frostbite
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Post by frostbite on Jun 21, 2022 19:23:38 GMT 10
I haven't forgiven the Japanese for the atrocities they commited in WW2. I hope they have a total economic collapse.
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tactile
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Post by tactile on Jun 21, 2022 21:05:49 GMT 10
No more bits for your R1.
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frostbite
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Post by frostbite on Jun 22, 2022 5:14:17 GMT 10
No more bits for your R1. I'm actually considering selling the R1. Haven't ridden it for years.
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d
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Post by d on Jun 22, 2022 5:29:10 GMT 10
I haven't forgiven the Japanese for the atrocities they commited in WW2. I hope they have a total economic collapse. good thinking- I’m still angry at the Romans for killing Caesar! I’ll never use Roman numerals again I’ll tell you that right now.
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d
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Post by d on Jun 22, 2022 5:48:48 GMT 10
The bloodbath is now a reality. Stocks in bear market, another round of big falls expected today. Interest rates popping and housing markets crashing. Crypto currencies going to zero. Bitcoin in Nov was 62k now down to 21k and still falling. The last 7 recessions have been preceded by US bond yield curve inversion, which happened 2 days ago. More popcorn required to watch the mess come unglued. For those with n popcorn supplies.. get all the action from trading economics. tradingeconomics.com/Which indexes are you looking at to determine a Bear market? ASX 300 still has like 5% more it needs to lose for it to be in a bear market.. I think Wall Street might be bear territory but I’m a bit excited, good opportunity to load up on stocks
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Jun 22, 2022 12:39:51 GMT 10
The bloodbath is now a reality. Stocks in bear market, another round of big falls expected today. Interest rates popping and housing markets crashing. Which indexes are you looking at to determine a Bear market? ASX 300 still has like 5% more it needs to lose for it to be in a bear market.. I think Wall Street might be bear territory but I’m a bit excited, good opportunity to load up on stocksYou are a braver man than me. In 1929 and the Asian/Japanese market crash's it took decades to recover stock prices. Debt is highest ever recorded, the central banks are all tightening into stagflation. US bond yield curve 10y -2y has inverted. Last seven times that happened it ended up in recession. Why would it be different this time. US housing is getting trashed - prices dropping and sales drying up. It will be 2008, 1929 on steroids' the current crash. www.gurufocus.com/yield_curve.php
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d
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Post by d on Jun 22, 2022 13:33:45 GMT 10
You are a braver man than me. In 1929 and the Asian/Japanese market crash's it took decades to recover stock prices. Debt is highest ever recorded, the central banks are all tightening into stagflation. US bond yield curve 10y -2y has inverted. Last seven times that happened it ended up in recession. Why would it be different this time. US housing is getting trashed - prices dropping and sales drying up. It will be 2008, 1929 on steroids' the current crash. www.gurufocus.com/yield_curve.phpI’m fully expecting recessions along the way but historically the trend is up and being in the position I’m in debt isn’t a concern for me. Look at everything that’s happened in the past 150 years, all the wars, All the crashes, all the recessions and still we are very highly up.
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tactile
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Post by tactile on Jun 22, 2022 14:40:37 GMT 10
No more bits for your R1. I'm actually considering selling the R1. Haven't ridden it for years. Sell it now while someone will still give you decent money for it.
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frostbite
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Post by frostbite on Jun 22, 2022 15:00:48 GMT 10
I reckon the longer I wait the more it'll be worth. Not many 99's left in very good condition.
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Jun 22, 2022 15:49:38 GMT 10
’m fully expecting recessions along the way but historically the trend is up and being in the position I’m in debt isn’t a concern for me. Look at everything that’s happened in the past 150 years, all the wars, All the crashes, all the recessions and still we are very highly up. The risk is extreme... As I stated historically after a big crash it take decades for stocks to recover. The last 20y has been a bit different as central banks have been printing money and dropping interest rates like there is no tomorrow. They kicked the can down the preverbal road, and have now run out of road. Best to buy stocks after they have finished crashing (+85%). During a major crash those still with cash are able to buy assets like property etc. very cheaply and make a killing but not in financial stocks. 2008 GFC was only the US housing crash now US housing and global housing is in an ever bigger bubble and starting a spectacular crash. Now also every asset class in a bubble and crashing. US and most countries national debt is out in the twilight zone. China has bank freezes and construction bankruptcies, yip and major construction companies in Aus are also going broke. There is nowhere left to look for value. US Federal Debt...graph below. Historically every country that has printed money has suffered a spectacular crash - it wont be different this time only more spectacular.
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Post by ausprep130 on Jun 22, 2022 16:16:36 GMT 10
’m fully expecting recessions along the way but historically the trend is up and being in the position I’m in debt isn’t a concern for me. Look at everything that’s happened in the past 150 years, all the wars, All the crashes, all the recessions and still we are very highly up. The risk is extreme... As I stated historically after a big crash it take decades for stocks to recover. The last 20y has been a bit different as central banks have been printing money and dropping interest rates like there is no tomorrow. They kicked the can down the preverbal road, and have now run out of road. Best to buy stocks after they have finished crashing (+85%). During a major crash those still with cash are able to buy assets like property etc. very cheaply and make a killing but not in financial stocks. 2008 GFC was only the US housing crash now US housing and global housing is in an ever bigger bubble and starting a spectacular crash. Now also every asset class in a bubble and crashing. US and most countries national debt is out in the twilight zone. China has bank freezes and construction bankruptcies, yip and major construction companies in Aus are also going broke. There is nowhere left to look for value. US Federal Debt...graph below. Historically every country that has printed money has suffered a spectacular crash - it wont be different this time only more spectacular. I don't think this crash will impact house prices as severely as in the past. I suspect houses will be snapped up by cashed up investment companies rather than savvy individuals. Those companies will reap the rental rewards for years to come and then sell the house for a huge profit down the track.
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frostbite
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Post by frostbite on Jun 22, 2022 16:45:36 GMT 10
I suspect you're mostly correct. If big business buy up houses at discount prices they will hold onto them, all part of the 'you will own nothing and be happy' agenda.
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tactile
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Post by tactile on Jun 22, 2022 18:42:16 GMT 10
The question is who is cashed up? Not many, the hedge funds in the US that are buying up real-estate are doing it with cheap credit. Once interest rate rise they are in the same boat as everyone else and are going down the tubes.
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bug
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Post by bug on Jun 23, 2022 13:48:33 GMT 10
The best time to buy real estate is when interest rates are high. I'm ready to buy another, but am hanging out for now. In NSW, the change to stamp duty will increase prices on low end homes, delaying the price drop a little. It's gonna result in a lot of foreclosures though, with people having a pretty hefty land tax burden.
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d
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Post by d on Jun 24, 2022 6:30:24 GMT 10
’m fully expecting recessions along the way but historically the trend is up and being in the position I’m in debt isn’t a concern for me. Look at everything that’s happened in the past 150 years, all the wars, All the crashes, all the recessions and still we are very highly up. The risk is extreme... As I stated historically after a big crash it take decades for stocks to recover. The last 20y has been a bit different as central banks have been printing money and dropping interest rates like there is no tomorrow. They kicked the can down the preverbal road, and have now run out of road. Best to buy stocks after they have finished crashing (+85%). During a major crash those still with cash are able to buy assets like property etc. very cheaply and make a killing but not in financial stocks. 2008 GFC was only the US housing crash now US housing and global housing is in an ever bigger bubble and starting a spectacular crash. Now also every asset class in a bubble and crashing. US and most countries national debt is out in the twilight zone. China has bank freezes and construction bankruptcies, yip and major construction companies in Aus are also going broke. There is nowhere left to look for value. US Federal Debt...graph below. Historically every country that has printed money has suffered a spectacular crash - it wont be different this time only more spectacular. Compared to what? Not investing and having your buying power eroded by inflation? I’m kinda surprised that you think it’s actually that risky, I mean, just position your shit so you don’t sell in a down market… and if you are waiting for and 85% drop then you will have missed out on…all growth.
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Jun 24, 2022 9:58:37 GMT 10
Compared to what? Not investing and having your buying power eroded by inflation? I’m kinda surprised that you think it’s actually that risky, I mean, just position your shit so you don’t sell in a down market… and if you are waiting for and 85% drop then you will have missed out on…all growth. My Crystal ball indicates we are already in a down market and heading for a +85% drop. Lately stocks have tried to recover based on imminent recession and thinking the federal reserves banks of the world will have to drop interest rates and start stimulus again caused by stagflation. There are very many well known investors saying the same thing. www.nxtmine.com/precious-metals/doug-casey-on-crashing-markets-commodities-what-happens-next/"Everybody’s paying attention to the stock market because they’re fully invested. The meme stocks, SPACs, and tech stocks have all collapsed. The big ones are down 25%, and many are down 80 or 90%. It’s not over yet. People still feel that they can buy the dips. They’re hurting, but they’ve been paper-trained over a couple of generations to believe the Fed will kiss everything and make it better..... This is not “transitory”—a word those fools no longer use. It’s going to get much worse; we’re at the edge of a precipice. We’re headed for real chaos, with a possibility of WW3."
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bug
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Post by bug on Jun 24, 2022 12:23:08 GMT 10
A relative of mine made a literal fortune buy purchasing shares during the 86 crash. He bought woodside oil. Lots of it. Retired immediately afterwards.
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d
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Post by d on Jun 25, 2022 5:10:16 GMT 10
Compared to what? Not investing and having your buying power eroded by inflation? I’m kinda surprised that you think it’s actually that risky, I mean, just position your shit so you don’t sell in a down market… and if you are waiting for and 85% drop then you will have missed out on…all growth. My Crystal ball indicates we are already in a down market and heading for a +85% drop. Lately stocks have tried to recover based on imminent recession and thinking the federal reserves banks of the world will have to drop interest rates and start stimulus again caused by stagflation. There are very many well known investors saying the same thing. www.nxtmine.com/precious-metals/doug-casey-on-crashing-markets-commodities-what-happens-next/"Everybody’s paying attention to the stock market because they’re fully invested. The meme stocks, SPACs, and tech stocks have all collapsed. The big ones are down 25%, and many are down 80 or 90%. It’s not over yet. People still feel that they can buy the dips. They’re hurting, but they’ve been paper-trained over a couple of generations to believe the Fed will kiss everything and make it better..... This is not “transitory”—a word those fools no longer use. It’s going to get much worse; we’re at the edge of a precipice. We’re headed for real chaos, with a possibility of WW3." And yet the Aussie index is down only 14% (not even a bear market) and is actually up 1.2% for the week. You continue conflating current noise and are ignoring the over all trend, the fact remains that over time stocks (as long and you can leave them alone) are less of a risk than leaving long term money in a safe when it comes to growing wealth.
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Jun 25, 2022 10:03:10 GMT 10
And yet the Aussie index is down only 14% (not even a bear market) and is actually up 1.2% for the week. You continue conflating current noise and are ignoring the over all trend, the fact remains that over time stocks (as long and you can leave them alone) are less of a risk than leaving long term money in a safe when it comes to growing wealth. Interest rates are going up inflation is going up, gov and private debt is at all time high, war is on again, economies are shrinking: it is not noise but a tsunami of problems. Gov is raising rates into a recession... How is that going to end well.
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Post by ausprep130 on Jun 25, 2022 10:06:59 GMT 10
I tend to agree with Spatial.
If you get out early you might miss a small percentage of growth but you will avoid the large percentage fall.
If the fall takes 12 months, you can always get back in then and ride the wave back up.
For example. If you have $100,000 now and you take it out you might miss out on 5% growth over the short term. If the market loses 30% over the next 12 months you will be better off than if you left it in there.
Quite simple concept but it is all about timing. That's the hard part.
Inflation is a mute point if the cash is just sitting there waiting to re-invest in stocks. Inflation only devalues your money when you spend it on something that has gone up in price. Like food, fuel etc. If shares drop 30% and you re-invest then you have effectively increased the amount of shares you own by 30%.
$100,000 of shares now at $10 a share is 10000 shares. $100,000 of shares in 12 months when shares have dropped 30% to $7 a share is 14285 shares. 30% more shares. $100,000 of food/fuel now at $10 food/fuel is 10000 food/fuel. $100,000 of food/fuel in 12 months when food/fuel are $13 is 7692 food/fuel. 30% less food/fuel.
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