Tim Horton
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Post by Tim Horton on Aug 2, 2022 10:03:20 GMT 10
The energy density available in batteries is increasing at a record rate. There's no reason at all not to expect that it won't match, then exceed that of petroleum in the near future. That exact kind of argument was used by those who wanted to stick with the horse and plow, mocking the new machinery that was becoming available --- --- Yes... Admittedly batteries, the system to use that energy has evolved a lot since it started to be pushed...
However.... To compare ..this is how we did it with a horse... is an apples and oranges comparison in my view... --- --- There's no reason at all not to expect that it won't match, then exceed that of petroleum in the near future. --- --- Near future.... Maybe... But at what cost ?? And not likely as soon as many think..... How much mining and processing does it take to make a battery in use today ?? What will it take to produce a successful truck, or machinery battery ?? There is a whole lot more to do and learn about this "wonder" technology..
"History reats" .... Yes.. But the first few steps of the journey are usually a lot longer strides than the last steps...
My 5 cents of opinion....
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bug
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Post by bug on Aug 2, 2022 10:08:38 GMT 10
"How much mining and processing does it take to make a battery in use today ?"
I love this one. There's apparantly no issue with it for someone's pc, mobile phone, 12V car battery, kids toys etc, but at the suggestion that people stop using ICE, it becomes an issue...
The fossil fuel industry, oil in particular, has done more damage to both the environment and people's health than battery manufacture could ever hope to do.
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malewithatail
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Post by malewithatail on Aug 2, 2022 11:52:25 GMT 10
Its to do with energy density as well, the grid cant supply enough energy as quickly as a petrol pump can. The bowser can pump 12 MW, that's 12,000,000 watts of energy per hour, a car charger isn't even in the same league as that, with maybe a rating of 10 Kw, or 10,000 watts per hour. Liquid fuels have huge energy content. The physics of power or energy movement will kill electric every time, unless you use huge rated cables, transformers etc, it just cant compete with liquid fuel, or even lp gas. We may need some new physics, superconductors etc to compete with conventional fuels. Time to drill my own oil well me thinks !!!
The best defense is to stay out of range.
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bug
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Post by bug on Aug 2, 2022 12:08:11 GMT 10
That's true but not the full picture. Electricity supply is practically everywhere except for national parks and deserts. The same is not true at all for petrol. Whilst a pure MW value at refuelling is unlikely to be matched in the near future, it's not necessary. If a battery can power a vehicle for 5 hours and charge in 30 minutes, then it is totally compliant for our current transport regulations, with room to spare. That technology is practically here. The other big one people miss is the avoidance of needing multiple fuel storage. Eg: diesel + lpg + 98 + 87 etc. A very expensive to build petrol station can be replaced by a bank of chargers placed at much more regular intervals. You could put them at every truck stop, rather than concentrated at petrol stations. On the "grid can't handle it" fallacy that many claim to believe, it just is not true at all. AEMO's view is that EVs are good for the grid, not a hindrence. Whilst there are likely to be some remote locations where there's a hard kW limit for charging, this is fixable by placing an onsite battery next to the charger. So, again, there's no real issue.
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Post by ausprep130 on Aug 2, 2022 12:19:03 GMT 10
I hear people raise problems and think that that is a barrier to the use of renewables. thats fine to plant your feet in the mud, but others will see your problems and work out solutions, and by doing so be very successful. the solutions wont be putting an electric motor where every ICE is, or a battery for every fuel tank. it is in redesigning the work to be able to use our new and better tools. its foolish to think that we wont abandon this old polluting technology when the better alternative arrives. we didnt stop at the horse and cart, why would we stop at the ICE car? It's true that some people will see problems as a challenge to overcome, and some people will overcome these problems with outstanding innovation and technology. The trouble is, the powers that be won't do the best thing, they will do the thing that gives them the most control and makes the most profit, even if that is to the detriment of humanity.
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dadbod
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Post by dadbod on Aug 3, 2022 7:08:50 GMT 10
again people are just listing problems for entrepreneurial people to solve. i dont see any of this as a reason to not go fully renewable. complaining that this is suburbanites leading the rest is naive. the economics of it all will soon flip, and even if you have money and the will to stay with fossil fuels, the companies transporting, refining, drilling, and retailing will have to change. supply will change. a service station will no longer be a viable business model.
the gov will be led by business as with everything. i think businesses are heading in the right direction and will get there eventually.
large machinery may be run off hydrogen where needed, but mostly electric. again, smarter people than me will solve these issues.
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bug
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Post by bug on Aug 3, 2022 20:36:53 GMT 10
The economics of renewables have already flipped. There is an incredible amount of investment in renewables. So much that we aren't even close to being able to build it all. Meanwhile nobody at all wants to build coal power besides a few deluded politicians and their followers. Tellingly, many people will put their own money behind renewables. Those who want more coal always want someone else's money to be used.
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rastus
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Post by rastus on Aug 4, 2022 17:11:32 GMT 10
Interesting, considering that multiple Western governments are on the brink of collapse due to offlining fossil fuel fuel energy before replacing it with renewables, which is exactly what we are also planning here in Oz.
Don't get me wrong, renewables are great. But radical ideology isn't. And the entire renewables sector is stacked floor to ceiling with radical ideologues who haven't done the math, and don't intend to.
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Beno
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Post by Beno on Aug 4, 2022 18:05:00 GMT 10
The only maths i’m interested in is counting, counting population. Soon to be 9 billion souls on this planet. All the other issues are just a side salad compared to this single issue.
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frostbite
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Post by frostbite on Aug 4, 2022 19:07:52 GMT 10
All the more reason to own a plot of land capable of sustaining your family.
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dadbod
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Post by dadbod on Aug 5, 2022 11:29:10 GMT 10
It just wont work that way, and it never has. technology doesnt just sit on a shelf until at scale for a peaceful transition; it disrupts and destroys. every systems revolution does exactly the same. This is the path we are on, and a path you can prepare for.
I am sure there were a lot of people worried about henry fords new machine and dismissed its capabilities and use in the world. think of how that technology change the world, all the industry and growth we have had since then. We will see that again.
I dont know why you're worried about left leaning green ideologues but not about the saudis and oligarchs controlling the fuel supply. id say lesser evil, but either way there is going to be someone in control.
we are damaging the planet and our own health by using ICE. even if the damage was 1/10th of what people say it is, we should look to alternatives that will make the world healthier and better for our children.
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bug
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Post by bug on Aug 6, 2022 12:32:55 GMT 10
Interesting, considering that multiple Western governments are on the brink of collapse due to offlining fossil fuel fuel energy before replacing it with renewables, which is exactly what we are also planning here in Oz. Don't get me wrong, renewables are great. But radical ideology isn't. And the entire renewables sector is stacked floor to ceiling with radical ideologues who haven't done the math, and don't intend to. Yep. Australia has learnt from that though. Here, the only real limiting factor for renewables is the transmission network. AEMO is embarking on the biggest transmission line build since the 1960-1980s period. Every single one of those lines has a queue of renewables companies fighting for access to it, to build ever larger generator projects.
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bug
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Post by bug on Aug 6, 2022 12:35:31 GMT 10
It just wont work that way, and it never has. technology doesnt just sit on a shelf until at scale for a peaceful transition; it disrupts and destroys. every systems revolution does exactly the same. This is the path we are on, and a path you can prepare for. I am sure there were a lot of people worried about henry fords new machine and dismissed its capabilities and use in the world. think of how that technology change the world, all the industry and growth we have had since then. We will see that again. I dont know why you're worried about left leaning green ideologues but not about the saudis and oligarchs controlling the fuel supply. id say lesser evil, but either way there is going to be someone in control. we are damaging the planet and our own health by using ICE. even if the damage was 1/10th of what people say it is, we should look to alternatives that will make the world healthier and better for our children. agreed. Climate change is irrelevant. We need to get rid of ICE because it is killing people through cancer and other respiratory problems. It leaves us dependant on a long, vulnerable, largely foreign owned oil supply chain. It is not possible to go 'off grid' as long as you have ICE items that you depend on.
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