bug
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Post by bug on Apr 3, 2020 17:10:43 GMT 10
Drugs always get through. The issue may be a price rise which will result in more violent thefts.
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pugs
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Post by pugs on Apr 3, 2020 17:51:42 GMT 10
Keeping the stocks also and swapping new for old and cooking up spag bol for my old man (78) and putting them into takeaway containers for him to nuke from the freezer as he needs while we refresh and top up our stores of canned veg and various beans
The coles nearby seems to have also settled down and the wife and I are doing another run up to Shepparton in the morning for a stock up , dropped in and saw the Iva near work where the asian chick running it doesn’t give a shit how much you buy .
still Suss on how long the restrictions will go on but for now we’re flat out at work including weekends , but the wife is fully on board now and happy to drop a bit extra cash on extra stores so making hay while the sun shines with her on my team now
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norseman
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Post by norseman on Apr 10, 2020 7:22:52 GMT 10
Two weeks to see if this shit is real! If it is then- Six Weeks to a serious collapse! Six Months to Mad Max 5! Based on my original prediction I thinks it's a dud folks! Two weeks is nearly up and we are not even close to TEOTWAWKI !! So now I've got 800 plus mtrs of Nato Spec Razor Wire going real cheap! As a sweetener I'll also throw in 1.4k's worth of toilet rolls now loosely piled in a very large cardboard box. Anyone interested? |
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bce1
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Post by bce1 on Apr 10, 2020 8:08:42 GMT 10
It isn’t TEOTWAWKI - but I think in 6 months the world will be a different place... may be wrong, but there will be a new normal.
Think .au and .nz look like will pull through this essentially intact but with more sovereign debt and unemployment but have friends in the UK and US and it sounds like it is hell still and while things will recover, it won’t be without impact.
Still think America could spontaneously combust.
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norseman
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Post by norseman on Apr 10, 2020 8:26:06 GMT 10
It isn’t TEOTWAWKI - but I think in 6 months the world will be a different place... may be wrong, but there will be a new normal. Think .au and .nz look like will pull through this essentially intact but with more sovereign debt and unemployment but have friends in the UK and US and it sounds like it is hell still and while things will recover, it won’t be without impact. Still think America could spontaneously combust. Agree with you on the US and would hate being trapped in the UK right now. The economic fallout from all this is going to be absolutely horrendous. Time for Oz and NZ to laager the wagons and get ready for the financial pandemic!! |
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Post by spinifex on Apr 10, 2020 8:30:33 GMT 10
I heard quoted on MSM that the IMF used the word 'depression' in a statement yesterday. Thats pretty heavy coming from them if its a true quote.
Given a history of the IMF, and indeed every financial power everywhere, furiously trying to avoid using even the word 'recession' so as not to 'spook the markets' ... it makes one wonder.
Its like someone, somewhere up high, wants to panic financial markets and increase the chaos.
The big drop in oil price is likely going to smash US shale production as a bare minimum. With less economically recoverable oil in the economic system the system has to shrink.
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Apr 10, 2020 9:02:57 GMT 10
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captain
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Post by captain on Apr 10, 2020 18:43:33 GMT 10
I also think Indonesia is a case to watch and if my theories are correct,then Australia will have some serious issues in 6 months time. I am thinking of potentiall civil unrest there due to lack of facilities, more pressure on the already corrupt government and a rise in social unrest. All this potentially leading to a mass exodus of refugees ( some infected and some not) too our northern borders.
will our border force cope with 2 million refugees in quick succession? Combine this with potentially failed states in png, Timor etc for the same reasons.
What will this do to northern Australia? These are things to watch for in 6 months.
my theories anyway.
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paranoia
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Post by paranoia on Apr 10, 2020 21:59:52 GMT 10
I'll preface this by saying this isn't the TEOTWAWKI that many have in their imagination but in a way I dont feel things will go back to exactly as they were.
I have spoken to many business owners who have already shut down and many that will if things do not change in the coming months. The offset jobs provided by the supermarket giants will not last for many months beyond the panic buying.
Retail - an industry largely still existing due to people habits but one that was already reducing staff before this hit will be changed for good. Many that would never considered shopping online before have now been forced into trying online which was the biggest barrier for recalcitrant consumers.
I also don't believe that keeping the economy on life support through 'employment welfare' will mean this doesn't hurt us long term.
As far as social distancing protocols go, things will be lifted in the coming weeks and months - we do need to let the virus travel through more of the community. If you look at the government models they do go out to 12 months.
One thing many aren't talking about is while we might have a win many countries international are not doing as well. our tourism industry would not last through another season of restrictions and if things aren't handled by the end of the year the effects will be great.
I also feel the global recession that will be the aftershock of this event will have an effect on resource demand and thus our exports. Australia is always affected by international economic pressures and this is world wide.
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fei
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Post by fei on Apr 10, 2020 23:19:17 GMT 10
The UN is now also warning there may be food shortages in the second half of the year if export bans some countries have implemented are kept in place for much longer.
Just think what the implications will be in places like the middle east after being in lockdown for months, high-level leaders dying off (Iran, Saudi) and then no wheat imports. Not to mention the global economy also going kaput.
Thinks do look rocky for the next few years.
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Tim Horton
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Post by Tim Horton on Apr 11, 2020 4:28:02 GMT 10
CBC saying the rise in unemployment is now double what was expected.. No idea what it is likely to top at.. No blame, no excuse just that fact..
If this report had been about the US, there would have been a full day of Trump bashing on the air over this..
There are a lot of side issues that have not reached the peak of there curve yet.. Yes, it will take 6 months for many issues to peak and recede. It will take a year or several years for some issues to resolve..
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Post by SA Hunter on Apr 11, 2020 13:43:32 GMT 10
Listened to a virologoist on the ABC radio yesterday - he bought up some interesting points - hope I can get it right;
* the high deaths/infection rates are mostly northern hemisphere - it's now getting warmer, so he expects the infection rate to drop. In the southern hemisphere it is starting to cool, so he expects the infection rate to rise dramatically. He believed that temperature had a lot to do with the virility of the virus.
* herd mentality - Sweden has implemented this, and for a while it looked like it was working - till now when the infection and death rate amongst older Swedes is ballooning.
* doesn't believe the numbers out of China ( I know, I was shocked too ) - doesn't believe they are out of the woods, and believes with their drop in social restrictions, it could explode there again.
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bug
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Post by bug on Apr 11, 2020 14:21:41 GMT 10
Nobody believes the CCP except those who aren't allowed not to.
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fei
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Post by fei on Apr 11, 2020 16:12:49 GMT 10
Nobody believes the CCP except those who aren't allowed not to. The only people in China who believe the CCP are the old farts (like my FIL) who believe everything the government says. Extremely odd really, as they are the ones who have gone through the decades of famines and strife, but still think the powers that be can do no wrong. There are plenty of young dumb arses who believe the idea the virus came from overseas though. These are the fexkers who are causing all the expats trouble now, cos we apparently brought the virus into China and are poisoning them. |
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norseman
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Post by norseman on Apr 12, 2020 6:02:06 GMT 10
Nobody believes the CCP except those who aren't allowed not to. The only people in China who believe the CCP are the old farts (like my FIL) who believe everything the government says. Extremely odd really, as they are the ones who have gone through the decades of famines and strife, but still think the powers that be can do no wrong. There are plenty of young dumb arses who believe the idea the virus came from overseas though. These are the fexkers who are causing all the expats trouble now, cos we apparently brought the virus into China and are poisoning them. Cultural Revolution MKII maybe?? |
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Post by spinifex on Apr 12, 2020 9:02:31 GMT 10
Nobody believes the CCP except those who aren't allowed not to. The only people in China who believe the CCP are the old farts (like my FIL) who believe everything the government says. Extremely odd really, as they are the ones who have gone through the decades of famines and strife, but still think the powers that be can do no wrong. I suspect the old farts survived the strife precisely because they practiced the art of either keeping their mouths shut or vocally supporting The Powers. From what I've read and heard about, those that did not practice those arts, even behind closed doors with their own families, stood a high probability of being 're-educated' by 20 years of hard labour and/or ending up in a burial pit. I reckon those old 'true believers' could be practicing a survival strategy that worked once before. |
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fei
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Post by fei on Apr 12, 2020 11:30:44 GMT 10
The only people in China who believe the CCP are the old farts (like my FIL) who believe everything the government says. Extremely odd really, as they are the ones who have gone through the decades of famines and strife, but still think the powers that be can do no wrong. I suspect the old farts survived the strife precisely because they practiced the art of either keeping their mouths shut or vocally supporting The Powers. From what I've read and heard about, those that did not practice those arts, even behind closed doors with their own families, stood a high probability of being 're-educated' by 20 years of hard labour and/or ending up in a burial pit. I reckon those old 'true believers' could be practicing a survival strategy that worked once before. Pretty much so, my in-laws won't talk about anything from the past and strictly avoid anything "political". Having said that, my MIL, who really doesn't have much clue about what goes on outside her own family/friends group, can see that the economic situation is crap and the government aren't helping much. FIL on the other hand watches a lot of news (ie. propaganda) shows, but firmly believes everything in them. |
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Jul 7, 2024 11:02:41 GMT 10
Jul 7, 2024 11:02:41 GMT 10
