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Post by ausprep130 on Jul 9, 2022 9:39:43 GMT 10
Frostbite may have used an extreme example to illustrate his point but rather than attacking or mocking the specific example he used I instead think about his point.
Australia is a large country with long distances between towns and large numbers of people with a requirement to tow - whether it is gravel/sand, or a boat/caravan etc.
For what ever reason one needs to travel long distances, electric simply cannot match ICE. At least not until cars can be rapid charged anywhere.
If you only have to travel between Bondi and Vaucluse then an EV is suitable. And whilst that suits a majority of people the majority of the time it doesn't suit everyone, nor does it suit the majority of the people all the time.
EV's require people to plan their driving habits. Easy if all you do is drive 10km to work and back and maybe a 50km round trip on the weekend. Not so easy if you travel a variety of distances all day for work, have kids that need driving to activities, have heavy tow requirements etc. Sometimes you just can't fit in the time to fully charge the battery. Happens all the time with mobile phones. Surely people would plug them in to charge while they sleep but still people run low on battery. Especially those 'power users' that are on social media all day which is akin to driving all day towing a heavy trailer.
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frostbite
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Post by frostbite on Jul 9, 2022 9:57:35 GMT 10
Canberra is a pimple on the arse of Australia. It's irrelevant to the overall situation in Australia, where the vast majority of electricity still comes from coal. I'd love to have an ev vehicle, but until they can travel 700km towing a cubic metre of gravel or river sand and recharge in 10 minutes, then they are not fit for for purpose for me. We don't all live in micro cities sipping latte and going to flower festivals. A question came to mind while I was sipping latte, why do you need to drive 700km to get river sand? Don’t they have sand where you are/ the ability to get sand more locally/ some sort of local river sand aficionados group where you can trade in your imported artisanal sands? the progress of the country isn’t really focused on passenger cars lugging dirt from one place to another place. What’s not discussed is vehicle types, commercials like utes, vans and trucks have a different use case which needs to be addressed before unilateral bans of new ICE powered cars can be reasonably considered. Also, Canberra is the best part of Australia, I can get both latte and river sand here. My retreat does have river sand, but I'm saving that for an emergency, like perhaps shtf or when the social credit system returns and prevents me from buying it from the local supplier. Why 700km? That's the return trip from home to the retreat. Why transport the sand? Because I'm yet to convince the local supplier to open late at night when I normally pass through. Ev's are for metro people who can't see past their own very limited horizon. This is a huge country, with lots of people travelling huge distances through remote areas, not serviced by internet, phone or recharging stations.
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norseman
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Post by norseman on Jul 9, 2022 9:58:00 GMT 10
Frostbite may have used an extreme example to illustrate his point but rather than attacking or mocking the specific example he used I instead think about his point. Australia is a large country with long distances between towns and large numbers of people with a requirement to tow - whether it is gravel/sand, or a boat/caravan etc. For what ever reason one needs to travel long distances, electric simply cannot match ICE. At least not until cars can be rapid charged anywhere. If you only have to travel between Bondi and Vaucluse then an EV is suitable. And whilst that suits a majority of people the majority of the time it doesn't suit everyone, nor does it suit the majority of the people all the time. EV's require people to plan their driving habits. Easy if all you do is drive 10km to work and back and maybe a 50km round trip on the weekend. Not so easy if you travel a variety of distances all day for work, have kids that need driving to activities, have heavy tow requirements etc. Sometimes you just can't fit in the time to fully charge the battery. Happens all the time with mobile phones. Surely people would plug them in to charge while they sleep but still people run low on battery. Especially those 'power users' that are on social media all day which is akin to driving all day towing a heavy trailer. Driving around inside the Canberra bubble is ideal application of EV technology!
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d
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Post by d on Jul 9, 2022 10:03:16 GMT 10
No one said they are lying, it’s a case of the solution they bought does not suit their requirements- it’s an example of the reason we have so many consultants and subject matter experts working in our government, those with buying authority often have no idea about the actual problems the solution is supposed to address. Is a ratchet inherently bad because it sucks at driving nails? No it’s the wrong tool for the job. I don't dispute it mate! I reckon the purchase of EV's was probably forced on them in the first place! My point is this crap will be a thousand times worse in Oz where we will blindly follow like we always do and or we get screwed because of bad advice! Can’t really speak for how they do shit there but that’s not how government procurement works here.
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Post by Joey on Jul 9, 2022 10:44:13 GMT 10
I foresee a significant strain on the power grid over the next decade as more people take up EV's on our aging power grid. I reckon that instead of full EV, they should be pushing more hybrids, especially for Australia where we have much longer distances between larger population centres.
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d
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Post by d on Jul 9, 2022 11:28:38 GMT 10
A question came to mind while I was sipping latte, why do you need to drive 700km to get river sand? Don’t they have sand where you are/ the ability to get sand more locally/ some sort of local river sand aficionados group where you can trade in your imported artisanal sands? the progress of the country isn’t really focused on passenger cars lugging dirt from one place to another place. What’s not discussed is vehicle types, commercials like utes, vans and trucks have a different use case which needs to be addressed before unilateral bans of new ICE powered cars can be reasonably considered. Also, Canberra is the best part of Australia, I can get both latte and river sand here. My retreat does have river sand, but I'm saving that for an emergency, like perhaps shtf or when the social credit system returns and prevents me from buying it from the local supplier. Why 700km? That's the return trip from home to the retreat. Why transport the sand? Because I'm yet to convince the local supplier to open late at night when I normally pass through. Ev's are for metro people who can't see past their own very limited horizon. This is a huge country, with lots of people travelling huge distances through remote areas, not serviced by internet, phone or recharging stations. Seems like it’s your very limited horizon which is the limiting factor here.
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frostbite
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Post by frostbite on Jul 9, 2022 11:34:20 GMT 10
D, your opinion will matter to me only when you have a remote retreat built and serviced by your EV. Until then I won't let the latte set's pipe dreams get in the way of my reality.
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d
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Post by d on Jul 9, 2022 11:50:56 GMT 10
D, your opinion will matter to me only when you have a remote retreat built and serviced by your EV. Until then I won't let the latte set's pipe dreams get in the way of my reality. *shrug* I don’t want a remote retreat but really it’s not hard, just a waste of money.. but your reality (as the minority) is kinda irrelevant when the majority are voting with their dollars.
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captain
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Post by captain on Jul 9, 2022 13:04:38 GMT 10
D, your opinion will matter to me only when you have a remote retreat built and serviced by your EV. Until then I won't let the latte set's pipe dreams get in the way of my reality. *shrug* I don’t want a remote retreat but really it’s not hard, just a waste of money.. but your reality (as the minority) is kinda irrelevant when the majority are voting with their dollars. One thing to consider too - australia is one of the most urbanised countries in the world - with about 85-90% of the total population living in the Brissie-Sydney-Melbourne strip/region. The minority, and I repeat, the minority fall out of our urbanised environment. So the arguement about people needing to travel 700kms is not really accurate because there are town/s roads and servos that cater for those people. The vast majority of aussies are not travelling 700kms with no-one or no infrastructure along the way. putting this simply, the infrastructure and urbanised nature of our country suits evs for the majority of aussies. look at what is happening in europe and other parts of the world. We are falling behind in many ways and if you really are prepping for a future, then look at what the future is going to bring us - and it appears evs are coming. So you’d be a fool to not prepare for them. If a full blown ev doesn’t suit your needs, then get a hybrid. Simple really.
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Beno
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Post by Beno on Jul 9, 2022 15:05:19 GMT 10
As a so called “prepper” i relish the chance to “fill” up my vehicle with my own “juice” aka use my solar to charge my car. I also like the idea the EV can be a back up power supply to my house, that it is quiet and less like.y to draw attention in shtf, that it will out perform 95% of its ICE competitors in terms of torque and acceleration such as tesla model 3 can do 0-100 in 3 seconds, should be much cheaper servicing. If that makes me a latte sipper then *gulp* add caramel next time please.
However i see restrictions being in place for home charging, Australia will bugger up fast charging through incompetence and risk the whole show in EVs, i don’t like all the AI “smart” crap and other flashy junk that comes with new cars and EVs will be full of it. EVs will create havoc with the grid under current circumstances. Most importantly batteries are likely to suffer from huge shortages of critical components all the way through the supply chain, call it Liebigs law of the minimum for EVs.
Why Piss all over FB for saying what he requires of an EV? The cybertruck would not be far off what he needs. In a few years he will likely be able to get what he wants. I love the green handed slapdowns that instantly appear when one dares to fault the so called green revolution. Calm down little Gretas “how dare you”.
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d
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Post by d on Jul 9, 2022 16:45:12 GMT 10
Why Piss all over FB for saying what he requires of an EV? The cybertruck would not be far off what he needs. In a few years he will likely be able to get what he wants. I love the green handed slapdowns that instantly appear when one dares to fault the so called green revolution. Calm down little Gretas “how dare you”. I think you are confused, none of us are handing out green handed slapdowns- just pointing out that although we don’t participate in random sand haulage doesn’t mean there isn’t more to consider outside of your use case.
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malewithatail
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Post by malewithatail on Jul 9, 2022 16:45:36 GMT 10
"However i see restrictions being in place for home charging, Australia will bugger up fast charging through incompetence and risk the whole show in EVs, i don’t like all the AI “smart” crap and other flashy junk that comes with new cars and EVs will be full of it. EVs will create havoc with the grid under current circumstances. Most importantly batteries are likely to suffer from huge shortages of critical components all the way through the supply chain, call it Liebigs law of the minimum for EVs. " 10 years ago,who would have thought the then brand new lithium battery technology would mature to what it is, and getting better. We are looking at installing somenew solar systems on various dwellings here, and upgrading another one, and seriously considering lithium technology. 3.000 cycles to 90 %, 8,000 cycles (21 years) to 20 %, lead acid cant keep up and would be destroyed in a year or so. Yes, nicad or nife are good cycling alternatives, but expensive and not easily obtainable. 400 amp hours at 24 volts for around $7 K. The said cells are designed for EV's, but are a large format prismatic type vs the Tesla style of 1,000 's of small cells (18650 cells), all connected up in series, parallel groups and giving 1,000 's of potential points of failure. I remember seeing, in a Popular Mechanics Magazine or similar, in the 60's, a design for a road that acted like an opened up transformer and could run a vehicle without needing a battery. I think a pilot project was even built, but probably stomped on by the oil industry at the time. EV's are a technology that hasn't quite come of age yet, but will it have massive ramifications when, not if, it matures, and once again, charging is the issue. There was talk about exchangeable battery paks, u drive in, the battery is swapped over for a full one, and out u go in less than 10 minutes. I think EV's are where Lithium battery's were 10 years ago, not quite perfected and with potential. Fossil fuels will still be needed,or perhaps hydrogen, and heavy vehicles are an issue, especially a 4 or 5 trailer road train, powered by a massive 1,000 hp diesel, thundering along at 80 mph for 100's Km will be hard to replace with an electric equivalent. The biggest problem is going to be charging. There is already laws in the EU that make it compulsory for the EV manufacturer to allow the Electric Company to remotely shut down EV charging during peak hours, say 6 till 10 pm. Also, Teslas seem to catch fire easily,and the cops on the UK are having issues with EV's dying during chases and having to call for a backup conventional vehicle to rescue them. Perhaps a stop gap technology is hybrid, less emissions, which is appealing to the greenies, and also unlimited range, albeit at a slower pace due to the much smaller engine and generator. Perhaps plastering the vehicle with super efficient solar cells, who knows what can happen with enough money shoved at the problem. Perhaps cold fusion will get up and run, all I'm saying is that technology doesn't stand still. The technology now in micro processors is an example. Chips are now being produced commercially containing over 70 trillion transistors.
There is too much cash being splashed at the EV issue to not have someone crack it.
The future is going to be interesting, if we survive to see it. Its easier to obtain forgiveness than permission.
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Beno
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Post by Beno on Jul 9, 2022 16:56:45 GMT 10
Why Piss all over FB for saying what he requires of an EV? The cybertruck would not be far off what he needs. In a few years he will likely be able to get what he wants. I love the green handed slapdowns that instantly appear when one dares to fault the so called green revolution. Calm down little Gretas “how dare you”. I think you are confused, none of us are handing out green handed slapdowns- just pointing out that although we don’t participate in random sand haulage doesn’t mean there isn’t more to consider outside of your use case. “Seems like it’s your very limited horizon which is the limiting factor here.” Mate what do you actually have to offer here other than being a pest? You’ve offered nothing of substance other than being pointlessly argumentative and agitating. What do you want from all this?
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frostbite
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Post by frostbite on Jul 9, 2022 17:11:54 GMT 10
In between reading D'd 'valuable' contribution to this forum, I'm sitting beside an open fire at my coastal retreat, puffing on a giant Cuban cigar and sipping bourbon. Surf is up, I can hear the waves. Waiting for the Mrs to serve my steak dinner.
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bug
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Post by bug on Jul 9, 2022 17:38:14 GMT 10
This whole 'coal vs renewables' thing is a total red herring. It's usually raised by people who like fossil fuels, but claim that EVs being powered by fossil fuels is somehow a problem. The number of people killed by toxic exhaust from ICE vehicles alone is enough to justify phasing them out. Any claims of environmental benefits are a side issue.
Markets react to regulations like this. You can bet your bottom dollar that every single major auto manufacturer is now planning on having adequate factor space for this and are well underway with their supply chains. Miners will now invest in projects that they may not have done so previously. 10 years is enough time to do this. New mines generally take 3-5 years to get to production stage. Factories are faster. Energy retailers will be selling plans to consumers to use their EVs as distributed grid battery systems, smoothing out the variability of renewables. The price per kWh of battery capacity is coming down at around 20% per year. Vehicle range should not be an issue at all in 10 yrs time.
For those who don't give a sheet about whose lungs they poison, enjoy paying $10/L (to some dictator in the middle east) for fuel when the petroleum supply chains shut down for anything that isn't plastics or lubricants etc. Just stay the hell away from the rest of us.
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bug
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Post by bug on Jul 9, 2022 17:41:10 GMT 10
I foresee a significant strain on the power grid over the next decade as more people take up EV's on our aging power grid. I reckon that instead of full EV, they should be pushing more hybrids, especially for Australia where we have much longer distances between larger population centres. The Australian regulator AEMO views it the other way around. There is an incredible amount of new transmission line projects underway. They also view EV batteries as the biggest free kick for the transmission system in decades. Transmission companies have been looking at how to implement distributed batteries around the system to assist with voltage regulation for a long time. They are about to get it for free.
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captain
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Post by captain on Jul 9, 2022 19:54:32 GMT 10
I foresee a significant strain on the power grid over the next decade as more people take up EV's on our aging power grid. I reckon that instead of full EV, they should be pushing more hybrids, especially for Australia where we have much longer distances between larger population centres. The Australian regulator AEMO views it the other way around. There is an incredible amount of new transmission line projects underway. They also view EV batteries as the biggest free kick for the transmission system in decades. Transmission companies have been looking at how to implement distributed batteries around the system to assist with voltage regulation for a long time. They are about to get it for free. And this is where micro or macro grids come into play too. Each of these smaller, mostly rural grids are fed from renewables and also have batteries as storage and are designed to pump excess power back out onto the main grid - and therefore getting some form of financial benefit from the majors. I believe some newer urban suburbs are also being designed like this. But there definitely are rural areas doing it. Such a grid may supply 20-50 places. besides the lithium mining companies, designers and suppliers of macro grids could possibly be a good investment. Do your own research though. Btw - I admit I’ve got shares in some lithium companies and apart from the recent asx issues, I am happy for the long term. as a prepper and wanting not to rely on others, then evs make a lot of sense.
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bug
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Post by bug on Jul 10, 2022 8:45:21 GMT 10
That's correct. Electricity over and under supply is tied closely to market price. Retailers are now offering EV owners the ability to trade in the market. You set a minimum charge level for your EV, say 60%, and trade in the market with the rest. During oversupply you get paid to 'fill up'. During short supply, you get paid a very high rate for selling back to the grid.
As a prepper, having a large, portable electricity supply that you can fill up yourself without a grid, should be near the top of our lists.
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dadbod
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Post by dadbod on Jul 10, 2022 9:21:44 GMT 10
regardless of what you want a vehicle to do, you will still have to face the economics of the situation. with less ICE vehicles, fuel consumption will decrease and prices will increase. that macro picture doesnt end there. Its not just for fuel, but parts, and services. it will also devalue your asset as the second hand market will drastically change. Service stations will close/transition to hydrogen.
the assumptions that ICE doenst have unpaid for externalities in the equation is always over looked. yes we burn coal to create energy, but we have to start somewhere. electric is clearly the way of the future, nobody is saying its perfect, but atleast we are not ignoring the externalities of electric vehicles like we do with ICE vehicles.
what worries me is that disruption requires careful consideration in planning to avoid a collapse. we dont want to end up with broken supply chains and abandoned vehicles on the side of roads because its not worth owning them.
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malewithatail
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Post by malewithatail on Jul 10, 2022 9:33:34 GMT 10
"As a prepper, having a large, portable electricity supply that you can fill up yourself without a grid, should be near the top of our lists."
Such an item will only make you a target for the unprepared masses, especially if you are in a city and are trying to bug out.
A large, independent, electric supply at your bug out location, secured, will be safer and more sensible. And you should already be in your bug out location, as the strife and shortages will only get worse in the coming weeks. You should be definitely settled by winter at the latest, as electric shortages, food riots, and fuel supply chaos will be coming to us down under.
Even though we have some fuels stored, the only use for it will be battery charging in a prolonged bad spell, (using our fully sound proofed 12 kva generator), and tractor use for planting crops for use and barter. Even then, I'm worried the noise will attract undesirable attention from the unprepared hordes, and we are 55 km from any largish town of more than 100 people.
Being independent of the grid, and therefore responsible for you and your families well being, is very uplifting and stress relieving in that one variable of the collapse is secured.
It's not a person, dam it ! It's a Borg !!!
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