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Post by SA Hunter on Aug 10, 2020 1:48:18 GMT 10
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Post by milspec on Aug 10, 2020 6:21:38 GMT 10
Given the military force disparity and the financial hurt around the world at the moment I imagine the US would respond with a substantial cyber attacks & intelligence assistance in support of Taiwan as well as less visible military forces. Since cyber attacks are difficult to attribute to a particular state, they would be excellent support options for countries wishing to support Taiwan without obvious military presence.
China would likely want to limit bad news regarding military losses and impacts of cyber attacks to its population, active information operations would likely undermine that effort and bring pressure to bear on Xi Jinping.
Since a Chinese attack on Taiwan hinges on a successful amphibious landing that amphibious assault is also quite vulnerable whilst at sea. The US navy, attack submarines in particular could inflict a lot of damage if the US were to be bold enough for that whilst Taiwan uses anti shipping missiles for above water attacks.
Sea mines would also be a good/cost effective defensive measure to attrit that amphibious force since there are only limited beach heads for the attack.
It will be a war which is different from those in recent history, thats for sure.
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bug
Senior Member
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Post by bug on Aug 10, 2020 9:21:57 GMT 10
The Republic of China would win. Not by defeating the CCP, but by repulsing the attack and publicly humiliating them. Could result in Xi being overthrown in a coup.
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Post by milspec on Aug 11, 2020 7:40:57 GMT 10
Here's a new development & a big new indicator. A senior US govt representative has visited Taiwan. Bear in mind that the US has been purposely very constrained about official engagement with Taiwan since it is still not a diplomatically recognised entity by the US. www.smh.com.au/world/asia/historic-meeting-makes-avenues-for-peaceful-reunification-evaporate-20200810-p55kav.htmlThis comes amidst a period of strained relations with China so it is a pretty loud indicator of the US showing support for Taiwan. I wonder if we'll resume free trade negotiations with Taiwan after we dropped them in 2018 following China threatening it would hurt Aus-China relations. |
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Post by spinifex on Aug 11, 2020 9:06:10 GMT 10
Will the US Government 'help' Taiwan in much the same way it helped Vietnam, Afstan, Iraq and various South American countries in the 80's? Reduce it to a state of rubble and civil war with roving death squads? Washingtons record for 'success' is not that inspiring.
I'd think the long suffering people of the USA have probably had enough of trying to project power on the opposite side of the globe. And their appetite for intervention in Syria certainly went soft when Putin stepped upto the plate and settled things down.
I really doubt the US has the resolve to militarily duke it out with China - they have too much to lose and not enough to gain. But they might support an insurgency against CCP on the Chinese Mainland. Operating out of Burma perhaps. But that then invites the prospect of giving CCP a reason to invade and occupy Burma so the whole thing ends up with an ass-backwards result.
It's all a pretty pickle hey. Damned if ya do. Damned if ya don't. But don't worry. The rich R-soles calling the shots on both sides will walk away just fine while those at the coal face bear the cost.
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bug
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Post by bug on Aug 11, 2020 10:40:44 GMT 10
The difference being that unlike those other countries, the Republic of China wants the help.
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Post by milspec on Aug 11, 2020 16:39:01 GMT 10
One thing Trump is not .. is a war monger. He's an economics minded guy so I assume he'll be looking at the economic reasoning behind action relating to Taiwan and the South China sea. Curbing Chinese influence might be considered in broader economic terms in Trumps mind.
Unfortunately I dont know enough about China to know if a Xi Jinping replacement would be more moderate. However someone new taking the reins might set a longer term schedule for Taiwan aka 2049.
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blueshoes
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Post by blueshoes on Aug 12, 2020 21:28:45 GMT 10
If a new leader was taking the reins from Xi Jinping - if Winnie the Pooh was ousted for not being ballsy enough - his replacement will probably feel a need to achieve something impressive if he wants to save face, prove he's a better leader and keep his job.
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Post by Joey on Aug 13, 2020 4:57:22 GMT 10
My prediction is that China won't make a move on Taiwan until the election time when the US gov is in caretaker mode with the demoncrap house speaker Nancy Pelosi (pro China supporter) is the defacto president. They will make their move when Trump holds no official power to order the pacific fleet to assist Taiwan. When Taiwan cries out for help she will either do 2 things.. Do nothing and let China do its thing, or enact the emergency war powers act and suspend the election/vote counting and force herself to be the temp president for the time being and pass through a bunch of shitty presidential laws that change a lot of things that will only benefit the demoncraps and their left wing billionaire mates
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Post by milspec on Aug 13, 2020 13:58:12 GMT 10
Joey I dont think the US govt goes into caretaker mode between the Nov election and presidential inauguration on 20 Jan 2021. Pelosi in power would be a nightmare.
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Jul 7, 2024 11:02:41 GMT 10
Jul 7, 2024 11:02:41 GMT 10
