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Post by Stealth on Jul 26, 2020 11:01:00 GMT 10
I've been watching with interest in the last few days with interest. I'll admit that I'm the last person to interpret the details correctly. I bought more in March and unfortunately it was right before the massive dip. I'm not kicking myself, the price has only gone up from my purchase price. Silver is in a similar boat.
So predictions! What's going to happen in the next few months? What's your "If/then"s for the market? I'm curious to see input from folks that have been tracking this sort of thing for longer than I have. Do you expect to see the price shoot up? Do you think it'll settle back down if a vaccine is developed and we're able to open up business as usual sooner rather than later?
Or do you think that this is the beginning of the end for the dollar and we're all going to lose our bank balances overnight?
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Jul 26, 2020 15:49:48 GMT 10
Yip, I have been long forecasting that soon we will experience a banking holiday where all bank accounts across the world are frozen. Governments have been purchasing bonds pushing stock prices up, the last thing left was 'helicopter money' we have seen that now with free money handed out in most western countries, debt has gone mad. Everything is no place now for the big crash unemployment in the US over 50 million Americans have now claimed unemployment, civil unrest is breaking out all over - see my recent post ausprep.com/thread/6111/shtf-indications-warnings-civil-unrest?page=4Gold shot up $100. this last week - people have realized stock are overpriced and money is soon to loose all value. I will be very surprised if things make it past Nov 2020... |
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Jul 27, 2020 17:27:53 GMT 10
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Post by Stealth on Jul 27, 2020 21:28:53 GMT 10
It's definitely been a combination of interesting and exciting to watch it shoot up. But I also have a fair bit of consternation about it as well. I sat through the whole hour or so of the World Economic Forum's "Great Reset" plan tonight. No conspiracy theories. No nutjob, out there Chicken Little stuff. It was straight up their plan for how to 'fix' the planet, global economy, and social order in general. It consists of "digital currency, and the public putting their trust in gov. and corporations to fund a better world". Well, at least their wishlist for it. No defined plans as of yet. www.weforum.org/great-reset - If you have the patience to sit through the whole thing, each and every speaker has very interesting points about what they see as important to the future economy. I'm anti-conspiracy. I look for facts based evidence. That video absolutely has me thinking that investing in physical commodities that can be held in one's own hand is becoming vitally important. They said themselves that the virus has accelerated their plans for this 'great reset'. It's not "THEY want to destroy the economy and bring everything to it's knees". The speakers are recorded with all information and context available to the viewers to draw our own conclusions, with all the context and clarified by the speakers themselves. It's not heresay or cherry-picking specific comments that have been made among more moderate comments. It's not some random wacko making a story out of whole cloth. It's their own literal words, put out online for anyone and everyone to see. It's easy to say that HRH could be misinterpreted and that he's entirely altruistic, but it's hard to make that claim for the IMF and CEO of Mastercard's comments. I am 100% behind the speakers who's primary concern was environmental issues like Prince Charles, for example. But the rest of it? My hair was practically standing on end at the implications of some of the comments (particularly from the IMF). Stack'em while you can, in my opinion! |
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norseman
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Post by norseman on Jul 28, 2020 7:59:34 GMT 10
It's definitely been a combination of interesting and exciting to watch it shoot up. But I also have a fair bit of consternation about it as well. I sat through the whole hour or so of the World Economic Forum's "Great Reset" plan tonight. No conspiracy theories. No nutjob, out there Chicken Little stuff. It was straight up their plan for how to 'fix' the planet, global economy, and social order in general. It consists of "digital currency, and the public putting their trust in gov. and corporations to fund a better world". Well, at least their wishlist for it. No defined plans as of yet. www.weforum.org/great-reset - If you have the patience to sit through the whole thing, each and every speaker has very interesting points about what they see as important to the future economy. I'm anti-conspiracy. I look for facts based evidence. That video absolutely has me thinking that investing in physical commodities that can be held in one's own hand is becoming vitally important. They said themselves that the virus has accelerated their plans for this 'great reset'. It's not "THEY want to destroy the economy and bring everything to it's knees". The speakers are recorded with all information and context available to the viewers to draw our own conclusions, with all the context and clarified by the speakers themselves. It's not heresay or cherry-picking specific comments that have been made among more moderate comments. It's not some random wacko making a story out of whole cloth. It's their own literal words, put out online for anyone and everyone to see. It's easy to say that HRH could be misinterpreted and that he's entirely altruistic, but it's hard to make that claim for the IMF and CEO of Mastercard's comments. I am 100% behind the speakers who's primary concern was environmental issues like Prince Charles, for example. But the rest of it? My hair was practically standing on end at the implications of some of the comments (particularly from the IMF). Stack'em while you can, in my opinion! Conspiracies aside these people are idiots of the highest order they have no idea how to fix this shitfight! It's a stage show for the masses, bottom line is it's time for the Global meltdown and rebuild! A true reset is in order and as horrific and cruel as that sounds, it's quite simply the nature of all things. Balance must be restored, out of the post apocalyptic ashes something "better" needs to rise! For the sake of my grandchildren and theirs and theirs and theirs I hope they survive to build a "better" world, free of evil and corruption! |
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bug
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Post by bug on Jul 28, 2020 9:57:48 GMT 10
I'm really not seeing this turning into any kind of collapse. From a very brutal 'economic only' perspective, CV really doesn't do much when compared to historical diseases. The 1% fatality rate is largely confined to the elderly and those already sick. Yeah it's horrible, but this is not something that would really harm the economy. The control measures are far more damaging to the economy than the virus itself.
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Jul 28, 2020 12:41:10 GMT 10
I'm really not seeing this turning into any kind of collapse. From a very brutal 'economic only' perspective, CV really doesn't do much when compared to historical diseases. The 1% fatality rate is largely confined to the elderly and those already sick. Yeah it's horrible, but this is not something that would really harm the economy. The control measures are far more damaging to the economy than the virus itself. The global and Australian economy was in a big mess prior to NCov19, interest rates were lowered across the globe, Gov handing out tax cut stimulus esp in the US, China giving banks more money and taking over some failed banks. Job stimulus packages etc... etc.. Then the virus hit with overreaction and lock down. Many companies on brink of failure collapsed like Virgin Air Australia. USA has had over 52 million people apply for job loss payments, in fact last week over 1.41Mill Americans lost there job up from 1.3million the week before so thing are not getting better. Pevious all time recored for job loss in the US was in the 1980 where 650,000 lost employment. It has now been over 13 weeks were unemployment calms have been-over 1.3 million a week. In Australia the employment agencies are saying those that have lost their jobs only have 1:200 chance of finding employment, center-link no longer requesting evidence of job applications. There is shortage of goods all over Australia - I cant even get a mobile phone cover as out of stock and no idea when back in stock. One woman at the phone shop said they tried get get a hunting bow - cant find one in Australia, the other shop attendant said they tried buying a motor bike but none in stock in NSW - spares are running out as well. Cant print food, or goods, sloshing money around it not going to help the situation. Gold price is now over $974 USD that is $50 over all time record in one day. Economists across the world are panicking. |
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bug
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Post by bug on Jul 28, 2020 13:20:34 GMT 10
That's an economic downturn (expected). It's a long way from collapse. 10-15% unemployment is pretty stock standard for a recession, lower than most of Europe in the GFC.
Most of that international travel was tourists and other non-essential travel. Anyone in tourism always suffers in a recession.
I'm not surprised at all by the US figures. They've transitioned a manufacturing work force over into the service sector due to higher costs than in China for manufacturing. It will come back when CV dies down.
If this thing had a kill rate of say 10% or higher, yeah it's bug out time. But at 1% it's not going to collapse society.
We've had things so good for so long that people forget what the normal economic downturns are.
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fei
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Post by fei on Jul 28, 2020 15:20:04 GMT 10
Have been hearing much in the Chinese official news that China's economy is better than it was before COVID. Not really saying much, as things have been slowing down for at least the past two years.
Was at two local malls on the weekend. Both had a lot of people, but didn't see many shopping bags in evidence. Only places that seem to have people actually buying things were the supermarkets and a few big shops selling cheap unbranded or own brand products.
Supply chains have been back to normal for everyday goods for a few months, however I did notice my favourite big box sports store has empty shelves, while it seems that certain lines have been removed altogether (basically all the "good stuff" like archery gear and camping stuff that would be handy in an emergency).
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Post by Stealth on Jul 28, 2020 17:36:47 GMT 10
That's an economic downturn (expected). It's a long way from collapse. 10-15% unemployment is pretty stock standard for a recession, lower than most of Europe in the GFC. Most of that international travel was tourists and other non-essential travel. Anyone in tourism always suffers in a recession. I'm not surprised at all by the US figures. They've transitioned a manufacturing work force over into the service sector due to higher costs than in China for manufacturing. It will come back when CV dies down. If this thing had a kill rate of say 10% or higher, yeah it's bug out time. But at 1% it's not going to collapse society. We've had things so good for so long that people forget what the normal economic downturns are. Oh I agree, I'm not expecting to see a world-ending scenario out of the global downturn itself. But I think that this planned change to a digital economy has been something I've firmly put into the 'probably mostly panic-merchant behaviour' even for a few years now. I've seen comments from people that have been stacking for the inevitable end of currency from back in the 70s. Now that's not saying that I thought they were wrong, just that I hadn't myself seen enough trust-worthy sources that indicated that it was true. It could go either way for a long time. After watching that video I've changed my tune on the topic though. Even my other piped up and said perhaps we should get in on that when I mentioned it. |
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Jul 29, 2020 23:20:19 GMT 10
It has little to do with covid19, the global economy is fragile and failing. Interest rates at record low, debts at record high, p/e stock ratio at record high, above the 1929 crash levels. Governments handing out free money to save economies. There is no more ammunitions left to support the economy. 40% of renters in the US about to be evicted, China flooded, new waves of the virus breaking out. www.zerohedge.com/markets/imminent-eviction-waves-could-be-seen-these-states |
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Post by spinifex on Jul 30, 2020 8:06:18 GMT 10
If you were a landlord, with a good tennant who cant pay ... why would you evict them? If the 40% claim were to be true ... where is your replacement tennant who can pay coming from? Would you not rather have someone in the property keeping it in some kind of order or prefer a bunch of squatters to move in and wreck the place?
Even during the sub-prime real-estate meltdown, banks were letting their defaulting clients stay in their homes to avoid them falling prey to full blown squatters.
Rental incomes falling by 40% I can believe in.
When customers cant pay the price for a product (such as a place to live), the price of the product has to drop in order to keep making sales (keep renters in the building). Otherwise there are no sales and products have to be written off (empty rentals); and when that happens the creditors (banks) make massive losses as there is no income to service loans. Nobody anywhere in that chain wants it to fail. So they all have to agree to share some loss but keep the system going - ie. rent prices drop and real estate prices devalue. Normally the Banks would loose quite a bit ... but in the wonderous modern capitalist system we operate, where socialism is growled at and frowned upon, Governments will take money from the taxes of nurses and motor mechanics and give it to the banks as a bail out.
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fei
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Post by fei on Jul 30, 2020 10:59:51 GMT 10
If you were a landlord, with a good tennant who cant pay ... why would you evict them? If the 40% claim were to be true ... where is your replacement tennant who can pay coming from? Would you not rather have someone in the property keeping it in some kind of order or prefer a bunch of squatters to move in and wreck the place? Even during the sub-prime real-estate meltdown, banks were letting their defaulting clients stay in their homes to avoid them falling prey to full blown squatters. Rental incomes falling by 40% I can believe in. My brother has had the same tenant for 4 years. The guy always paid rent on time the first 3 years, but the last year has missed several payments. Some were made up later, others not. He reckons they've cumulatively not paid about 3 month's worth rent over the past 14 months now. Instead of evicting them, he has got the tenant to pay for the repairs and garden upkeep (tenant is a builder, so gets stuff done at mate's rates via tradie contacts). Easier to let them stay there and look after the place and pay most weeks, than have the place empty but still have to pay for gardens etc while looking for tenants. |
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bug
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Post by bug on Jul 30, 2020 14:07:50 GMT 10
If you were a landlord, with a good tennant who cant pay ... why would you evict them? If the 40% claim were to be true ... where is your replacement tennant who can pay coming from? Would you not rather have someone in the property keeping it in some kind of order or prefer a bunch of squatters to move in and wreck the place? Even during the sub-prime real-estate meltdown, banks were letting their defaulting clients stay in their homes to avoid them falling prey to full blown squatters. Rental incomes falling by 40% I can believe in. My brother has had the same tenant for 4 years. The guy always paid rent on time the first 3 years, but the last year has missed several payments. Some were made up later, others not. He reckons they've cumulatively not paid about 3 month's worth rent over the past 14 months now. Instead of evicting them, he has got the tenant to pay for the repairs and garden upkeep (tenant is a builder, so gets stuff done at mate's rates via tradie contacts). Easier to let them stay there and look after the place and pay most weeks, than have the place empty but still have to pay for gardens etc while looking for tenants. Yep. An empty investment property is just waiting to be broken into/graffed/whatever. Keep your tenant. 40% to be evicted sounds like something off Today Tonight. Rubbish. |
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Jul 30, 2020 15:30:24 GMT 10
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Jul 30, 2020 19:40:54 GMT 10
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Post by spinifex on Jul 30, 2020 19:49:27 GMT 10
I think very few people understand the full significance of no longer operating an economy with a gold backed currency. In the $USD reserve currency system we have globally, currency literally costs 0 to generate. No one has to mine it, or put in any effort or risk at all at the central banks in order to generate it.
What's happening is every time the system has a massive value destruction event (and there are many!) which would otherwise decimate the creditors (banks), the US federal reserve hands them the lost value back. They give it a fancy name like quantative easing so as ordinary folks don't realise free money is being handed around to people with good connections. It's a bit different in countries outside the US (because global trade uses $usd), but even then, if the US fed reserve is your friend ... they can make your losses disappear like magic. Private losses, commercial losses and Government losses.
Can that type of financial system detonate from a 'market event? Probably not. But, maybe what can happen, is the social consequences of stopping real world value finding, especially price recessions, can make lots of people very distressed and prone to acting out. Which is kind of what it looks like these days.
At some point the huge pool of financially distressed folks are just going to go: "F#ck it. I'm not paying for anything anymore." in very large numbers. Right about then rent/mortgage is suddenly free. Power and water bills stop getting paid and people hack the grid for both. Vehicle rego, insurance and taxes will slump, as anyone who can, joins the mob and simply stops paying the bills but keeps taking the product.
I guess we'll see.
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tomatoes
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Post by tomatoes on Jul 31, 2020 11:31:12 GMT 10
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bug
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Post by bug on Jul 31, 2020 14:06:13 GMT 10
I've never understood the idea of buying gold on the stockmarket for a SHTF scenario. If the market collapses, the electronic certificate that you hold is worthless. Try buying food with it or even obtaining the cash that it is 'worth'. Unless you have the physical item in your posession, it is worthless.
Profitting off it for now is a different matter and little different from playing the stockmarket.
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norseman
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Post by norseman on Jul 31, 2020 15:38:09 GMT 10
I've never understood the idea of buying gold on the stockmarket for a SHTF scenario. If the market collapses, the electronic certificate that you hold is worthless. Try buying food with it or even obtaining the cash that it is 'worth'. Unless you have the physical item in your posession, it is worthless. Profitting off it for now is a different matter and little different from playing the stockmarket. Yep that's the bit I don't get either! |
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