tomatoes
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Post by tomatoes on Aug 11, 2017 12:32:57 GMT 10
I'd be interested in people's thoughts on the impact of this on Australia.
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Aug 11, 2017 14:40:33 GMT 10
I'd be interested in people's thoughts on the impact of this on Australia. That was discussed in a few posts back. China and Russia both share a border with N.Korea and don't want refugees and have put extra military on the borders The war will most likely end up with the unification of the Korea's which will make both Russia and China very nerves due to having US troops on their southern border... China just came out with a statement that the US should back down and it is not a loss of face or pride as better to prevent a war. They will try and prevent the war for political reasons. Wars are expensive and it will cost Australia, Our largest trading partner (China) might put sanctions or tariffs on Aus. it is an overnight economic tragedy for Australia. At best a major disruption in shipping and global trade. Most of Australian fuel is imported through the refineries in Singapore, war in the south China sea - could mean major disruption and fuel rationing and economic mayhem. What is the likelihood that the war escalates and other countries are drawn into it, with China about to have a go at India the whole region can unravel. |
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Aug 11, 2017 14:51:43 GMT 10
If N.Korea manages to hit S.Korea with a nuke it will impact global GDP and trade. S.Korea is 2% of global trade and make many components that are used by other countries. Australia being an export country for coal and iron ore and other mineral it can affect thing negativley. If Japan is nuked in the fray then stock markets could crash over night and cause the current banking system to fail. All the worlds bonds, banks, and markets are a house of cards waiting to fail - it can be the big pin that pricks the bubbles and takes the whole global fraud economic system down. Bunker sales have escalated in Japan and US. Stock markets have already had a big down swing. So your super has already been affected. ASX down 1.3% today Global stock markets are a sea of red today as a result so there has been some impact already. money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/asia/ |
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Post by SA Hunter on Aug 11, 2017 20:51:19 GMT 10
China want NK to remain - it is a buffer between China & the Allies (incl Sth Korea, USA etc). If it does turn into a shooting match, I think it will be non nuke - too much can go wrong, and I think China will pressure NK to avoid nukes - they have warned the US that they will retaliate if NK is attacked first. www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/donald-trump-on-north-korea-maybe-i-wasnt-tough-enough-with-fire-and-fury-line/news-story/b7f0b3cff3592f475c8883c306f696a2Of course we will get involved, we too much at stake - ie our reliance on China for exports/imports, and the flow of oil here. We will want a quick and hopefully painless victory. Navy & Air Forces first, then Army for any occupation or defence of other allied nations. Me, I think this is an ego trip to see who has the biggest "Missile". But, if only I had tomorrows paper delivered today! |
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Aug 11, 2017 21:48:23 GMT 10
China want NK to remain - it is a buffer between China & the Allies (incl Sth Korea, USA etc). If it does turn into a shooting match, I think it will be non nuke - too much can go wrong, and I think China will pressure NK to avoid nukes - they have warned the US that they will retaliate if NK is attacked first. www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/donald-trump-on-north-korea-maybe-i-wasnt-tough-enough-with-fire-and-fury-line/news-story/b7f0b3cff3592f475c8883c306f696a2Of course we will get involved, we too much at stake - ie our reliance on China for exports/imports, and the flow of oil here. We will want a quick and hopefully painless victory. Navy & Air Forces first, then Army for any occupation or defence of other allied nations. Me, I think this is an ego trip to see who has the biggest "Missile". But, if only I had tomorrows paper delivered today! Very true, but in a war if you are being crushed and your back is to the wall with nothing to loose - the nukes will fly.... The US will just have to hope they are able to destroy NK nuke before they can be activated or delivered... What I have been reading is that N.Korea has been planing for 5 decades and most of their military is in spread out in underground tunnels including their artillery, the first sign of war they come out and rain millions of missiles onto Seoul 35km from the border. There is only bad options with N.Korea but to leave the situation as it is and do nothing is not an options so Trump has to do something and it can only end badly.... The latest sanctions on NK will force Kim hand. but will China and Russia actually enforce the sanctions, I think unlikely.... |
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Aug 11, 2017 22:20:11 GMT 10
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Post by Peter on Aug 11, 2017 22:37:27 GMT 10
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: there are only four ways out:
1) Kim Jong-il initiates reunification with South Korea involving his surrender. This won't happen as he's batcrap crazy.
2) Kim Jong-il is assassinated by someone within his own senior ranks. This won't happen as he holds them in a very tight grip of fear. The penalties to be paid aren't worth it for his inner circle.
3) An assassin could take Kim Jong-il out. It's unlikely that anyone could get close enough, except those in his inner circle. See point 2 above.
4) Someone could bomb the crap out of NK. The problem is knowing where exactly Kim Jong-il is, and the risk of civilian deaths.
The only hope I see without major war starting is in point 3. If a South Korean operative could infiltrate NK (I'm assuming that anyone who isn't a native speaker of the Korean language would stand out like a sore thumb, although US/USSR espionage during the cold war could contradict me here) they could potentially take out Kim Jong-il without anyone knowing who did it (although there would be plenty of suspicions). One would then hope that his remaining inner circle would see the folly in continuing their current regime and seek reunification with the south.
I live in hope...
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tomatoes
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Post by tomatoes on Aug 12, 2017 7:36:56 GMT 10
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blueshoes
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Post by blueshoes on Aug 14, 2017 8:26:43 GMT 10
Was it here that someone asked why the US doesn't just pull a stuxnet on NK to disable their arms manufacturing and nullify them that way? That could be a fourth possible option that might buy time to defuse things
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gziggla
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Post by gziggla on Aug 16, 2017 22:56:57 GMT 10
I hope there's no truth to it. NK's threats seem shallow and empty. Looks convenient how they first blocked every bit of info from exiting and then started threatening their enemies on how NK has their number.. I've followed American MSM for a while and seems they, too were running out of news because apparently, what happens in NK stays in NK. Honestly, I'd be surprised if they even have electricity, transportation, education and medical facilities across the nation, especially considering the fact they're cut off from the 1st world.
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tomatoes
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Post by tomatoes on Aug 29, 2017 8:25:00 GMT 10
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