spatial
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Post by spatial on Mar 9, 2020 14:49:25 GMT 10
One of my indicators of impending SHTF is a trading halt in US stocks. When stocks fall too fast a temporary trading halt is imposed for a few hours to prevent panic decision.
Currently Aus stocks are down more than 6% today. US stocks premarket are showing major weakness, down more than 1000 points. Oil down 30% to $28, Not looking good, this has high probability of ending very badly.
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bug
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Post by bug on Mar 9, 2020 14:51:34 GMT 10
Waiting for the bottom to buy up. My grandfather made an absolute killing in '86 doing this. The death rate is far too low for this to be a SHTF moment, other than from people's panic.
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Post by milspec on Mar 9, 2020 15:47:29 GMT 10
Waiting for the bottom to buy up. My grandfather made an absolute killing in '86 doing this. The death rate is far too low for this to be a SHTF moment, other than from people's panic. Never underestimate panic. This time it'll even bite the arse of the upper echelon grey haired old men who are used to getting things their own way and feeling like they are above the fray of the minions. |
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Mar 9, 2020 16:58:14 GMT 10
The economy was already crashing prior to the virus, it is just the pin that pricked the bubbles.
For the last 10years central banks have dropped interest rates and done bond buying, that has without fail pushed market up up up.
The same tricks don't seem to be working. US 10Y treasury bond yield is now 0.48% way lowest in history. Probability of big smash is very high.
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Mar 9, 2020 17:00:00 GMT 10
Waiting for the bottom to buy up. My grandfather made an absolute killing in '86 doing this. The death rate is far too low for this to be a SHTF moment, other than from people's panic. Italian death rate is +5% huge impact on economy. Western countries have way higher aging population _ so could hit harder. |
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bce1
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Post by bce1 on Mar 9, 2020 17:52:59 GMT 10
I’m over in the west island until Thursday, so if we could delay SHTF until I get back to my Doomstead then that would be grand!!
I wouldn’t bet the house on this being a final trigger, but as we keep coming back to.... nine meals from anarchy. If you ever doubted it last week and toilet paper fights should have you convinced! It will be accumulated threats/events and a pandemic with a 3% death rate and hospitals collapsing under the need for ICU care might be the straw that breaks the camels back!!
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Post by spinifex on Mar 9, 2020 17:54:11 GMT 10
Waiting for the bottom to buy up. My grandfather made an absolute killing in '86 doing this. The death rate is far too low for this to be a SHTF moment, other than from people's panic. Try this: www.asx.com.au/asx/share-price-research/company/FPHJoin the ride. |
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bce1
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Post by bce1 on Mar 9, 2020 17:54:48 GMT 10
Reassuringly (or not) the median Italian death rate is 82.
Plenty of younger people but important to realise this is mostly killing the old.
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Mar 9, 2020 18:28:13 GMT 10
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bug
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Post by bug on Mar 9, 2020 19:09:56 GMT 10
Waiting for the bottom to buy up. My grandfather made an absolute killing in '86 doing this. The death rate is far too low for this to be a SHTF moment, other than from people's panic. Try this: www.asx.com.au/asx/share-price-research/company/FPHJoin the ride. Stockmarkets make the toilet paper people look rational. Exploit them, don't follow them. |
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Post by spinifex on Mar 10, 2020 7:31:03 GMT 10
Working the share market is like hunting.
The careful scanning of the market, the identification of a specific target, stalking (ie researching) in to get a good close look at it and then pulling the trigger.
Of course ... occasionally one doesn't hit the target correctly and the damn thing turns on you and chases you up a tree ... but hey ... it's a bit of a thrill when that happens too!
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Mar 10, 2020 9:08:24 GMT 10
Working the share market is like hunting. The careful scanning of the market, the identification of a specific target, stalking (ie researching) in to get a good close look at it and then pulling the trigger. Of course ... occasionally one doesn't hit the target correctly and the damn thing turns on you and chases you up a tree ... but hey ... it's a bit of a thrill when that happens too! With the current stock market the More correct expression to use is, 'don't catch a falling knife" US Stocks did indeed hit a trading halt, then fell well below 7%, huge fall all assets. Australia stocks opened down 2%. High probability of massive economic smash. |
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Post by spinifex on Mar 10, 2020 18:27:55 GMT 10
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frostbite
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Post by frostbite on Mar 10, 2020 18:51:10 GMT 10
Amateur. I've got 200 rolls of TP that I bought for 50 cents each, currently for sale at 2000% markup. Anyone want a nice 3 ply roll for $10 each before they're all gone? |
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Post by spinifex on Mar 11, 2020 8:15:52 GMT 10
Amateur. I've got 200 rolls of TP that I bought for 50 cents each, currently for sale at 2000% markup. Anyone want a nice 3 ply roll for $10 each before they're all gone? How many have you sold so far at that price? TP is back in the shops here for less than $1 a roll so you better sell quick. |
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frostbite
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Post by frostbite on Mar 11, 2020 9:42:17 GMT 10
All shops here still empty. Refill overnight, so I imagine you have to queue up before they open each morning.
Not sold any yet, but doing lots of marketing at work.
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Post by spinifex on Mar 11, 2020 17:36:08 GMT 10
Interesting that different parts of the country now have different levels of TP buy-o-mania.
You could start bootleg TP trade 'prohibition style'.
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frostbite
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Post by frostbite on Mar 11, 2020 17:43:50 GMT 10
Interesting that different parts of the country now have different levels of TP buy-o-mania. You could start bootleg TP trade 'prohibition style'. Do I get to carry a tommy gun? |
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ygidorp
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Post by ygidorp on Mar 11, 2020 21:25:42 GMT 10
I'm thinking of using dollar averaging, and spreading share investments over the next few months. I don't feel smart enough to catch the bottom of the market, so hopefully that will average it out.
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ygidorp
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Post by ygidorp on Mar 11, 2020 21:26:06 GMT 10
Interesting that different parts of the country now have different levels of TP buy-o-mania. You could start bootleg TP trade 'prohibition style'. Do I get to carry a tommy gun? According to social media, all you need is a trenchcoat and a nervous facial tic! |
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