, and have another home!!!
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Post by graynomad on Feb 3, 2015 9:13:16 GMT 10
Yeah great posts. We lived for 14 years in a van (well motorhome, but same thing), it's quite comfortable and essentially free. In all those years we never paid for a single caravan park, and only a few national parks. Probably $200 in accommodation costs in the last 13 years on the road. If you have equity in your house you can almost certainly afford to buy land and a van or shed of some sort. I know that many (most?) people will turn their noses up at the thought of living in a shed but let me assure you it can be very comfortable, I've know many people over the years (myself included) who have done so. Here's an example  We lived under this tarp for over a year (slept in our 4x4 nearby) while I built Mk2 of our motorhome (see framework to the right). OK, maybe not suitable for a family of 5 long term, but the western world has to get out of the mindset that you need a big fancy house, or even a "normal" house. I'd rather have the above and $200k in the bank than a mortgage and a shitty job. |
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Post by You Must Enter A Name on Feb 3, 2015 11:44:52 GMT 10
Yeah great posts. We lived for 14 years in a van (well motorhome, but same thing), it's quite comfortable and essentially free. In all those years we never paid for a single caravan park, and only a few national parks. Probably $200 in accommodation costs in the last 13 years on the road. If you have equity in your house you can almost certainly afford to buy land and a van or shed of some sort. I know that many (most?) people will turn their noses up at the thought of living in a shed but let me assure you it can be very comfortable, I've know many people over the years (myself included) who have done so. Here's an example We lived under this tarp for over a year (slept in our 4x4 nearby) while I built Mk2 of our motorhome (see framework to the right). OK, maybe not suitable for a family of 5 long term, but the western world has to get out of the mindset that you need a big fancy house, or even a "normal" house. I'd rather have the above and $200k in the bank than a mortgage and a shitty job. I am with you 100% but have already made the mistake of buying a home, luckily a smaller one, in a rural area and at a low cost. Give me another few years and I'll be buying an empty block to lice on instead.... Hopefully. |
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Frank
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Post by Frank on Feb 3, 2015 12:21:28 GMT 10
We have recently purchased our new place, out of town and on a bit of land. Not big enough to be completely self-sufficient but big enough to allow good size vege gardens, fruit trees etc. Had to find the balance of size, cost, location and for where we are in our careers and life, it fits the bill for us. Main thing is paying it off ASAP as getting out of debt is our 1st priority, then we can start looking for something extra further away
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shinester
Senior Member
China's white trash
Posts: 3,119
Likes: 3,578
Email: shiny@ausprep.org
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Post by shinester on Feb 4, 2015 23:54:21 GMT 10
China - lying about their economic strength with fudged figures. Remember we're talking about a communist dictatorship! Starting to slow down those lies, effecting our economic figures. [drop in our exchange rate]
Yanks - lying about being able to handle their bills, in particular the social welfare cost explosion. With reducing GDP their ability to pay
European Union - Greece lied about their economy [which was far worse than they made out] which created major issues with their economy. Germany [the only decent economy there] bailed out much of the economic problems but are starting to catch up with their our costs of excessive social welfare
Japan - screwed
It's hard to see much positive in the economies of the world. I'm hardly an expert of course.
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Matilda
Senior Member
Posts: 859
Likes: 1,171
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Post by Matilda on Feb 5, 2015 6:53:07 GMT 10
AUSTRALIA: From DT: www.dailytelegraph.com.au/business/australia-is-at-debts-door-warns-reserve-bank-of-australia-chief-glenn-stevens/story-fnkltfm0-1227208404352THE governor of the Reserve Bank and the new head of Treasury have delivered a dire warning to Cabinet that if the government’s spending cuts, being blocked by Labor and the Senate, fail to get passed, then the budget is at risk of never getting back to surplus. The prediction of the nation’s future finances without structural reform was made in an extraordinary briefing to Cabinet on Tuesday in Canberra by new Treasury Secretary John Fraser and RBA boss Glenn Stevens. SYDNEY FAMILIES BREATHE A $140 SIGH OF RELIEF It is the first time Mr Stevens has briefed Cabinet in his eight years as RBA governor. The 20-page slide presentation showed the budget position continuing to worsen, and that even with an economic growth path of 3 per cent per annum the budget would continue to be in deficit beyond the 10-year prediction made in last year’s budget forecasts.
Labor has labelled the government’s spending cuts as “unfair”. However, Mr Fraser’s presentation to Cabinet showed the government was now borrowing almost $110 million a day to pay its bills due to interest payments on debt and the growing Budget deficit, which the Coalition inherited from the previous Labor government. Glenn Stevens, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. The projections show deficits until 2025, but now assume further deficits even beyond the 10-year outlook without structural reform to the Budget. Mr Stevens is believed to have warned about revised global economic growth figures. Treasurer Joe Hockey has been sharing the Treasury forecasts with colleagues over the past few weeks to highlight the mounting problem the government faced this year unless it could get Senate support for spending restraint. The challenge has become even more difficult with Mr Hockey promising to inoculate families from any pain in this year’s budget while trying to find further savings. The long-term forecasts from the country’s top two economic minds followed the RBA’s rate cut on Tuesday which will help alleviate pressure on the family budget. Treasury has revealed that the average family will now be saving $190 a month due to the combination of the scrapping of the carbon tax, lower petrol prices and the new 25 basis point cut to interest rates. It showed that the fall in petrol prices amounted to an equivalent cut to the family budget of a 60 basis point cut to interest rates. Mr Hockey yesterday confirmed Cabinet had been briefed on the economic outlook. “The new Secretary of Treasury and the Secretary of the Department of Prime Minister came in,” he said. “We talked at length about the challenges, but also reaffirmed our commitment to the plan ahead, which is jobs, families, small business and how we can grow prosperity.”
***** Did anyone listen to the PM at the Press Club on Monday? I was amazed at what the Government has achieved in such a short time, but much more could be done!! But according to the alternative socialist PM there is no financial crisis!! This is the bloke that will open the borders and bring back a carbon tax! And all the media can hammer on about is an award that has been given by 60 other countries (3 by NZ) by the PM. People need to understand that socialism (spending more money than what is coming in to government via taxes etc) has smashed countries from one side of the globe to the other.
If this government cannot restore the budget by getting it thru the SENATE, Australia will never recover. This warning by the Reserve Bank Governor is unprecedented. Where is the media?? Silence!!! Deadly silence by the media! Forget about the dole, baby bonuses, Medicare, free education etc. These things will be a distant memory. We hear about Greece but things changed overnight last week at the election of a socialist (communist) to lead the country. He has told the people they don't need to pay THEIR debt and he had the best baubles in the election so they voted for him. This is the sheep in wolves clothing behaviour by socialists. Sounds great and I deserve it but.......
The saddest report I have read on the Greek debt is thousands of Greek women - including young girls, travel to neighbouring countries to sell their bodies. If there is no work, how does one feed their family?? This is what happens under socialism when people decide its easier for someone else to pay for their schooling, medical, dole, baby bonus etc. It's happening right now in Australia. People are saying its too hard to take the medicine - let someone else take it. That's not fair. The middle-class does not exist in Greece anymore. The wage earners are not there anymore to pay the welfare. You have the dirt poor or the rich. Socialism. This is what happens when eventually you run out of other people's money.
If the Greek people thought that electing a socialist (communist) to solve their problems was the easiest thing to do, then they are sadly mistaken. Russia may offer to 'help them out', but communism has a terrible history where people are just pawns to be passed around a chessboard by tyrants. If Russia takes over their debt, Putin won't do it out of the kindest of their hearts. I imagine that Putin has already planned bases around Greece. He will have deep harbours for his naval fleet and access via the Mediterranean and into Asia. Debt comes at a cost. All I can say is I'm glad that we are prepping. |
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Post by graynomad on Feb 5, 2015 9:40:37 GMT 10
Blah blah blah blah, jobs, prosperity, blah blah. These guys all use the same buzz words, Lib or Lab, it makes no difference. I don't even pretend to understand the world's economic machinations, but it's pretty clear that most countries are in the toilet, it's just that nobody has pulled the chain yet. As far as I can tell the financial systems are just huge Ponzi schemes, billions and trillions created at the stroke of a mouse, where's the productivity to back it up? There is none, some bank dickhead just creates it out of thin air, then we pay interest on it. It's a sweet scheme (for them). It's not even fixable, we need a new system but that can't happen without going where most people don't want to go. Before long the music is going to stop, when that happens I plan to have already made my own chair because the Government won't be handing any out |
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