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Post by spinifex on Aug 22, 2019 9:42:55 GMT 10
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Post by spinifex on Aug 1, 2020 14:05:35 GMT 10
I think this forecaster (Kevin Long) is on the money with his long range forecast released in 2010. Based on how the cropping season is shaping up in SA his shorter range,, more detailed stuff is looking accurate too. After a cracker start ... July has been abnormally dry and abnormally cold where we live. Frosts for the third year in a row now (and none for the 12 years before that!). Abnormal amount of clear sunny days with warm-ish northerly breezes at a time when it should be regularly cloudy, rainy and with westerlies and southerlies. It's basically the weather of early October but it stared in July. In his more detailed forecasts from 3 years ago he said this year will be worse than last two for dryness (both of which were record lows in many places in our region) and next year will be the same dryness again before a slow return to wetter years. thelongview.com.au/documents/NEW-CLIMATE-CYCLE-2010-TO-2028-Kevin-Long-v1.pdf
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Post by Stealth on Aug 1, 2020 15:01:24 GMT 10
Fascinating read. I don't know a huge deal about long-term patterns but I do know that year on year our winters have gotten dryer and dryer in my area in the last decade. You used to be able to set your watch by the mid-morning rains. Now? It's only rained a couple of times in the last month. Scary stuff, given that we're in the middle of winter and normally everything is so wet that you squelch no matter whether you're on dirt or bitumen!
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bug
Senior Member
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Post by bug on Aug 1, 2020 15:31:28 GMT 10
It's been a very warm winter here. Just past the halfway mark and it's 17c outside.
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kelabar
Senior Member
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Post by kelabar on Aug 1, 2020 17:05:26 GMT 10
Hell, it actually rained here this year. I thought I had dropped a small scrap of green paper on the ground but it was a weed seedling! Not used to seeing them after two completely dry years. Drying out again now though.
Anything would be better than the meteorology forecasts. One week out 80% chance of 2 inches of rain which always drops down to 5% chance of >1mm by the time that day comes around. It would be funny if it wasn't so pathetic. Maybe the forecasts are adjusted to remove discrimination or something. Very PC but useless.
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Post by SA Hunter on Aug 2, 2020 16:30:27 GMT 10
Went bush Friday - coldest night I can remember - 1 pace back from the campfire, and freezing cold. Then yesterday - 19c and sunny. Still moisture in the soil though. Supposed to rain next weekend.
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Tim Horton
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Post by Tim Horton on Sept 22, 2021 5:06:38 GMT 10
I read a one sentence forecast for North America... This winter is to be a "LaNina" (cold) winter.. Much of this predicted on weather activity off the Pacific west coast some how..
We pretty much expect and prepare for the worst of winter and enjoy anything less than that as it progresses..
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