norseman
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Post by norseman on May 4, 2020 23:30:14 GMT 10
ME Bank (members equity) has stopped withdrawals from home loan accounts if you've paid extra in advance you can no longer redraw it as the start of a bail-in so keep an eye on the other banks doing similar things very soon. Yes and they did it with zero notification forwarded to their customers!
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Post by perthprepper on May 5, 2020 13:30:11 GMT 10
I read this but feel like there's a real bias in how he's interpreted Buffett's comments. A lot of things that seemed pretty neutral got spun as very pessimistic. Goes with the view of the zerohedge blog I guess. Global stocks are deep in red so far on Monday. All the mainstream media are running similar articles as European stocks down big, and US futures fall. www.cnbc.com/2020/05/03/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.htmlThe Dow and NASDAQ were both slightly up and the ftse slightly down, by end of trade. Buffett is known for avoiding short term forecasting. Personal view is that zero hedge has really gone in looking to use some fairly dull comments from him to support their existing bias on this one.
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Post by perthprepper on May 5, 2020 13:31:35 GMT 10
ME Bank (members equity) has stopped withdrawals from home loan accounts if you've paid extra in advance you can no longer redraw it as the start of a bail-in so keep an eye on the other banks doing similar things very soon. Yes and they did it with zero notification forwarded to their customers! This is incredible, I'm not with them but was going to park some spare cash on my mortgage, now I think I'll just keep it in my ordinary account! Some customers are going to be rightly furious about this
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Post by spinifex on May 5, 2020 16:52:53 GMT 10
The ASX has seen the greatest rise in 30 years. What crash? gov intervention - dropping interest rates and pumping money into the system, but this time no matter how much money they juice the system with it will end badly with hyperinflation.
For example the 4 depressions they dropped interests rates on average by 3% to stimulate the economy. Interests rates were already close to zero and dropping prior to the virus - no there is nowhere to go. The same with global auto sales been dropping for number of years despite low interests rates and lots of stimulus, longer payback terms etc... Now to stimulate auto sales - there is nowhere to go. Same with oil price, very little room as storage fill up and the demand dries up. Theres often mis-understanding around the outcomes created by depression and hyperinflation.
Hyperinflation punishes savers and creditors and rewards debtors. (A weeks worth of wages today becomes a days wage in a weeks time - fixed debt is very easy to pay off) Those who are believers in imminent hyperinflation need to spend all their savings immediately and take on real assets and debt. (Remember that Banks are the biggest creditors. They have lots of political influence. Bet against them at your peril.)
Depressions are the opposite ... they reward savers and punish debtors. (A days wage today becomes a weeks wage tomorrow) Those who are believers in imminent depression should sell everything they have and hold cash to purchase new stuff at a fraction of the cost in the future. Depressions can really hurt creditors too when the assets subject to loans can't be sold to recover the principal.
Those who somehow believe we can have both these opposites at once best seek medical advice. Its one or the other. There is no inflation when depression strikes. There is no depression when inflation is rampant. They are polar opposites.
Then theres stagflation ... which is where we're at. A debt fueled, uneven, inflation during stagnant wage growth. It is the situation in which creditors (banks) suffer minimal harm while the general population takes relentless mild punishment. Its the most foolish economic situation to be in. Better to slowly see-saw from inflationary to deflationary cycles. Slowly being the key thing. Let 'the market' do its natural thing and weed out the inefficient and un-adaptable.
The Covid economic shutdowns are hugely deflationary - wages for large swathes of the population vanished. If it weren't for social safety net these folks would be doing ANYTHING at ANY price right now just to get their next meal. Those that still have jobs would need to work for much less or be replaced by the newly formed mass of desperados who will work real cheaply. The ONLY reason the government stepped in and started handing out free money is to protect the banks from taking huge losses as people with no wages can't pay up on their debts.
I am betting my future that Banks and government win the day and we remain in stagflation for many years to come.
My wish is for a depression accompanied by creative destruction of the inefficient, onerous, cartel-corporations that allows new smaller companies with better ethics, products and services to fill the gaps. (It'll never happen!)
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bug
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Post by bug on May 7, 2020 7:47:51 GMT 10
Yes and they did it with zero notification forwarded to their customers! This is incredible, I'm not with them but was going to park some spare cash on my mortgage, now I think I'll just keep it in my ordinary account! Some customers are going to be rightly furious about this Always far better to keep your money in an offset account than to put it on the mortgage itself. Same result but without the restrictions.
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frostbite
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Post by frostbite on Nov 7, 2021 18:42:36 GMT 10
Well who would have thought, 18 months later and still no crash.
Housing properties still going through the roof. Whilst many preppers and youtube experts were screaming the housing bubble was about to burst, I was buying rural land. Guess who's laughing his butt off now.
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tactile
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Post by tactile on Nov 8, 2021 8:38:52 GMT 10
You know you're going to get crucified here when it does tank don't you?
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frostbite
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Post by frostbite on Nov 8, 2021 11:30:03 GMT 10
Not going to happen. My daughter and I are so convinced values will continue rising that we're looking to buy a place for her 3 year old son, before they become totally unaffordable. A year ago I thought my primary residence was worth about $700-750k. Last week a place 500m up the road sold for $1.18mil, and we're in one of the cheapest suburbs. I can't see them dropping in price in my lifetime.
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tactile
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Post by tactile on Nov 8, 2021 11:47:15 GMT 10
So you think real estate is going up for ever? There's no bubble?
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frostbite
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Post by frostbite on Nov 8, 2021 12:12:38 GMT 10
Yes. It may stagnate, perhaps a very minor correction, but no crash.
A crash would be nice. I own all my properties outright. If the market crashed I would just buy more.
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Post by Stealth on Nov 9, 2021 19:24:14 GMT 10
I don't know what I think on the subject anymore. With no real wage growth, we can't call this anything BUT an unsustainable bubble. But it just keeps going up and up and up. People are buying off the plan near us and having their contracts sunset clause cancelled so the developers can re-list the property for $100k more 2 weeks later. It's disgusting and it's unsustainable.
No matter how offensive they are as a concepts, industry can't survive without cities and yet the people who live in them can't afford to buy there anymore. If everyone that lives in a city and works in an essential service (and I'm talking shipping, logistics etc) suddenly moves into the sticks where they can actually afford to buy the country stops. We live and die by the truck and cargo ship routes that keep us serviced and none of those routes terminate at night at the local pub of every rural town.
I would have been absolutely CONVINCED this time last year that the market would have crashed by now, but it just hasn't. It's pure insanity. I know a heap of people my age who've given up on ever owning. Not because they couldn't afford it on their wages necessarily, but because they (like me) flat out refuse to line someone else's pockets with 1.2 mil for a house that's physically worth $400k. We're planning to buy a place in a coastal town over west now. We're going to lease it until we can relocate jobs to get over there. We're closer now to that goal that we ever have been before so it might happen sometime in the next couple of years if we're lucky.
But damn does it suck that home ownership relies largely on luck at this stage in the game.
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grumble
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Post by grumble on Nov 10, 2021 10:41:17 GMT 10
One day some domino will fall and start the chain reaction of another GFC that will flow downstream to make the situation worse than before but until then prices on property and everything else will keep going up to the point that people will simply starve and end up homeless. Some friends down south happily bragged to me how they just sold their house that they owned outright for a huge profit and were so proud of themselves but now they are crying because they had to go into several 100k debt to buy another house because the market is running so hot even with the "huge profit "it simply wasn't enough and now they are stressing that interest rates will go up and ironically now live in a high crime area so they have to pay higher insurance fees
My simple thoughts are whatever will happen will happen i just make sue i diversify enough that i'm covered the best i can be
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blueshoes
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Post by blueshoes on Nov 12, 2021 13:14:03 GMT 10
I don't know what I think on the subject anymore. With no real wage growth, we can't call this anything BUT an unsustainable bubble. Unsustainable for whom? Don't underestimate the capacity of the 1% to keep buying up all the land. There's only so much land, but the 1% is growing along with world population...
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frostbite
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Post by frostbite on Nov 14, 2021 8:24:00 GMT 10
My belief that the housing market will continue to grow saw my daughter and I inspecting some units in Canberra yesterday. We put an offer in and had it accepted on a nice place, walking distance to a supermarket and the tram line. Complex has secure underground parking, a pool and bbq area.
This unit is for my 3yr old grandson, bought considering where and what a young man would want in 20 years time, when housing will most likely be unaffordable for most. And in the meantime the tenant will pay it off for him.
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Post by Stealth on Nov 14, 2021 9:40:45 GMT 10
My belief that the housing market will continue to grow saw my daughter and I inspecting some units in Canberra yesterday. We put an offer in and had it accepted on a nice place, walking distance to a supermarket and the tram line. Complex has secure underground parking, a pool and bbq area. This unit is for my 3yr old grandson, bought considering where and what a young man would want in 20 years time, when housing will most likely be unaffordable for most. And in the meantime the tenant will pay it off for him. Hope she doesn't get 'sunset claused' and have it pulled out from underneath her in a month when the developer decides they can sell it for more. Apparently that's becoming more and more common in the ACT. Other half has a friend who's just had that happen to him and didn't even seem surprised. Disappointed, but not surprised.
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frostbite
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Post by frostbite on Nov 14, 2021 10:17:03 GMT 10
The unit is privately owned and tenanted at the moment. It's not new construction. Can still get gazumped though, until contracts are exchanged. All land in ACT is leasehold, this unit's lease goes until next century.
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malewithatail
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Post by malewithatail on Nov 14, 2021 10:23:12 GMT 10
So, with lease hold you only "own" it for 99 years. I suppose even with freehold land, the Govt of the day can resume it as well.
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frostbite
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Post by frostbite on Nov 14, 2021 10:31:11 GMT 10
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malewithatail
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Post by malewithatail on Nov 14, 2021 11:14:32 GMT 10
Thats a good point, most leases havnt expired yet, so the lease renewals havnt had time to be challenged as well.
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Post by Stealth on Nov 14, 2021 19:59:06 GMT 10
I think an apartment block will probably be safe when it comes to the 'crown land' lease concern. Most any property like that is well away from any potential area to be reclaimed by the land owner simply because it's in the middle of built up areas. The places where you'd have to actually be concerned about that are the places that are land rich like the outskirts of town. Expansion means that they could reclaim the land for business regions etc.
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