The third world as an analog for Collapse
Jan 3, 2023 15:31:49 GMT 10
frostbite, blueshoes, and 6 more like this
Post by bce1 on Jan 3, 2023 15:31:49 GMT 10
I thought it would be interesting to talk about what the third world tells us about collapse. Ive just spent 6 weeks in and out of Somalia on the Kenyan border doing some first aid training with an NGO. It is very much a divided society - the haves and the have nots - there are a lot more of the have nots than the haves. Neither country has collapsed - Somalia more so than Kenya and both have functioning supply chains to a degree. In both countries there were ‘western’ supermarkets where you could by quality food for pretty much the same price you would pay in Australia and NZ, but unlike Australia or NZ, you stood in the check-out line with US military SOF staff in civilian clothes fighting Al Shabbat and Russian mercenaries working for the local warlord! I also appreciate that working as a westerner in this environment does give you an artificial view to a degree - but I thought it was interesting, What I saw doesn’t fit with a madmax sudden collapse picture but I think it shows us what could be in our future with a slow slide collapse. Hence why I think its an appropriate thread. All opinions are my own and I’m not trying to insult anyone.
Firearms.
The Kenyan government has some of the strictest firearm rules on the planet with the some draconian penalties. Even to possess a firearm, because you are escorting tourists on wildlife safaris involves a lot of paper work and ‘processing payments’ (read bribes). Yet they are still everywhere. The border with Somalia is very porous and AK47’s and their variants cross with impunity. They are everywhere. The Kenyan government appears to decided the states starting with Lomu on the coast, which follow the Somali boarders are essentially unpolicable and essentially under martial law and part of this problem is from the huge numbers of firearms.
Foreign forces.
US and British forces were everywhere and the US in particular were in civilian clothing. There is an unofficial war going on between the Kenyan government and the UK / US against Al Shabbat . Britain maintains a ‘training base’ and slightly further to the south uniformed British military personal were a very common sight around Nanyuki. The US were more obscure and you would see them at a check point mixed in with the paramilitaries - there would be a sudden loud American accent appear out of no where. To be fair one guy intervened very helpfully when we were getting into a heated argument with a Kenyan solider over our paperwork, I have never been to grateful to see a huge hairy American.
Police / Army
There was the police, and then there was the paramilitary police - im not sure what the formal distinction was, but practically there was a clear distinction. The police were armed but friendly, their check-points were predominately focused on collecting road tax on larger vehicles it seemed. Ditto the army were generally pleasant and easy to interact with. The paramilitary police, blurred with the army special forces, they were decked out with more modern weapons and wearing balaclavas. Plus 511 clothing OMG the 511 clothing - hats, pants, boots - 511 must be making a killing out of African paramilitaries!!
They mostly ran check-points focused on checking your identity and making sure you were not moving firearms or explosives.
Warlords and gangsters.
Despite Somalia now being a ‘democracy’ its very clear that a small number of unelected people control the country. Basically in Somalia we were under the protection of a large family who essentially were in charge of the area we were in. There is conflict with the Islamist’s who are particularly upset with the Kenyan and Ethiopian security forces who have been doing peacekeeping supported by the US and British. Basically this family was in charge and if they were looking after you, you were very safe. They were muslims, but it was clear they were about family self interest and not wider community. Everyone we encountered in this context were really friendly and helpful, but when you listened to how they talked to other locals you realised there was a undercurrent of unpleasantness. I felt very safe the whole time I was there, although that may well have been a completely false sense of security. It was impossible to get travel insurance for where we were working, the NGO carried medical treatment and evacuation insurance and some kidnapping insurance but for usual travel insurance it was a no go.
Housing.
This again comes down to the haves and the have nots. The have nots are living in traditional huts essential sticks and mud with modern materials like sheet plastic and clothing incorporated into the structure. A local bush covered in very thick and sharp thorns was commonly used to form a perimeter fence around the living area - both for protection from wildlife and humans.
The wealthier had ‘compounds’ and used a layered security approach - it was interesting to see something talked about on 'prepper' forums and such, in real life. Most had a outer perimeter of a wall which was either solid or electrified with razor wire on top with extensive gardens within. You usually couldn't easily see what was over the fence There was often multiple family dwellings within an inner compound usually with a 8-10ft wall around them - often chain-link or a tall electricfied mutli-strand wire fence - with the electricity set to 'rhino' !!. The houses themselves were thick walled with shuttered or barred windows. Several had dedicated safe rooms while others had a part of the house that could be shut off with an inner security door and heavier outside protection. Obviously there was a spectrum, but broadly they followed that pattern. I stayed and visited a number of compounds and always felt very secure and safe - false sense maybe - but we sat by a pool or ate dinner on the patio and felt very normal.
Cooking and lighting.
The bulk of the area we were in was off grid. The bigger compounds had generators that ran for various periods of time. There was variable permanent power lines.
Solar has made huge in roads here, with small solar lights being the main source of lighting - even the poorest farmers seemed to have a couple of solar lights.
Batteries and formal solar setups were largely found with wealthier families.
There were a variety of solar hot water heaters, often just made from black plastic pipe, and these worked well given the ubiquitous presence of the sun.
Where we were the majority of the subsistence farmers where still using charcoal to cook on - which given the shortage of trees was amazingly short-sighted and shows the desperation. There were active campaigns to get people to switch to gas from homemade biodigestors or bottled LPG.
Cell networks.
Mobile technology has been embraced here and it is both cheap (for phones and data) and has amazing coverage - extensive 4G coverage literally in the middle of the desert. Kenya overlapping into Somalia also uses a cellular payment method called mpesa, which works like electronic transfers / eftpos except you use your phone to send money to someone else’s phone based on their number - it was reliable and widely accepted. What was sad to see it that western addiction was alive and well and people living a subsistence lifestyle were spending what limited money they had buying minutes and data.
Water.
At the bottom end you have subsistence farmers carrying water kilometres everyday to supply a families drinking and gardening needs. Most of the water containers appeared to be 15-20L old vegetable oil drums and young kids would be carrying two of these often 5+ kms. Having water storage tanks is sign of wealth to a degree and the wealthier families had several 10-20kl tanks - set up for rainwater collection. The wealthier also had wells - these are expensive and are often drilled to over a 100ms to hit the aquifer, but have been giving reliable water even in the drought.
Livestock.
Livestock are a sign of wealth, many of locals feel that the more you have the wealthier you are. Lots of stock have died in the recent drought. There seemed to be no concept that its easier to get fewer head of stock through a drought than a large herd and selling some off giving you money in the bank was a good idea - there was an overwhelming feeling distrust of banks and that you had to be in possession of your wealth. It also reinforced to me that goats are a very solid collapse animal - they tolerate heat and dust, they eat anything, they are good parents, they can be milked and used as a meat source. Camels also fulfil that role but in a western sense goats are clearly easier to source.
Food.
The meals I was served were amazing and not really a focus of this discussion as I was being treated as a guest of relatively wealthy families so my exposure wasnt overly reflective.. The local food seemed to be very similar to indian - with some slightly different flavours. Camel meat was delicious. Camel milk yogurt was also very nice. I had very limited contact with what the poorer people were eating, but maize in various forms seemed very common and meat pretty uncommon. They seemed to eat maize dishes 2-3 times a day.
Farming.
In the border region it is all subsistence farming. I paid quite a lot of attention to this and it was interesting to watch. Each plant was almost treated with reverence, they were individually weeded and watered daily. They were only given very small amounts of water, but seemed to be growing vigorously. I saw a number of plots surrounded by the spikey bushes, to protect them from local wildlife grazing on them. The soil looked very sandy but was surprisingly productive.
As said above there was lots and lots of maize growing, but also a type of spinach and tomato's.
Transport.
There are a relatively small number of private motor vehicles. Motorbikes and matatus' deliver most of the public transport. Motorbikes operate on a sort of Uber type system - they will transport you, or your things and will go and purchase things for you and drop them to your home. Matatus are essentially mini-vans which operate like a bus network - different ones follow different routes and you wait at stops for one going the right way to come along. These are always filled to overflowing and our fixer said they weren't safe for white faces to travel on, even with him with us. The cost of hiring a 4WD - like a DMax or Landcruiser was dirt cheap for a foreigner anyway.
Mechanics / Tradesmen
There mechanics were amazing. They could fix just about anything. Many a decrepit motorcycle or an old Toyota were kept running by these guys using a mix of second hand and homemade parts. They were also pretty impressive at repairing tyres - fixing defects and re-inflating with compressor. Tools were precious and were looked after and protected. They could jury-rig almost anything. Equally builders and woodworkers were crafting amazing furniture and had some amazing / bizarre building techniques !! Electricians did some seriously dodgy wiring and exposed wires was the norm - no OSH here !!
I went to a hardware at one point and it was exactly like australian hardwares in the 70's - a small front of house area - with a few things on display, but a long counter you went up to and said what you wanted and a guy went down these long shelves returning with your requests.
Health care.
There is clinics and pharmacies everywhere - many are shacks on the side of the road and are of variable quality. I was there teaching trauma care to local staff and generally in both Kenya and Somalia there was basic health care and drugs.
The medications were a mix of Chinese, Indian and western manufactured meds, most were sealed with a safety seal and wrapped and the local medics didn’t think there were major problems with forgeries for the basic drugs. The very basic drugs were cheap, but the price went up very rapidly for anything beyond something simple like a common antibiotic. IV drugs were rare and strong painkillers like morphine and ketamine were there, but harder to source. They said it was a much bigger problem of forgery for the high level drugs for HIV or cancer treatment.
There were basic blood tests widely available, and the larger towns had things like CT scanners and MRIs - but these were only available privately. There were also numerous private medical clinics and most of the richer locals and ex-pats used these.
There was no ambulance service as such, but there were several private subscription ambulance or rescue services with remarkably good coverage - but only if you paid.
Sex.
Sad, but worthy of a mention. Sex is everywhere. Despite political messaging of “purity” and “chasity”. In a subsistence society selling sex is a way to survive. HIV is very prevalent in the sex work population. I was offered ‘company’ multiple times for ridiculously cheap rates - without being to explicit - pretty much anything you want for <$5USD. The more you say no, the more the ‘pimps’ offer you increasing levels of depravity in terms of younger and younger ages and both the opposite and same sexes. It is very uncomfortable especially if it is one of your hosts house staff doing the offering and appearing to take offence when you decline. But I think it says worrying things about the position of woman in a post-collapsed society - if you weren’t protected by family you were at risk. It also explains (although in hindsight its blindingly obvious) why some societies insist on woman being accompanied by a male relative - it may be misogynistic in a modern western sense, but why it evolved historically is clear. There is no real apparent diversity either, the sexes are binary and the western concepts of non-binary were considered humorous or anger inducing by the locals. There was a distinct difference in the attitudes between Kenyan and Somali men towards woman - the Somali attitude was one of ownership and power / dominance , but Kenyan was much more respect and a degree of reverence - but for context my interactions were only on the southern border of Somalia and may be different in the wider country.
Shopping / trading.
There wasn’t much barter. The Kenyan shilling is the currency in kenya and was accepted in southern Somalia as well as the Somali shilling. USD were preferred by anyone except the poorest people who had no way to exchange it to local currency. Everything I wanted I could get from a purchasing perspective from western supermarkets or shops - these were often tucked away and hard to find and had significant security - but it was common to find a western supermarket, a health clinic and bank with an ATM tucked away within a small compound in the middle of a local market. I witnessed some barter between locals over food - trading one type of fruit or vegetables for another, but I didn’t see it for anything big.
Kenya vs. Somalia
Broadly northern Kenyan and Southern Somalia were the same. The border is fluid and people just crossed over. There were areas of a much more formal border with land mines and barbwire.
Weather.
Climate change is going to decimate this part of the world - its already started. The wider East African area had experienced 3 years of drought which has just broken. This has resulted in the deaths of a lot of animals and we heard stories of newborns being deliberately killed or starving simply due to lack of breast milk because mum was starving. The elephants have further demolished the vegetation which was left, taking any greenery which was left, but also ripping apart trees to get into the softer inner tissues.
There used to be two very clear wet periods, but over the last 5 years it has become increasingly unreliable and the locals describe it as one continuous ‘dry’ with occasional rain storms - and the very clear wet / dry cycle has been lost.
So what was the point of writing all of this. Well for those with limited experience of the third world it might be interesting, but from a collapse perspective I thought it demonstrated where western society may be headed towards. There is much discission about slow and fast collapse, and i thought it might give some insight into how things may evolve / devolve over the next 5-10-20 years in some western countries.
Firearms.
The Kenyan government has some of the strictest firearm rules on the planet with the some draconian penalties. Even to possess a firearm, because you are escorting tourists on wildlife safaris involves a lot of paper work and ‘processing payments’ (read bribes). Yet they are still everywhere. The border with Somalia is very porous and AK47’s and their variants cross with impunity. They are everywhere. The Kenyan government appears to decided the states starting with Lomu on the coast, which follow the Somali boarders are essentially unpolicable and essentially under martial law and part of this problem is from the huge numbers of firearms.
Foreign forces.
US and British forces were everywhere and the US in particular were in civilian clothing. There is an unofficial war going on between the Kenyan government and the UK / US against Al Shabbat . Britain maintains a ‘training base’ and slightly further to the south uniformed British military personal were a very common sight around Nanyuki. The US were more obscure and you would see them at a check point mixed in with the paramilitaries - there would be a sudden loud American accent appear out of no where. To be fair one guy intervened very helpfully when we were getting into a heated argument with a Kenyan solider over our paperwork, I have never been to grateful to see a huge hairy American.
Police / Army
There was the police, and then there was the paramilitary police - im not sure what the formal distinction was, but practically there was a clear distinction. The police were armed but friendly, their check-points were predominately focused on collecting road tax on larger vehicles it seemed. Ditto the army were generally pleasant and easy to interact with. The paramilitary police, blurred with the army special forces, they were decked out with more modern weapons and wearing balaclavas. Plus 511 clothing OMG the 511 clothing - hats, pants, boots - 511 must be making a killing out of African paramilitaries!!
They mostly ran check-points focused on checking your identity and making sure you were not moving firearms or explosives.
Warlords and gangsters.
Despite Somalia now being a ‘democracy’ its very clear that a small number of unelected people control the country. Basically in Somalia we were under the protection of a large family who essentially were in charge of the area we were in. There is conflict with the Islamist’s who are particularly upset with the Kenyan and Ethiopian security forces who have been doing peacekeeping supported by the US and British. Basically this family was in charge and if they were looking after you, you were very safe. They were muslims, but it was clear they were about family self interest and not wider community. Everyone we encountered in this context were really friendly and helpful, but when you listened to how they talked to other locals you realised there was a undercurrent of unpleasantness. I felt very safe the whole time I was there, although that may well have been a completely false sense of security. It was impossible to get travel insurance for where we were working, the NGO carried medical treatment and evacuation insurance and some kidnapping insurance but for usual travel insurance it was a no go.
Housing.
This again comes down to the haves and the have nots. The have nots are living in traditional huts essential sticks and mud with modern materials like sheet plastic and clothing incorporated into the structure. A local bush covered in very thick and sharp thorns was commonly used to form a perimeter fence around the living area - both for protection from wildlife and humans.
The wealthier had ‘compounds’ and used a layered security approach - it was interesting to see something talked about on 'prepper' forums and such, in real life. Most had a outer perimeter of a wall which was either solid or electrified with razor wire on top with extensive gardens within. You usually couldn't easily see what was over the fence There was often multiple family dwellings within an inner compound usually with a 8-10ft wall around them - often chain-link or a tall electricfied mutli-strand wire fence - with the electricity set to 'rhino' !!. The houses themselves were thick walled with shuttered or barred windows. Several had dedicated safe rooms while others had a part of the house that could be shut off with an inner security door and heavier outside protection. Obviously there was a spectrum, but broadly they followed that pattern. I stayed and visited a number of compounds and always felt very secure and safe - false sense maybe - but we sat by a pool or ate dinner on the patio and felt very normal.
Cooking and lighting.
The bulk of the area we were in was off grid. The bigger compounds had generators that ran for various periods of time. There was variable permanent power lines.
Solar has made huge in roads here, with small solar lights being the main source of lighting - even the poorest farmers seemed to have a couple of solar lights.
Batteries and formal solar setups were largely found with wealthier families.
There were a variety of solar hot water heaters, often just made from black plastic pipe, and these worked well given the ubiquitous presence of the sun.
Where we were the majority of the subsistence farmers where still using charcoal to cook on - which given the shortage of trees was amazingly short-sighted and shows the desperation. There were active campaigns to get people to switch to gas from homemade biodigestors or bottled LPG.
Cell networks.
Mobile technology has been embraced here and it is both cheap (for phones and data) and has amazing coverage - extensive 4G coverage literally in the middle of the desert. Kenya overlapping into Somalia also uses a cellular payment method called mpesa, which works like electronic transfers / eftpos except you use your phone to send money to someone else’s phone based on their number - it was reliable and widely accepted. What was sad to see it that western addiction was alive and well and people living a subsistence lifestyle were spending what limited money they had buying minutes and data.
Water.
At the bottom end you have subsistence farmers carrying water kilometres everyday to supply a families drinking and gardening needs. Most of the water containers appeared to be 15-20L old vegetable oil drums and young kids would be carrying two of these often 5+ kms. Having water storage tanks is sign of wealth to a degree and the wealthier families had several 10-20kl tanks - set up for rainwater collection. The wealthier also had wells - these are expensive and are often drilled to over a 100ms to hit the aquifer, but have been giving reliable water even in the drought.
Livestock.
Livestock are a sign of wealth, many of locals feel that the more you have the wealthier you are. Lots of stock have died in the recent drought. There seemed to be no concept that its easier to get fewer head of stock through a drought than a large herd and selling some off giving you money in the bank was a good idea - there was an overwhelming feeling distrust of banks and that you had to be in possession of your wealth. It also reinforced to me that goats are a very solid collapse animal - they tolerate heat and dust, they eat anything, they are good parents, they can be milked and used as a meat source. Camels also fulfil that role but in a western sense goats are clearly easier to source.
Food.
The meals I was served were amazing and not really a focus of this discussion as I was being treated as a guest of relatively wealthy families so my exposure wasnt overly reflective.. The local food seemed to be very similar to indian - with some slightly different flavours. Camel meat was delicious. Camel milk yogurt was also very nice. I had very limited contact with what the poorer people were eating, but maize in various forms seemed very common and meat pretty uncommon. They seemed to eat maize dishes 2-3 times a day.
Farming.
In the border region it is all subsistence farming. I paid quite a lot of attention to this and it was interesting to watch. Each plant was almost treated with reverence, they were individually weeded and watered daily. They were only given very small amounts of water, but seemed to be growing vigorously. I saw a number of plots surrounded by the spikey bushes, to protect them from local wildlife grazing on them. The soil looked very sandy but was surprisingly productive.
As said above there was lots and lots of maize growing, but also a type of spinach and tomato's.
Transport.
There are a relatively small number of private motor vehicles. Motorbikes and matatus' deliver most of the public transport. Motorbikes operate on a sort of Uber type system - they will transport you, or your things and will go and purchase things for you and drop them to your home. Matatus are essentially mini-vans which operate like a bus network - different ones follow different routes and you wait at stops for one going the right way to come along. These are always filled to overflowing and our fixer said they weren't safe for white faces to travel on, even with him with us. The cost of hiring a 4WD - like a DMax or Landcruiser was dirt cheap for a foreigner anyway.
Mechanics / Tradesmen
There mechanics were amazing. They could fix just about anything. Many a decrepit motorcycle or an old Toyota were kept running by these guys using a mix of second hand and homemade parts. They were also pretty impressive at repairing tyres - fixing defects and re-inflating with compressor. Tools were precious and were looked after and protected. They could jury-rig almost anything. Equally builders and woodworkers were crafting amazing furniture and had some amazing / bizarre building techniques !! Electricians did some seriously dodgy wiring and exposed wires was the norm - no OSH here !!
I went to a hardware at one point and it was exactly like australian hardwares in the 70's - a small front of house area - with a few things on display, but a long counter you went up to and said what you wanted and a guy went down these long shelves returning with your requests.
Health care.
There is clinics and pharmacies everywhere - many are shacks on the side of the road and are of variable quality. I was there teaching trauma care to local staff and generally in both Kenya and Somalia there was basic health care and drugs.
The medications were a mix of Chinese, Indian and western manufactured meds, most were sealed with a safety seal and wrapped and the local medics didn’t think there were major problems with forgeries for the basic drugs. The very basic drugs were cheap, but the price went up very rapidly for anything beyond something simple like a common antibiotic. IV drugs were rare and strong painkillers like morphine and ketamine were there, but harder to source. They said it was a much bigger problem of forgery for the high level drugs for HIV or cancer treatment.
There were basic blood tests widely available, and the larger towns had things like CT scanners and MRIs - but these were only available privately. There were also numerous private medical clinics and most of the richer locals and ex-pats used these.
There was no ambulance service as such, but there were several private subscription ambulance or rescue services with remarkably good coverage - but only if you paid.
Sex.
Sad, but worthy of a mention. Sex is everywhere. Despite political messaging of “purity” and “chasity”. In a subsistence society selling sex is a way to survive. HIV is very prevalent in the sex work population. I was offered ‘company’ multiple times for ridiculously cheap rates - without being to explicit - pretty much anything you want for <$5USD. The more you say no, the more the ‘pimps’ offer you increasing levels of depravity in terms of younger and younger ages and both the opposite and same sexes. It is very uncomfortable especially if it is one of your hosts house staff doing the offering and appearing to take offence when you decline. But I think it says worrying things about the position of woman in a post-collapsed society - if you weren’t protected by family you were at risk. It also explains (although in hindsight its blindingly obvious) why some societies insist on woman being accompanied by a male relative - it may be misogynistic in a modern western sense, but why it evolved historically is clear. There is no real apparent diversity either, the sexes are binary and the western concepts of non-binary were considered humorous or anger inducing by the locals. There was a distinct difference in the attitudes between Kenyan and Somali men towards woman - the Somali attitude was one of ownership and power / dominance , but Kenyan was much more respect and a degree of reverence - but for context my interactions were only on the southern border of Somalia and may be different in the wider country.
Shopping / trading.
There wasn’t much barter. The Kenyan shilling is the currency in kenya and was accepted in southern Somalia as well as the Somali shilling. USD were preferred by anyone except the poorest people who had no way to exchange it to local currency. Everything I wanted I could get from a purchasing perspective from western supermarkets or shops - these were often tucked away and hard to find and had significant security - but it was common to find a western supermarket, a health clinic and bank with an ATM tucked away within a small compound in the middle of a local market. I witnessed some barter between locals over food - trading one type of fruit or vegetables for another, but I didn’t see it for anything big.
Kenya vs. Somalia
Broadly northern Kenyan and Southern Somalia were the same. The border is fluid and people just crossed over. There were areas of a much more formal border with land mines and barbwire.
Weather.
Climate change is going to decimate this part of the world - its already started. The wider East African area had experienced 3 years of drought which has just broken. This has resulted in the deaths of a lot of animals and we heard stories of newborns being deliberately killed or starving simply due to lack of breast milk because mum was starving. The elephants have further demolished the vegetation which was left, taking any greenery which was left, but also ripping apart trees to get into the softer inner tissues.
There used to be two very clear wet periods, but over the last 5 years it has become increasingly unreliable and the locals describe it as one continuous ‘dry’ with occasional rain storms - and the very clear wet / dry cycle has been lost.
So what was the point of writing all of this. Well for those with limited experience of the third world it might be interesting, but from a collapse perspective I thought it demonstrated where western society may be headed towards. There is much discission about slow and fast collapse, and i thought it might give some insight into how things may evolve / devolve over the next 5-10-20 years in some western countries.
