bug
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Post by bug on Jun 25, 2022 12:05:38 GMT 10
And yet the Aussie index is down only 14% (not even a bear market) and is actually up 1.2% for the week. You continue conflating current noise and are ignoring the over all trend, the fact remains that over time stocks (as long and you can leave them alone) are less of a risk than leaving long term money in a safe when it comes to growing wealth. Interest rates are going up inflation is going up, gov and private debt is at all time high, war is on again, economies are shrinking: it is not noise but a tsunami of problems. Gov is raising rates into a recession... How is that going to end well. Those problems don't create a uniform crash of a stockmarket. There are no shortage of companies who profit from war, disasters, inflation etc. Eg: during high inflation in war time, wouldn't touch a highly leveraged company that uses SPVs and relies on a stable economy. But an established company that sells munitions or key raw materials can make a fortune from booming sales and an empoverished labour pool. Hard times are when the greatest transfers of wealth occur. You just need to make sure you're on the right side of it. |
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Post by ausprep130 on Jun 25, 2022 12:18:26 GMT 10
I think it's more about the current overvaluation of companies rather than their ability to grow and make profit.
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d
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Post by d on Jun 25, 2022 12:21:37 GMT 10
I tend to agree with Spatial. If you get out early you might miss a small percentage of growth but you will avoid the large percentage fall. If the fall takes 12 months, you can always get back in then and ride the wave back up. For example. If you have $100,000 now and you take it out you might miss out on 5% growth over the short term. If the market loses 30% over the next 12 months you will be better off than if you left it in there. Quite simple concept but it is all about timing. That's the hard part. Inflation is a mute point if the cash is just sitting there waiting to re-invest in stocks. Inflation only devalues your money when you spend it on something that has gone up in price. Like food, fuel etc. If shares drop 30% and you re-invest then you have effectively increased the amount of shares you own by 30%. $100,000 of shares now at $10 a share is 10000 shares. $100,000 of shares in 12 months when shares have dropped 30% to $7 a share is 14285 shares. 30% more shares. $100,000 of food/fuel now at $10 food/fuel is 10000 food/fuel. $100,000 of food/fuel in 12 months when food/fuel are $13 is 7692 food/fuel. 30% less food/fuel. And it’s this kind of thinking that leads the average investor to woefully underperform the market. You need to remember the world is always on the edge of calamity, and historically the market continues to grow. |
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Jun 25, 2022 15:52:52 GMT 10
And it’s this kind of thinking that leads the average investor to woefully underperform the market. You need to remember the world is always on the edge of calamity, and historically the market continues to grow. Since 2008 the global governments have been dropping inordinate amount of money onto the markets and lowering interest rates to below zero for Japan and the EU. there is no fundamental rational for such money printing. Every major world government has collapsed due to inflation. The Chinese Dynasties, Greeks, Mongols, Ottoman empire, the romans etc... In they were throwing coins onto the streets due to bread riots to no avail the government collapsed. The 1029 crash took more than 20y for stocks to recover, the same with the Asian crash. We now have runaway inflation with economic recession (stagflation), what has happened over the last 20y is completely unrealistic due to gov intervention. There is now war and massive climatic and natural disasters hitting the planted all at the same time, covid lockdowns. It is very delusional to think that the markets will keep going up. There will be a reset and money as we know it will disappear. |
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bug
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Post by bug on Jun 25, 2022 16:02:03 GMT 10
Sorry Spatial, saying things like "money as we know it will disappear" is just taking it too far. Government debt doesn't mean that the money has somehow disappeared. Most government debt is held by non-resident investors. The assets that the debt is held against aren't going anywhere. No matter how much money a government prints, the intrinsic value of an iron-ore mine or a port does not change. The 'dollar value' may change due to the de-valuation of a currency, but not the intrinsic value.
There have been countless attempts to get rid of money, invariably by authoritarian states. They always fail.
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tactile
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Post by tactile on Jun 25, 2022 16:38:33 GMT 10
For those in crypto...beware the tax man, report your capital gains. Especially the last financial.
Assuming you have acquired through normal means... 
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malewithatail
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Post by malewithatail on Jun 25, 2022 16:39:10 GMT 10
WW3 will fix it all........
Illiterate ? Write for free help.
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d
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Post by d on Jun 25, 2022 17:51:40 GMT 10
And it’s this kind of thinking that leads the average investor to woefully underperform the market. You need to remember the world is always on the edge of calamity, and historically the market continues to grow. Since 2008 the global governments have been dropping inordinate amount of money onto the markets and lowering interest rates to below zero for Japan and the EU. there is no fundamental rational for such money printing. Every major world government has collapsed due to inflation. The Chinese Dynasties, Greeks, Mongols, Ottoman empire, the romans etc... In they were throwing coins onto the streets due to bread riots to no avail the government collapsed. The 1029 crash took more than 20y for stocks to recover, the same with the Asian crash. We now have runaway inflation with economic recession (stagflation), what has happened over the last 20y is completely unrealistic due to gov intervention. There is now war and massive climatic and natural disasters hitting the planted all at the same time, covid lockdowns. It is very delusional to think that the markets will keep going up. There will be a reset and money as we know it will disappear. Do you realise stocks aren’t money so it doesn’t actually matter how you denominate the value as long as the companies retain value then the stock does too. |
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bug
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Post by bug on Jun 25, 2022 17:56:07 GMT 10
Yup. That's how it works. What you'll often see is a company that operates in an area with a trashed economy like Africa, will list on the stock exchange of a western nation and (almost) totally avoid the local currency problems.
Where this can come undone is when the company's customers disappear due to economic problems in their country.
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d
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Post by d on Jun 25, 2022 18:17:02 GMT 10
Yup. That's how it works. What you'll often see is a company that operates in an area with a trashed economy like Africa, will list on the stock exchange of a western nation and (almost) totally avoid the local currency problems. Where this can come undone is when the company's customers disappear due to economic problems in their country. Plus when buying indexs if a company drops off the next replaces it so if buying an international index you can arbitrage the country risk too. |
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Jun 26, 2022 1:24:58 GMT 10
www.zerohedge.com/markets/prepare-tidal-wave-evictionsWith no federal eviction moratorium in place, 8.4 million Americans, or about 15% of all renters, who are behind on rent, are at risk of being evicted. The new figures were part of a Census Bureau survey conducted between June 1 to June 13 of households and was first reported by Bloomberg.
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bug
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Post by bug on Jun 26, 2022 14:29:52 GMT 10
www.zerohedge.com/markets/prepare-tidal-wave-evictionsWith no federal eviction moratorium in place, 8.4 million Americans, or about 15% of all renters, who are behind on rent, are at risk of being evicted. The new figures were part of a Census Bureau survey conducted between June 1 to June 13 of households and was first reported by Bloomberg. "Some of those living beyond their means may get a reality check." Next. |
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d
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Post by d on Jun 27, 2022 19:27:31 GMT 10
www.zerohedge.com/markets/prepare-tidal-wave-evictionsWith no federal eviction moratorium in place, 8.4 million Americans, or about 15% of all renters, who are behind on rent, are at risk of being evicted. The new figures were part of a Census Bureau survey conducted between June 1 to June 13 of households and was first reported by Bloomberg. "Some of those living beyond their means may get a reality check." Next. Wait.. you man I should spend LESS than I earn?!? Well this is brand new information. |
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Jun 27, 2022 23:30:58 GMT 10
"Some of those living beyond their means may get a reality check." Next. Wait.. you man I should spend LESS than I earn?!? Well this is brand new information. His advice in David Copperfield was this: ‘Annual income 20 pounds, annual expenditure 19 [pounds] 19 [shillings] and six [pence], result happiness. Annual income 20 pounds, annual expenditure 20 pounds ought and six, result misery.’ Gov are spending way more than they receive from taxes, and continuing to expand, there is one outcome misery.. Australians have the highest personal debt in the world, US savings rates are dropping due to inflation. The consumer gig economy is going to implode. tradingeconomics.com/united-states/personal-savings |
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d
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Post by d on Jun 28, 2022 5:42:12 GMT 10
Wait.. you man I should spend LESS than I earn?!? Well this is brand new information. His advice in David Copperfield was this: ‘Annual income 20 pounds, annual expenditure 19 [pounds] 19 [shillings] and six [pence], result happiness. Annual income 20 pounds, annual expenditure 20 pounds ought and six, result misery.’ Gov are spending way more than they receive from taxes, and continuing to expand, there is one outcome misery.. Australians have the highest personal debt in the world, US savings rates are dropping due to inflation. The consumer gig economy is going to implode. tradingeconomics.com/united-states/personal-savingsDo you believe that the same rules apply for a country as for an individual? |
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Beno
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Post by Beno on Jun 28, 2022 7:14:55 GMT 10
Wait.. you man I should spend LESS than I earn?!? Well this is brand new information. His advice in David Copperfield was this: ‘Annual income 20 pounds, annual expenditure 19 [pounds] 19 [shillings] and six [pence], result happiness. Annual income 20 pounds, annual expenditure 20 pounds ought and six, result misery.’ Gov are spending way more than they receive from taxes, and continuing to expand, there is one outcome misery.. Australians have the highest personal debt in the world, US savings rates are dropping due to inflation. The consumer gig economy is going to implode. tradingeconomics.com/united-states/personal-savingsThey became obsessed with our savings over the past 18 months. It looks like the US was quicker to get their grubby digits onto their citizens had earned. Philip Lowe from the reserve bank could not stop stop talking about how everything will be relatively ok due to Aussies having something like 250 billion in the bank. Like every other pool of money the government manipulates watch those saving evaporate in 6 months. |
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Jun 28, 2022 7:21:34 GMT 10
Do you believe that the same rules apply for a country as for an individual? Yes indeed, The Chinese dynasty that built the great wall of china went broke and fell apart. The Romans, the Weimar republic, and many recent country's, too many to mention, like Zimbabwe, Greece, Spain, Siri Lanka that had to be bailed out by the EU or IMF. Economic principles like gravity cant be broken without consequences. The thinking that gov can spend to eternity with no consequences... is very wrong. Why does the gov not just print hundreds of billions and make every citizen a millionaire and we all live the good life with no poverty!! |
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d
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Post by d on Jun 28, 2022 8:21:36 GMT 10
Do you believe that the same rules apply for a country as for an individual? Yes indeed, The Chinese dynasty that built the great wall of china went broke and fell apart. The Romans, the Weimar republic, and many recent country's, too many to mention, like Zimbabwe, Greece, Spain, Siri Lanka that had to be bailed out by the EU or IMF. Economic principles like gravity cant be broken without consequences. The thinking that gov can spend to eternity with no consequences... is very wrong. Why does the gov not just print hundreds of billions and make every citizen a millionaire and we all live the good life with no poverty!! I’m not saying they can spend with out consequences, I’m saying their ability to tax a population and their ability to create or destroy currency as well as manipulate the value of that currency not to mention GDP does change the rules of engagement a bit in terms of a deficient always being bad |
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Jun 28, 2022 11:19:21 GMT 10
Yes indeed, The Chinese dynasty that built the great wall of china went broke and fell apart. The Romans, the Weimar republic, and many recent country's, too many to mention, like Zimbabwe, Greece, Spain, Siri Lanka that had to be bailed out by the EU or IMF. Economic principles like gravity cant be broken without consequences. The thinking that gov can spend to eternity with no consequences... is very wrong. Why does the gov not just print hundreds of billions and make every citizen a millionaire and we all live the good life with no poverty!! I’m not saying they can spend with out consequences, I’m saying their ability to tax a population and their ability to create or destroy currency as well as manipulate the value of that currency not to mention GDP does change the rules of engagement a bit in terms of a deficient always being bad Yip it just takes longer for the collapse as gov have more assets to sell off, but the result is the same. Imagine a country banning fuel sales due to lack of foreign capital... Sri Lanka suspends fuel sales for two weeks as economic crisis worsensCash-strapped Sri Lanka has announced a two-week halt to all fuel sales except for essential services and called for a partial shutdown as its unprecedented economic crisis deepened. Last week, all government schools were shut down and state institutions operated with skeleton staff to reduce commuting and preserve oil. www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/28/sri-lanka-suspends-fuel-sales-for-two-weeks-as-economic-crisis-worsens |
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Jun 28, 2022 11:30:56 GMT 10
Yes indeed, The Chinese dynasty that built the great wall of china went broke and fell apart. The Romans, the Weimar republic, and many recent country's, too many to mention, like Zimbabwe, Greece, Spain, Siri Lanka that had to be bailed out by the EU or IMF. Economic principles like gravity cant be broken without consequences. The thinking that gov can spend to eternity with no consequences... is very wrong. Why does the gov not just print hundreds of billions and make every citizen a millionaire and we all live the good life with no poverty!! I’m not saying they can spend with out consequences, I’m saying their ability to tax a population and their ability to create or destroy currency as well as manipulate the value of that currency not to mention GDP does change the rules of engagement a bit in terms of a deficient always being bad Japan is the next country to go down the gurgler. "The Rubicon Has Been Crossed": The BOJ Now Owns More Than 50% Of All Japanese Bonds
www.zerohedge.com/markets/rubicon-has-been-crossed-boj-now-owns-more-50-all-japanese-bondsA little over three years ago, the Bank of Japan crossed a historic milestone when we reported that the central bank had become a top-10 shareholder in 50% of all Japanese companies. Since then, the central bank's equity stake across Japanese corporations has only grown. One week ago, we also reported that the BOJ was on the verge of crossing the final "50%" Rubicon, when as consequence of the latest surge in bond buying by Kuroda's central bank meant to prevent the bank's Yield Curve Control from collapsing, the BoJ was brought to a place it almost certainly never envisaged when it started QE as a “temporary” measure back in 2001 -- owning virtually half of the JGB market.  |
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