paranoia
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Post by paranoia on Dec 29, 2016 11:14:35 GMT 10
Turn of the new year is always a time to reflect on the year that has been but also to plan the next. I've known my job has been winding up at the end of the year for a few months so I've been concidering the economy as a whole, both from a state by state perspective and an industry one, trying to decide my next move.
I don't really like what I see, particularly in SA and I can honestly say I think a lot of things are going to come unwound in the year ahead.
For those of you who keep an ear to the ground on this stuff I would love to hear your thoughts and predictions for the year ahead.
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Dec 29, 2016 11:46:39 GMT 10
The Chinese economy is falling over big time, with bond defaults, and fake bank guarantees on the bonds etc... I am expecting mass economic upheaval very soon, that will be global in nature. There are huge political issues coming up in 2017, with Trump (import taxes on China, unraveling the UN etc..), Italian banks being nationalized, French and German elections coming up, there is heaps going on and lots of potential for disaster..... Not good news.
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tomatoes
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Post by tomatoes on Dec 29, 2016 15:23:41 GMT 10
I've been into prepping since 1986, when I bought my first retreat, a 150ac parcel of land in northern NSW. (I was 21 at the time). In the 30 years since then 'economic collapse' has been one of the mainstays of concern for most of the preppers I've met. Some of them have even foregone personal economic prosperity due to their unfounded fears. And yet there's never been a serious economic downturn in this country. Sure, some industries have shrunk or disappeared completely, but in my experience there's always been enough good jobs around for someone who really wants one. I've never been unemployed, my partner and my kids have never been unemployed. None of my friends have ever been unemployed, except two who decided to have an extended break after one job ended. Both of those were back into high paid jobs in less than 12 months. All of us have either been retrenched before or changed careers at some stage. There is always work if you try hard enough to find it. And I'm not talking ad hoc casual jobs, but well paid permanent employment. Neither of us has any formal qualifications, except my son who is a tradesman painter and decorator but taught himself how to be a glazier, and now earns triple figures in that field. My mrs has been told she will be retrenched on June 30 2017, but of the 30 that were retrenched earlier this year, all have found fulltime employment. Some had new jobs lined up before the old job finished. One of my son's mates made 300k in 12 months by selling a unit he had put a deposit on off the plan. That is surely an indication of a strong economy in the same period that many preppers said the whole housing market was going to collapse. So despite all the doomsayers regurgitating the 'world economy is going to crash and we're all going to die' lie, the economy and the jobs and the potential to get wealthy just keep rolling on. What are the main threats that you prep for frostbite?
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paranoia
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Post by paranoia on Dec 29, 2016 15:58:48 GMT 10
I've been into prepping since 1986, when I bought my first retreat, a 150ac parcel of land in northern NSW. (I was 21 at the time). In the 30 years since then 'economic collapse' has been one of the mainstays of concern for most of the preppers I've met. Some of them have even foregone personal economic prosperity due to their unfounded fears. And yet there's never been a serious economic downturn in this country. Sure, some industries have shrunk or disappeared completely, but in my experience there's always been enough good jobs around for someone who really wants one. I've never been unemployed, my partner and my kids have never been unemployed. None of my friends have ever been unemployed, except two who decided to have an extended break after one job ended. Both of those were back into high paid jobs in less than 12 months. All of us have either been retrenched before or changed careers at some stage. There is always work if you try hard enough to find it. And I'm not talking ad hoc casual jobs, but well paid permanent employment. Neither of us has any formal qualifications, except my son who is a tradesman painter and decorator but taught himself how to be a glazier, and now earns triple figures in that field. My mrs has been told she will be retrenched on June 30 2017, but of the 30 that were retrenched earlier this year, all have found fulltime employment. Some had new jobs lined up before the old job finished. One of my son's mates made 300k in 12 months by selling a unit he had put a deposit on off the plan. That is surely an indication of a strong economy in the same period that many preppers said the whole housing market was going to collapse. So despite all the doomsayers regurgitating the 'world economy is going to crash and we're all going to die' lie, the economy and the jobs and the potential to get wealthy just keep rolling on. I definately agree there will always be good jobs for well presented hard working people but theres always a need to keep an eye to the horizon and make the shift out of an industry/location and jump ship before its actually under water. There can be excessive doomsayers on any topic but boom and resession do affect our lives and I think we need adjust the way we live accordingly (unless like I'm getting from your posts frost you run a tight budget all the time). I do expect, maybe not a full blown resession, but a dip in opportunities (particularly locally) and will be rearranging my life accordingly. I moved out to Perth in 2006 as there was good money to be had and I feel you need to go where the opportunities are. When I felt that was over (2013) I came back to SA to settle for a while and enjoy the low cost of living and land prices. It feels like given what is up ahead another move might be in order. I'll stress I dont think that a resession equals TEOTWAWKI but I dont think it would be wise to ignore the signs.
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Post by SA Hunter on Dec 29, 2016 19:55:52 GMT 10
Every September someone predicts a Financial Collapse - I even bought into it a few years ago - but - being an avid reader of current events and world news, yes, I think that this could be a very rocky year. Sure, the news on the radio was very positive with excellent returns on Super funds (yay), but the last financial meltdown, I took a 14k hit - doesn't sound like a lot, but it sure hit a nerve with me - I put 9.5% into my Super fund, and on top of my employers contribution, I lost all that years' contributions plus another 14k.
Yes, here in SA we are in BIG trouble financially - our govt spends, spends, spends, borrows more to spend, spend, spend. And, the waste of money they throw about is ridiculous. Sure, increase or add taxes, so we can spend more!!!
So, the solution??? Dunno!!!!
SA will be one blackout after another - I have to invest in a generator. The last big blackout, the 3 local supermarkets were giving away frozen/cold items to anyone who wanted them. That's fine, but who could cook them without power??? One servo here had it's own generator for fuel - cash only!!!!! (TIP - keep a hand full of cash about for emergencies like this)
China, EU, US, a lot of financial doom and gloom - I think countries will go further into debt, and then something will go "Pop" then the bubble will burst - in a bigger way than the last financial crisis.
Tip 2 - Prepare!!!!
Just my thoughts on this.
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Dec 29, 2016 20:35:28 GMT 10
If you, company, or a country spends more than you earn you go broke. There has to be an endgame to all the debt, as in the US, China, Japan and the EU, debt is rising faster than the GDP. The ECB (European Central Bank) is printing 80 billion euros a month and the economy is still shrinking. Historically no country in the world that has printed money has had a good outcome it won't be any different this time.
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Dec 29, 2016 20:48:50 GMT 10
SA will be one blackout after another - I have to invest in a generator. The last big blackout, the 3 local supermarkets were giving away frozen/cold items to anyone who wanted them. That's fine, but who could cook them without power??? One servo here had it's own generator for fuel - cash only!!!!! (TIP - keep a hand full of cash about for emergencies like this) I keep plenty of canning bottles, gas, wood and charcoal so if power goes out for an extended period have means to preserve contents of freezer. Gas BBQ and small propane gas cooker). Keep a number of bottles of frozen water in the freezer that gives a few more hours. Also have plenty of vinegar and salt to make biltong out of any meat that can be dried and preserved, does work better in the cooler months - drying meat that is.
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Post by SA Hunter on Dec 29, 2016 21:09:56 GMT 10
SA will be one blackout after another - I have to invest in a generator. The last big blackout, the 3 local supermarkets were giving away frozen/cold items to anyone who wanted them. That's fine, but who could cook them without power??? One servo here had it's own generator for fuel - cash only!!!!! (TIP - keep a hand full of cash about for emergencies like this) I keep plenty of canning bottles, gas, wood and charcoal so if power goes out for an extended period have means to preserve contents of freezer. Gas BBQ and small propane gas cooker). Keep a number of bottles of frozen water in the freezer that gives a few more hours. Also have plenty of vinegar and salt to make biltong out of any meat that can be dried and preserved, does work better in the cooler months - drying meat that is. You are spot on - I have a few butane bottle bbq's, with enough gas canisters for 4-5 months, plus 2 9kg gas bottles, and a 4.5kg. I do need to get charcoal but it is very expensive where I live. I also have a webber kettle, and about 10 bags of brickettes.
Yes, frozen water bottles are a great tool too - we were told (via the news) that over Christmas we could possibly have some blackouts, so we froze a lot of water bottles just in case. Luckily, we only lost power for less than a minute.
All my vinegar goes to pickling blue swimmer crab meat, but do have a lot of salt.
My big lack of is firewood - I really need to get some - I have access to a lot of wood, just been too lazy to get some. Just added this to my list of things to do.
Thanks for your post - good to see you are planning ahead.
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tyburn
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Post by tyburn on Dec 29, 2016 21:47:24 GMT 10
I'm in China. The government wants everyone to think that the economy is motoring along like always, however we are seeing more and more things that haven't happened for years. Stuff like shops staying empty for weeks or months after going bust (used to always be waiting lists for empty shops), small business people we've been buying from for years talking about closing down their businesses and going back to their crappy little villages out in the boonies, retailers not being able to find staff (salaries have stagnated, but rent and cost of living is still rising), construction sites closing down for annual holidays and not reopening etc etc. Once things start to really get bad, I imagine that the government will do what they usually do when they want the public to stop complaining -- manufacture a threat and get people's eyes looking "over there" (ie. black flag ops). There have been anti-foreign riots before over various things, but they've all died down after a few weeks. The one thing I and other expats I know worry about now is that Trump will start that trade war (or even just a twitter war) with China, which will end up with all the expats paying the price. I actually know a French guy who paid the price for the Dalai Lama visiting Paris a few years ago - he took his wife and kids overseas for a short trip to Thailand, the DL visited Paris, and he then couldn't get his Chinese visa renewed for months. The fact that he had a business in China (that had been run by his family for 40 years) and had hundreds of staff was ignored, with visa staff basically just saying the French weren't welcome into the country. I dunno how this was supposed to help the Chinese government though, as it basically just sped up plans the family had for closing down all their factories and just outsourcing production as orders came in. So, loss of employment for hundreds of loyal staff, loss of tax dollars for the government, all becaus ethe guy happened to be French.
Long story short, a lot of expats are now getting there exit plans in place, funnelling their cash overseas, getting visas for their Chinese spouses etc. (basically extreme prepping).
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Post by graynomad on Dec 29, 2016 22:21:48 GMT 10
... My big lack of is firewood - I really need to get some - I have access to a lot of wood, just been too lazy to get some. Just added this to my list of things to do.
I'm stocking up for next winter. We have heaps of fallen and standing dead trees but a tree fell at a neighbour's recently so I've been cutting that up while it's green. Got maybe 1/4 of the tree so far. I've seen recessions come and go, none of them had any affect on me and that's when I had debts. These days I couldn't really give a toss. I think "they" will either keep things afloat or let it sink when Trump gets in so they can blame the right wingers. Either way, short of full-blown WROL/TEOTWAWKI I suspect it'll just wash over me. That said things are a little tight at present
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Post by SA Hunter on Dec 30, 2016 9:32:49 GMT 10
"That said things are a little tight at present"
GN - I can see things are very tight atm - otherwise you wouldn't be drinking VB!!!!!
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Dec 30, 2016 9:58:39 GMT 10
"That said things are a little tight at present" GN - I can see things are very tight atm - otherwise you wouldn't be drinking VB!!!!! Ok, I thought the VB was to power the chainsaw . There are a lot of potential black swan events that could cause the global system to fail as it is very fragile, just need the first dominoes to be tipped. US west coast is well overdue for a megga +8 quake. QUAKE ALERT: Fears of BIG ONE coming as US hit by EIGHT tremors in an hourwww.express.co.uk/news/world/748189/Earthquakes-big-one-coming-California-eight-quakes-hour-weather
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shinester
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Post by shinester on Dec 30, 2016 10:00:09 GMT 10
Good to see you're stocking up on those cans Gray. I suppose the wood is useful also. ---------
E.Collapse. - all economies go up and down. If you're a prepper, can you feed the people around you? I would hope you can. Do you have a roof over you head? What about a haphazard water supply? Can you protect yourself and do you have security measures if things got 'somewhat bad' but not SHTF? Isn't that what matters? The basics?
Taking stock of a Venezuelan or Argentina type collapse right now, do you have what you 'need'. I don't need to pay the power bill, nor do I need someone to keep the power on, I have enough solar to keep me going for most things, though probably not enough panels for the big fridge, though I have a small one that I can easily run. If food supplies are disruptive then I don't need to buy food at all for quite a while. Of course I might 'look' like I'm looking for food. Do I need a water supply? I have some saved and I can collect more than enough. If anything such an event would be disruptive for sure, though I'd get on with things just fine, even if I have to implement an increased security plan.
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Post by graynomad on Dec 30, 2016 12:23:39 GMT 10
"That said things are a little tight at present" GN - I can see things are very tight atm - otherwise you wouldn't be drinking VB!!!!! Things would have to be desperate indeed for me to buy VB. No a neighbour walked past while hitching into the pub in town. He had 4 cans on him to tide him over for the trip, so I did the neighbourly thing and helped him drink them.
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Post by graynomad on Jan 2, 2017 21:00:44 GMT 10
I like Mr Safety, wearing helmet and hearing protection, and drinking beer whilst operating a chainsaw. Awesome! You don't cut those sections all the way through on the first cut? Seems like an easier way to cut up a log. Yep, safety first, that's my moto. Normally I find that logs are on the ground so I can't cut all the way through, I cut most of the way then roll the log over. In this case a lot of the log is off the ground, but my bar wasn't long enough to do it in one cut anyway.
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Post by Fractus on Jan 7, 2017 13:42:33 GMT 10
I cannot believe you left the can in the sun. That is very English. Apparently the cold beer hurts their teeth.
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Post by selfsufficient on Feb 20, 2017 4:55:17 GMT 10
There is still some time to run. 2017 will be a good year for the stock market, with only small dips. House prices will vary over the country as people try to preserve their investments. These will dip nationally on a larger scale about 2019 Interest rates may increase slightly in the 3rd quarter to test resistance. Small conflicts caused by mistrust and leftist goals will develop toward end of year, but mainly next year. Some will have superpower sponsorship in the back ground. Large scale conflicts developing about 2020 and depending on black swan events may be ww3 about 2021-2023 Climate will continue to cool with swings in extremes occuring. Winters will definitely become harder in the Northern Hemisphere And the list goes on
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