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Post by SA Hunter on Mar 27, 2021 11:39:07 GMT 10
As per suggestion from Frostbite in the "China Watch" section;
(For some reason the original post won't move to here, so I have cut & paste Frostbites initial post on this)
Original post on China Watch from frostbite;
So I'll start: I think it's a reasonable assumption that China will continue to assert itself it the oceans to our north and north east. They might even dominate the waters between us and PNG and take control of large parts of Antarctica. How will this affect us? What goods might become scarce and/or more expensive? Will it affect our supply of oil? Will our government fund a massive increase in defence spending to counter the Chinese military and will this result in cutbacks in other areas of government spending?
Thoughts, anyone?
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Post by milspec on Mar 27, 2021 13:17:55 GMT 10
We are a maritime nation, heavily reliant on our sea lines of supply. We never seriously planned/equipped for a large navy to interdict our maritime supply lanes. It would be a challenge for China to continually and effectively block our maritime supply lines but they could most certainly squeeze those lines of supply and that would effect availability of fuel and many other commodities. Rationing of fuels is therefore a possibility. I'd stock up on diesel before I headed to woolies to buy more toilet paper.
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Post by spinifex on Mar 27, 2021 15:16:30 GMT 10
One of my big concerns is how many crucial agricultural inputs we import from China. Even if their interdiction of our maritime supply lines is totally ineffectual we still will not be receiving the Synthetic fertilisers and agricultural chemicals we currently rely on and which originate from Chinese factories.
I'm not confident that our Ag industries can quickly re-jig sources and supply lines to get what we need from other countries.
It would be lovely to see chemical plants constructed here that can use our huge supplies of natural gas to produce Urea and AN fertilisers and the feedstocks required to synthesise our most critical and widely used Herbicides and insecticides. I'm not a fan of industrial agriculture ... but it keeps us all well fed in a way purely natural 'organic' systems cannot.
Supply of other stuff like tyres and mechanical parts is of concern to me too as a large global proportion of supply of those things originate from China too.
Its difficult to imagine now, but Oz went from full blown importer of these things to quite self sufficient between 1950 and 70. If only we had the leadership to run a 10 year program to bring back critical production.
Whats it mean to me personally:
Expect food may become much, much more expensive - invest in a nice patch of ground where its possible to grow plenty of things and raise some animals.
Expect transportation to become much, much more unreliable and expensive. Invest in good bicycles and supply of spare tubes, patches etc.
Expect mains power to become less reliable if replacement parts for infrastructure suffer a supply restriction.
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malewithatail
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Post by malewithatail on Mar 27, 2021 15:17:41 GMT 10
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Post by milspec on Mar 27, 2021 18:18:09 GMT 10
Clearly the author of that article doesn't know much about SSBN 'missile silos' |
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frostbite
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Post by frostbite on Mar 28, 2021 13:28:56 GMT 10
How many beatups by Australian media about China blocking our supply routes would it take to cause the sheeple to stampede and strip the shelves bare of food, seeds, gardening tools, fertilizers, toilet paper etc? A self fulfilling prophecy.
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Post by spinifex on Mar 29, 2021 17:23:50 GMT 10
Heaps.
The sheep are too dopey to understand until it happens. Then, and only then, do they pupate into locust.
And like locust, they will become desperate enough to eat synthetic grass and green coloured clothing off washing lines.
Locust are routinely controlled with aerial applied Fenitrothion. Chemicals are great. They really get the job done when the adversary is super-numerous.
Message to ADF: Invest in MRL's and CW munitions to suit. Shhhhhh ...on the down low of course.
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Post by spinifex on Mar 30, 2021 7:15:23 GMT 10
Just look at the latest round of panic buying in Brisbane due to covid lockdown.
The rate of learning is astonishingly slow.
I think next time a snap lockdown happens the "Authorities" might simultaneously shut supermarkets down for the first 24 hours.
That will really outrage the toilet-roll hoarders.
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malewithatail
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Post by malewithatail on Mar 30, 2021 11:01:23 GMT 10
I don't even think that will wake up the sheep to what's happening, and add to it the Suez canal cockup, and they still cant see how fragile the worlds supply lines are. With the price of everything rising, even toilet paper has become more expensive. the 1,000 rolls you have stored up are now worth twice the price ! Now add the fuel you've stored up as well as some food and it suddenly makes sense to prepare, also saves money in the long run.
Despite them saying fuel is only rising due to the coming holiday, 1)why should that affect the fuel price? 2) Only 12% of oil travelled through the canal, why should that cause a price rise ? Me thinks its just the fuel companies gouging prices, hoping the sheeples don't ask too many questions.
Once a mind is stretched to a new idea, it doesn't return to its original size.
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frostbite
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Post by frostbite on Mar 30, 2021 11:21:40 GMT 10
I think that recent events have shown that the non-prepared are prepared to react very quickly whenever they perceive an interuption to the supply chain. For example, the Premier announces a lockdown and within hours the locusts strip bare the supermarkets.
They even think like preppers temporarily and buy up freezers, seeds, gardening tools etc.
So even if the Chinese threat isn't real, if the media say it is then expect the panic buying to begin almost instantly. To counter this possibility I try not to have a last minute shopping list, I get everything I think I'll need now, because the locusts swarm is very fast indeed.
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malewithatail
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Post by malewithatail on Mar 30, 2021 12:07:23 GMT 10
"They even think like preppers temporarily and buy up freezers, seeds, gardening tools etc." That's a very good observation. When the immediate crisis is over, they will forget what it was like without things, or how expensive they got. The "it cant happen to me" idea will take over.
Whereas, we live by being prepared, or should be. It may never happen as we envisage, but even being ready for a flood, or bushfire, is a survival strategy. In a disaster, you wont be able to rely on the first responders as so many others will need help. Being a bit independent could mean the difference between an inconvenience, and disaster.
A Professor is someone who talks in someone elses sleep !
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grumble
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Post by grumble on Mar 30, 2021 13:22:37 GMT 10
I think that recent events have shown that the non-prepared are prepared to react very quickly whenever they perceive an interuption to the supply chain. For example, the Premier announces a lockdown and within hours the locusts strip bare the supermarkets. They even think like preppers temporarily and buy up freezers, seeds, gardening tools etc. So even if the Chinese threat isn't real, if the media say it is then expect the panic buying to begin almost instantly. To counter this possibility I try not to have a last minute shopping list, I get everything I think I'll need now, because the locusts swarm is very fast indeed. witnessed this yesterday at bunnings when QLD mandated masks were mandatory in all public places after 5 pm I was actually was there to get a few items for a project i was working on when it all went down the thing that stood out the most but didn't at 1st was the mini bus filled with certain people they pulled up they all filed out about 15 of them and entered bunnings i was like oh they are having an outing to bunnings. Next thing i know they had trolleys full of every type of masks and were heading for the checkouts the place was stripped before the average person knew what was going on and they were on their bus on to the next target probably to buy baby formula Now its easy to get angry at the situation but one has to respect the way they were so well informed and organised with a clear direction of purpose unlike a lot of Australians who sit on their veranda watching footy then try and get masks at 16:50 then abuse staff because there is none left Now i wasn't personally effected by this as i didn't need any masks i have plenty at home but it did show to me that if things did kick off from more than just hostile words and hot lead instead that its quite possible we could have problems on home soil very quickly if everyone isn't just a harmless student visa worker So the way i have adapted to the new world with my prepping supplies and general life is by adopting an approach of making sure i have parts and spares for critical equipment I've gone large on 18Volt tools and batteries with a solar set up to recharge them i even have an 18volt lawn mower , chainsaw , brush cutter , miter saw , circular saw , reciprocating saw and the list goes on I try to avoid buying stuff i know im not going to ever need in a real world situation because well its just false economy but i do have a handy list of critical spares for both our cars like fore my wife's car i have a spare injector and coil put away and a set of plugs i have done this because in the past we have had these items fail and it took a little while to get one ordered in when things were functioning normally It is extremely important that i point out my adaption to prepping due to disruption normal shipping supplies is about maintaining a level of normal civil activity ( normality ) so that means lawns mowed house maintained car in a serviceable condition life goes on and its not about a mad max type situation . Over the last couple of years we have progressively purged our house of non sustainable items that are critical to household function and replaced them with items that deliver a much longer service life and are either repairable or able to be substituted with by another item |
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Post by SA Hunter on Mar 30, 2021 16:47:18 GMT 10
Been pondering this for a bit - Yes & No.
I've been mindful of buying Australian Grown & Manufactured ( using Australian products ). ie tinned food, unless impossible, ie Tuna, Button Mushrooms. I avoid any Asian grown foods, where I can.
I've accumulated hunting/fishing/camping/prepping gear over many years, even before I began to "Prepare". Now, it's difficult to find gear not made in China.
What have the tensions done? Well, I am watching the news more - I read news from Asia, Europe, US etc, to try to keep a balanced approach. Our media thrives on sensationalism rather than factual news ( that oprah interview was lead item for how many days??? ) People want to be gently stroked and patted, being reassured that their "woke" world is untouchable and on a rock solid foundation.
I have no doubt there are things going on behind the scenes that we as the general public will never know about, and I find some reassurance in that knowledge.
If/when shtf in a big way (2020 was just a two line intro imho), as an economy & Nation, we will be choked out - fuel, fertiliser, tools, farm equipment, then food, clothes, kitchen appliances, no power, lpg, the list goes on. One can only plan as best as they can within their means.
I'm somewhat prepared, but won't really know how well until a real shtf scenario plays out and I am forced to put my planning into practice.
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Post by spinifex on Mar 30, 2021 17:09:48 GMT 10
I take solace in knowing some of my recent ancestors survived the worst of the worst (Eastern front in WW2, strategic obliteration of entire cities packed with refugees and genocide/mass expulsion) with far less kit and knowledge than what I now have access to.
The whole "Mad Max" fantasy a lot of Preppers think is "hard-core" is kindergarten compared with being systematically hunted down by a well equipped military force bent on revenge and long term occupation.
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malewithatail
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Post by malewithatail on Mar 30, 2021 17:10:54 GMT 10
SA hunter, try your preps out, live for a day or two without electric etc. I carried out an audit for a large Australian Company many years ago, simulating a grid failure. I made some recommendations re changes to the power network, which were done. I also recommended we turn off the power and make sure everything worked, backup generators kicked in etc. Cost was around $100K, too expensive, so it wasn't done. Fast forward 15 years, I've left and the grid goes down. Cost them over $15 million in fines for pollution and damaged equipment. I bet a lot of preppers in Texas wished they had tried things out before the big freeze killed the grid and led to frozen pipes etc.
I also carry a spare computer for the engine in my ute, along with a spare ignition module and a few other bits n pieces. I can completely rebuild the ignition circuit in my ute in 1/2 hr by the side of the road.
Fuel was/is a big issue as eventually, there will be a need to recharge your solar batteries after a prolonged overcast spell. That's why I have built a device that can make a burnable gas from wood, called producer gas. It works, but only has 60% the amount of energy as petrol has. I've also got the gear, turbine wheel etc, to build a steam turbine to drive a generator (an old Lucas dc type, not a modern alternator that may be useless after an emp),
if needed as a backup plan.
Backup of backup plans never go astray in an emergency.
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Beno
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Post by Beno on Mar 30, 2021 17:22:32 GMT 10
witnessed this yesterday at bunnings when QLD mandated masks were mandatory in all public places after 5 pm I was actually was there to get a few items for a project i was working on when it all went down the thing that stood out the most but didn't at 1st was the mini bus filled with certain people they pulled up they all filed out about 15 of them and entered bunnings i was like oh they are having an outing to bunnings. Next thing i know they had trolleys full of every type of masks and were heading for the checkouts the place was stripped before the average person knew what was going on and they were on their bus on to the next target probably to buy baby formula Now its easy to get angry at the situation but one has to respect the way they were so well informed and organised with a clear direction of purpose unlike a lot of Australians who sit on their veranda watching footy then try and get masks at 16:50 then abuse staff because there is none left Now i wasn't personally effected by this as i didn't need any masks i have plenty at home but it did show to me that if things did kick off from more than just hostile words and hot lead instead that its quite possible we could have problems on home soil very quickly if everyone isn't just a harmless student visa worker I would get angry if i saw this myself. This is another form of foreign subterfuge designed not to help others but possibly/likely cause further pain to normal Australians, to cause division and political polarisation. It was revealed recently there is a Chinese government backed “force” of over 30000 Chinese nationals who are capable of responding to any issue between chinese nationals and the police. With that sort of entity in Oz you’d have to be gullible Gary to think they are not capable of causing potential issues to deliberately inflame tensions beyond our borders to suit the agendas of other countries. Yes most of us are prepared beforehand but the fact that this is happening in a co-ordinated fashion and unchallenged is a major concern for me. How do people like this make Australia a better country? |
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Post by Joey on Mar 30, 2021 19:29:02 GMT 10
I was actually was there to get a few items for a project I was working on when it all went down the thing that stood out the most but didn't at 1st was the mini bus filled with certain people they pulled up they all filed out about 15 of them and entered Bunnings I was like, oh they are having an outing to Bunnings. The next thing I know they had trolleys full of every type of masks and were heading for the checkouts the place was stripped before the average person knew what was going on, and they were on their bus on to the next target probably to buy baby formula That sort of goes with my theory of how the toilet paper started. Like really "toilet paper" it's the flu, not a super gastro bug lol My theory was that because China was in lockdown for so long, that the foreign buyers switched from baby formula to toilet paper since that was something that was running short in China, and a few Aussies saw this happening and said "no F that, you can't take my dunny paper" and started to snap it back up in jest which just snow balled rom there with all the sheep following suite. |
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grumble
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Post by grumble on Mar 30, 2021 22:03:57 GMT 10
I take solace in knowing some of my recent ancestors survived the worst of the worst (Eastern front in WW2, strategic obliteration of entire cities packed with refugees and genocide/mass expulsion) with far less kit and knowledge than what I now have access to. The whole "Mad Max" fantasy a lot of Preppers think is "hard-core" is kindergarten compared with being systematically hunted down by a well equipped military force bent on revenge and long term occupation. This is my worst fear to large degree as well my parents had a very hard and brutal life for quite sometime they survived the bombing and retribution and the occupation they like many witnessed the true barbarity of mankind on a grand scale that was committed by"normal people " unthinkable things like mothers committing infanticide and fathers executing their daughters to "save" them witnessing things like anyone old enough or strong enough to hold a gun being gut shot and left to die in the streets yeah mad max is a fun hike in the woods compared to what can really happen |
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Post by SA Hunter on Mar 31, 2021 18:14:18 GMT 10
I take solace in knowing some of my recent ancestors survived the worst of the worst (Eastern front in WW2, strategic obliteration of entire cities packed with refugees and genocide/mass expulsion) with far less kit and knowledge than what I now have access to. The whole "Mad Max" fantasy a lot of Preppers think is "hard-core" is kindergarten compared with being systematically hunted down by a well equipped military force bent on revenge and long term occupation. One one side. my grandparents survived WW1, the Russian Revolution & a Gulag in Siberia, then escaping the USSR. The others survived WW2 and a German camp. Hopefully if tshtf, it's still in my genes to give me an edge. As per Spinifex suggestions in another thread, read as much as you can about people who survived these times. |
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