The Second Great Depression?

I agree, @mr Pete. All signs are pointing to an imminent economic downturn, and unfortunately we have a society that doesn't know how to provide for themselves and expects the government to keep them afloat. This, lately, has been the main focus of our preps.

On a related subject... Our family is chasing grass right now. Yesterday, I saw a place for sale in the right area: no price listed, but it said it could run 1,800 breeders. I told my father-in-law about it and he rang the realtor. They want NINE MILLION DOLLARS for it. In a nutshell, this is why we are heading for a collapse. There is no way to make money on a property that runs 1,800 cattle at two million dollars, let alone nine.

Something I follow on the side is crime rates... We are close to this depression, but been triggered by drugs more than unemployment....

But I can't agree more with a economic collapse on this scale comes with a trigger... We are too accustomed to pepper money holding some kind of value... Its generational... So would take something quite massive (you know like WW1 to trigger a repeat...

- and more people for the same or smaller areas of arable land.  Unlike back in the 1930's, there's almost nobody ON the land now, so when it was about 95% of people on farms, now it's less than 5%.  The problem here is that most of the work is done by machinery, with fuel.  Think about what what would happen if fuel were reduced or costs became too prohibitive.  Remember we have 3-14 days [I've heard that range] of stored fuel.  We rely heavily on modern agriculture which is fuel, fertilizer and pesticide/herbicides.  Without which, we would have large crop reductions.


Whilst I don't think we'd have zero fuel, as we do have domestic options, I could see large reductions in fuel availability.  These reductions would quickly limit its use to essential services, food production and food transport.  This would create massive issues with trade, creating far further problems.  Of course distance to market is a massive problem and if we have almost no fuel, we don't even have the horses to get the food anywhere.  Of course the farms need people and a massive migration would have to take place, though the standard of living for those moving would be very poor, though at least being around food, their food security might be sustained. 


When we're talking about therapeutic drugs, I will call them medication, are almost all FAR safer due to massive amounts of research and science and the continued improvements in past errors.  Science makes mistakes sure, but because it follows evidence and reason, it is willing to change it's position the moment something is shown to not work or not be useful for health for a person in this context.  We use synthetic drugs mostly because of side effects of natural sources and costs.   You can get asprin from certain tree barks, but you can make it 100% pure in the lab without the potential toxic substances and a known concentration.   If you had to have someone scrape the bark of tons of trees instead of paying 75c for a pack, you'd be paying $50+ for the same item and of course it's chemically identical, so the body doesn't notice nor care.  Synthetic or not makes no difference on a substance, as the substance is a substance. 

When it comes to street drugs, what we see now is more 'refined' and purified versions of drugs.  Instead of Coca leaves that the aztecs chewed on, we get cocaine and various derivatives that have come from that which are used in medicine.  It's both concentration [much higher] and the problem with back yard meth-labs not having to follow strict standards that labs do and so people can be given other drugs and or various poisons.  Even marijuana can be sprayed by growers with substances so people get a better 'high', often at a cost of their health. 


All of us are living better than any royalty from the 1700's.  We concern ourselves with the latest fashions, or what beer we're drinking or what car we're driving, so yeah, I would agree.  I've had a couple of tough financial moments [where you don't eat] and as a youngster have memories of marching 1km through a swamp, sleeping on rocky hillsides and working my arse off, so some people know what it's like to have it tough, but nobody knows like the tiny few still around what it was 'really' like.  I hear stories from my Dad about how he didn't have pants until he got to 12 and only because he caught enough rabbits to buy his own.  So, defiantly and what's called 'normalcy bias' [acting irrationally like everything's still normal] will leave most people stunned and not taking opportunities when they appear.  

Putting yourself in these situations either for real, or at least thinking about it vividly as we sometimes do as preppers [science has shown that can be almost as effective btw] is rather important.   Putting yourself in lots of different scenarios [at least imaginary] is the best hedge and best conduit to reduce the shock of change.   This is coming from myself, as a professional in the area of how people think.  This might be as simple as getting the 'conflict' cards, fun stuff like 'what would I do if zombies attacked now' [silly but also insightful] and so on.

I'll agree and argue that with 48% of families paying no net tax, with a great deal of our 'social services' taken care off *cough* [and as studies have shown governmental costs are typically 3-5 times the costs], with the police constantly suggesting that we are helpless, with everyone equal despite the differences in merit, ... I could go on.  So yeah and think about the percentage of people who have even an emergency kit or food as per the government/SES recommendations of 2 weeks.  I don't know that answer, though I'd guess it would be about 1% or less.  Then there's the political movements where you're a victim and you don't have to take responsibility for yourself *cough*. 

My professional angle of the appeal of government entitlement, is that because many kids have distance to their parents [various reasons] which with ipads, computers, tvs and wiggles *smirks* is that when the 'government' take care of you, for some it feels like the parents that they never had.  If appeals and doesn't fulfill that emotional need of being looked after and safe, so it's like a drug, more and more entitlement is desired to attempt to fulfill that need, to which of course it doesn't.  This makes people rather malleable to other actions you want to do.  Look at the problems you get trying to reduce entitlements [vote bribes].  Obviously there's more to it than just this, though a window seat might be helpful to get a gauge on things.

A depression would fix a lot of this when governments go bankrupt and the people living 'entitled' are the ones least likely to be employed because they have the least experience, have the least paying jobs and the worst qualifications because they took the easy road and didn't take care of their own position. 


Civilised would depend on definition.  If you mean 'friendly' to one another, then I would agree with you.  This is because communities in the past didn't travel too far as they lived close and worked close to one another and there wasn't a lot to do that would 'distract' you, like we do such as sitting in front of a computer typing on forums   Also being 'shunned' for being rude or worse would have a great effect because everyone knew each other and everyone would soon know about you and shun you from social gatherings [no internet], from trade and so on.  It had a real effect.  Today, we can live and work with mostly anonymity and we're not required to do such things and of course people really don't spend a great deal of time socializing like they once did.

If you had meant society and being more dangerous then this would be wrong as 'per capita' the various violent crimes are incredibly small compared to the past.  Kids are not nearly as beaten, there's not as many rapes [and much more reporting, it's actually 1 in 56 not 1 in 4 as political groups lead people to believe], not as many bashings nor murders.  It's a MUCH safer world we live in. 

Then there's the effect of age, the elderly aren't talked to much by their children and the young, despite their inherent wisdom and whilst tragic [some have lots of great things to say] it might also be a factor in older people reminiscing.  Every generation says the same things about the youth, every one.

This by Michael Snyder of the economic collapse blog. theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/the-stock-market-in-2015-is-starting-to-look-remarkably-similar-to-the-stock-market-in-2008 Use the link as there are graphs you can follow.

As a prepper, I like to look at what is happening around the world on all fronts and unfortunately you will not hear about any economic "issue" from the MSM here in Australia until its probably too late. I'm certainly no expert, but you don't have to be one to see that things are 'not quite right'. Oil, PMs, Us$, various indices, Euro, etc. are in themselves telling a story and its up to us to listen. I have access to the Internet so why not use it!

But behind those figures, there are stories as to why oil is crashing, why the Euro is in dire straights - because of Greece, why PMs are being secretly stockpiled by China etc.etc. There are many out there that make their living off fear and its up to us to disseminate, but there are not too many good stories out there. We are all prepping because we heard or saw downturns in economies stretching back generations and with the help of computers we have more at our fingertips than any generation before us.

Today my amazing Son turns 30 and he has a beautiful newborn baby girl and a wonderful wife. I also have a beautiful daughter and a future SIL. And Hubby who is my soulmate. They are why we are prepping. Easter means new beginnings and its a new beginning in preparing our little family for whatever the world may throw at us! We can never be sure what is coming but I thank God every day that He impressed on our hearts to prepare........Matilda.



The Stock Market In 2015 Is Starting To Look Remarkably Similar To The Stock Market In 2008

Are we watching a replay of the last financial crisis? Over the past six months, the price of oil has collapsed, the U.S. dollar has soared, and a whole bunch of other patterns that we witnessed just before the stock market crash of 2008 are repeating once again. But what we have not seen yet is the actual stock market crash. So will there be one this year? In this article, I am going to compare the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average during the first three months of 2008 to the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average during the first three months of 2015. As you will see, there are some striking similarities. And without a doubt, we are overdue for a major market downturn. The S&P 500 has risen for six years in a row, but it has never had seven up years consecutively. In addition, there has not even been a 10 percent stock market “correction” is almost three and a half years. So will stocks be able to continue to defy both gravity and the forces of economic reality? Only time will tell.

Below is a chart that shows how the Dow Jones Industrial Average performed during the first three months of 2008. It was a time of increased volatility, but the market pretty much went nowhere. This is typical of what we see in the months leading up to a market crash. The markets start getting really choppy with large ups and large downs…

This next chart shows how the Dow Jones Industrial Average has performed during the first three months of 2015. Once again, we are witnessing a time of increased volatility, but the market is not really going anywhere. In fact, after falling about 200 points on Tuesday (not shown on this chart) it is just barely below where it started the year…

When the market becomes quite restless but it doesn’t really move anywhere, that is a sign that we have reached a turning point. The following is what a recent CNN article had to say about the rising volatility that we have been witnessing…

The Dow fell nearly 3.7% in January, surged 5.6% in February and is down about 2% this month. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gone through similar sentiment swings. The Dow ended the quarter slightly in the red while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up a little bit.

Charles Schwab chief investment officer Liz Ann Sonders summed up this volatility the best — with a nod to U2. “Running to Stand Still: Wild Swings Taking Market Nowhere” is the title of her most recent market commentary.

What can investors expect for the rest of 2015? Probably a lot more of the same.

Now let’s look at a chart for the entire year of 2008. After peaking for the year in early May, the Dow started to slide. Things started to get really crazy in September, and by the end of the year the U.S. economy was plunged into the greatest crisis since the Great Depression…

Will the rest of 2015 follow a similar pattern?

A lot of investors are actually betting that this will be the case.

Right now, hundreds of millions of dollars are flowing into VXX – an ETF that makes money when the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index goes up. In other words, these investors are betting that we are going to see a lot more stock market volatility in the weeks and months to come.

And as I have said so many times before, stocks tend to rise in calm markets and they tend to fall when the markets become volatile.

So essentially these investors are betting that we are headed for a stock market crash.

The following is more on the massive inflow of money into VXX that we have been seeing from the Crux…

Ways to speculate on how noisy the stock market will be have exploded in the last decade with the advent of products tied to the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index. Strategies include relatively simple hedges against equity losses, such as owning a security that aims to mimic the VIX.

VXX, one of the most popular ways to bet on bigger market swings, has absorbed $715 million in seven consecutive weeks of inflows, its longest streak of inflows since one ending in July 2012. The infusion of fresh cash has continued this week, swelling its market value to $1.5 billion, the highest since September 2013.

At the same time, short-sellers in VXX — people effectively betting the bull market will persist — have dropped out. Short interest has slid 35 percent since October, falling to the lowest in more than seven months last week, data compiled by Markit Ltd. show.

And many of the exact same people that warned us about the financial crisis of 2008 in advance are warning that another crisis is rapidly approaching. For example, check out the following quote from Ann Pettifor that recently appeared in an article in the Guardian…

As Janet Yellen’s Federal Reserve prepares to raise interest rates, boosting the value of the dollar, while the plunging price of crude puts intense pressure on the finances of oil-exporting countries, there are growing fears of a new debt crisis in the making.

Ann Pettifor of Prime Economics, who foreshadowed the credit crunch in her 2003 book The Coming First World Debt Crisis, says: “We’re going to have another financial crisis. Brazil’s already in great trouble with the strength of the dollar; I dread to think what’s happening in South Africa; then there’s Malaysia. We’re back to where we were, and that for me is really frightening.”

Pettifor is right on two counts – another major financial crisis is approaching, and it is going to be global in scope.

Before I end this article, there are two more items that I would like to share with you.

Firstly, it is being reported that the IPO market has really cooled off in 2015. When the number of companies going public starts to decline, that is a clear sign that a stock market bubble is on borrowed time. The following comes from Business Insider…

The number of US companies going public has really dropped off lately.

“After a record year in 2014, the IPO market slowed dramatically in the first quarter of 2015,” Renaissance Capital analysts said.

The first quarter of 2015, which ended Tuesday, was the slowest quarter for IPOs since the first quarter of 2013. While stock prices have been near all-time highs, market volatility has been escalating, turning companies off from trying to unload shares onto the public markets.

Secondly, the San Francisco housing market has been a pretty reliable indicator of previous economic booms and busts. The San Francisco housing market started to cool off before the dotcom bubble burst, it started to cool off before the stock market crash of 2008, and now it is cooling off once again. The following chart comes from Zero Hedge…

The warning signs are there.

But as with so many other things in life, most people are going to end up believing precisely what they want to believe.

So what do you believe about what the rest of the year will bring? Please feel free to share your thoughts by posting a comment below…

Gray, I have often thought a lot about people hitting the rural areas of our country in a downturn. Without a vehicle or sustenance, I don't think they will get far as it's such a big country. I'm trying to remember what mum and dad said about the Great Depression. They were newly weds and their first home had mud floors and hessian walls. Mum said in the hot weather they would wet the floor (mud) and lie down on it to keep cool. But like many people, they had access to farms, but i cannot remember what they said about the Depression only that it was terrible. History tells us that many, many city men hit the road looking for work and some stayed around where 'work' was in the cities. Our population has quadrupled since then, with many more living on the coasts, around the capital cities, and I think it will only be those with farm contacts heading to the rural areas, very, very determined people (preppers?) or those able to get there by vehicle. I think if there is an economic crash though, transport will be for essential services only. I doubt if they will risk fuel seeing that we can no longer refine it. We do not have the populations like cities in the USA. Some of the cities in America is our total Australian population! That, I think would be a death trap. Imagine being on those freeways with millions of others looking for water, food etc. If you haven't relocated to a rural area by now and established a sustainable lifestyle in America, it will be very difficult.

AKA a Federal master key

Not everyone in a city is a sheeple! there are many wolves wearing sheepskins!
Many have vehicles and guns and the will !

In the 70's and 80's I met many survivalist/prepper types in Sydney though they just classed themselves as campers!

The overriding theme was if the SHTF they would pack there 4x4 and trailer ( most had 4x4 and trailers )
and go bush living on there wits. Stealing fuel and whatever they needed!
For most this was after there supplies ran out as a last resort and for a few it was a first resort!
And these guys were ALL well armed!
most of those I met would be old and grey by now but the principle holds, there are a lot of raiders in those cities more than most expect!
and they have friends!