To stay or to go?

I've been thinking about this a lot.

I think it's different depending on your preps. I feel that my current level of preparation to bug in is less than desirable and I don't want to not be able to bug out if I stay for a little bit.

When I hopefully get this house, it's a nice big brick job, has a decent garage and under house basement, plenty of land to grow things, I would be more confident to bug in if I boarded up the windows.

At the moment I'm in a wooden unit, only 30kg of rice to my name plus equipment to survive outside so it's natural I'd take the rice and get out of dodge.

I am watching very closely for the tipping point between staying or going but I think my needle is much closer to the "go" end of the gauge at the moment.

Just need to assess your situation.

Agreed. I think it entirely depends on how comfortable you feel in your own home. I know as well that I don't have a solid foundation in suburbia, and I feel that I would have a greater chance of survival if I was to bug out.

That's great to hear, Alex. I kind of wish I lived out in the sticks, but I do love the city life. Does make it hard to prepare exit routes though.

Spot on Jase. The key to successfully getting out though will be timing.

Imho it largely depends on location, where i am now? I think i would bug in, simply because my town is not a priority for anyone, whether to defend, nor attack. The biggest threat for me is the locals if some of them think to go looting, but my house looks almost abandoned most of the time, so i have no doubts that with the windows boarded up, they would be dumb to bother, especially if on the boards i made sure to make some sort of quarantine warning plus the dog is a pretty good warning system for if anyone is sniffing around hopefully in the next few years i will have my ideal hermit/bug in house anyhow XD

Thats about it hey, btw, nothing saying ill be in the house i start in for long if im still in town XD lots of houses, can move from one to another every few days to be harder to find XD btw the sooner you come bush the better!

The very thought of living in a town (or God forbid a city) these days turns my stomach, even visiting for a day it a chore, but I'm an old fart now, I thought differently for many years I admit.

If I still lived in the burbs bugging out would be my preference. However these days I already live at my BOL so I would just stay here, that said I still have BO plans just in case but really, if it gets so bad I have to leave here I don't know where I would go. Probably up into the tropics to live off mud crabs on the Adelaide River or somewhere.

Bugging out?

I've spent a LONG time listening to people who have been in WROL type situations. For me, it's so much better to be getting info from those who have lived it. I've also listened to people who have been in the military, some ex-special forces, attempting to understand what 'might' be. They've seen what war does to a population, what a lack of resources does first hand. The lessons from Leningrad a city starved, the great depression and so on. History is a good teacher for the future.

From the advice and actual examples, I have an idea of what actually be. [names at the end are youtube channels]
1. Survival can be about luck. - Hiberniason
2. Groups do better - Almost everyone, very much historically
3. Doors can and will be kicked in, rammed and picked in seconds. Thus extending your sphere of influence is the only way you can avoid a fire-fight on your doorstep. Setting up defensive perimeters, patrols, observation posts is essential in buying time - Hiberniason, Southernprepper1, Mainprepper, themiamiprepper [all military guys]
5. Houses can and would be lit on fire - Almost everyone
6. Bugging out is a death sentence, unless the place you are going is well stocked - Hiberniason
7. Security is the extremely important. - Hiberniason, Mainprepper, Southerprepper1
8. Avoid fire-fights at all costs - everyone
9. Getting around in WROL/partial WROL would be highly dangerous if basic needs [food/water] are not being met around you.  Crime would be rampant initially and people would come together to a point [Argentina for instance] when partial law fails.  Cuba which had law and order but problems with food [and everything] had large crime problems but also had much of the population working together, everyone grew food.
10. People will eat anything and do anything for food - Leningrad/Bosnia, hinted at by almost everyone
11. The golden hordes of hungry people sweeping out of the cities only really happens in books. Historically there's not really examples of it happening other than getting away from fire-fights or being the victims of persecution/murder.  To an extent it makes logical sense that people would leave cities if there's no food available there.  Considering the lack of storage for food these days it may well become a reality, it's just that history doesn't show this to be.

Bugging in or out?
It's a complex question. In simple terms it depends on the situation
- if it were sudden, in a matter of hours, or instant,
I'm locking up and settling in. I have no need to go outside for 50 days [then I need water] and I want to get this to 90 days.  There's a huge amount of water around me, so collecting will never be an issue.  Food's not an issue even slightly in the shorter term.  Boring but there's plenty there.  The place isn't fantastic for security but it's set up and away from major populations and with a few modifications that can be done in an hour or two, the security will be substantially better.  Fire is a risk as is observation and intel, running patrols would be challenging and whilst it's rural, it's also suburban, so slowing down entry is essential at the least.  I've not got extra 'official' preppers joining me, though the right people might have joked about me being right for the Zombie apocalypse [they know nothing about my food] and I told them they and them alone would be welcome.  Their skills and trustworthiness more than make up for hardships in reduced food and water. 

- there's still 'much' to do here, more things to learn, more items to acquire and more friends to get over the line in terms of preparations and bringing them into the inner circle, but it's sure in progress. 

Slower slide - a few days, weeks -
I relocate with the essentials.  The bug out location is poorly supplied but has far superior security options, lower numbers of people.  I fill the cars with every prep item I have, hit the back roads as soon as possible [within an hour or two] and I invite EVERYONE I trust and we form a secured location.  It might be much harsher for food, but security is far better.  This location is a much more ideal place to live and the longer term plan is indeed to own a place similar. 

Emergency -
If time allows, I grab the car/or BOB if possible, if it doesn't I get OUT anyway.  This is also our fire-plan.  I have a couple of suitable locations I can get to on foot, bike or car.  Its a very poor option but if it saves my life today, I might live long enough to live the next day and so on.

The way I see it is that bugging out is something I would do only if time allows and I can be assured of getting what I need most to where I want it most.  If things are crashing slowly.  The risks of being in the middle of crap are far worse than staying and bugging in. 

Greynomad: Water at 4ltrs/day. - not ideal for washing etc, but it's stored and on site. Something I want to take a bit further of course has been and still is a weakness in my preps. There's plenty of water all around and I have plenty of ways of storing, moving and purifying. Food's not an issue in comparison.

11. - It's a tricky thing, because traditionally wars weren't all invasive like they are now. So historically it's not quite the same circumstances. Cities in the past would and were wiped out certainly but typically people stayed and defended them, be it peasant or lord. In times of famine, where would you migrate to exactly? People of the land, on small farms were [and are] not better off. They are often targets for attack. The 'Homesteading' might not be better off, unless the resources of a least a small town are there. This has always been the case and still is through examples from South Africa, and Argentina [and probably elsewhere]. It's not like there's food stored elsewhere as traditionally much food has been stored in cities as it is now in warehouses.

We rely heavily on our transport system [backed with fuel] to make up for local famines or diseases in our crops and it works, provided we have that  fuel. If we don't and there's no way to resupply due to lack of fuel, I suppose one might leave the cities, but where do you go? To the farms that have the same issues?  Perhaps. 

The question that comes to mind and I suppose people would ask, 'where would I be better off'.  Some kind of trade will go on, people will want food more than things they have that they want to give up, so some will trade for those things.  So some food will exist.  If you leave the cities where are you going to be better off?  To become a refugee?  Most people don't move, they do their best with what they have.  The example in cuba during the special period was farms still worked even though fuel was almost non-existant.  Cities had food, just not much.  Food was grown everywhere!  People would move for 'work' [farms] not necessarily for food.

From real life examples there's this guy who went through the Argentine currency collapse,


The 'special period' for Cuba. Worth looking at.



Bosnia conflict - living surrounded in a warzone for a year
shtfschool.com/

Leningrad is also a good 'modern' historical example. Much of the focus on this is about the war, but there's plenty of info about hardships faced, about eating bulbs that were known to be poisonous because there was nothing else.

These are just from the top of my head. The more education I put into this the more it seems to make sense. Towns are defensible because of their numbers, and rely heavily on support from farming surrounding them. For me, my ideal situation is to either,

1. Be stealthy - if nobody knows I'm there, then there's not going to be any problem
2. Have a decent group, well organised. Basically a small village that could come together if things got bad.
3. Live in a gated community within a town, but away from major populations, aka rural town.
4. Small country village/town. Not many people to support but enough to protect if need be.

There's always a compromise, and as the first idea said, luck has a role to play.