spatial
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Post by spatial on Nov 10, 2018 6:13:36 GMT 10
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Nov 10, 2018 7:29:53 GMT 10
My son is looking to finally buy his first place. He has a substantial deposit and a high income. Falling prices are a good thing for him. I think house prices falling is a good thing as the number of people who own houses is falling. More and more houses taken up by investors. But that is the conundrum and the thing economist fear the most is deflation. House prices go up slowly but crash down very fast. If prices keep falling how long does you son wait to buy!! The more he waits the more prices fall and the more prices fall the more people put houses up for sale and the more desperate they get to sell their houses. Deflation cycle can be very scary.. Hence banks are making it more difficult to get loans and are putting up interest rates even without the central bank putting up rates. That is another two factors in the mix banks more cautious in lending and rates going up.... The US house price bubble unwinding is what caused the 2007/8 GFC (global financial crises). There is global property price unwinding in US/China/Canada - all over. It is only one of many bubbles unwinding as excessive gov spending and debt levels his the end of the road. |
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Post by spinifex on Nov 10, 2018 8:18:21 GMT 10
Question: Have there been many economies fall into a depressive cycle since the Great Depression?
Because there sure have been lots (including right now) that have destroyed their economies with inflation.
When deflation looks problematic for an economy look to reserve banks to panic and accidentally set off very high inflation.
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Nov 10, 2018 8:31:44 GMT 10
Question: Have there been many economies fall into a depressive cycle since the Great Depression? Because there sure have been lots (including right now) that have destroyed their economies with inflation. When deflation looks problematic for an economy look to reserve banks to panic and accidentally set off very high inflation. The only good example of deflation that I can think of is Japan - house prices took something like 60y to recover. There can be a deflation in housing prices but other goods like fuel, food electricity, cost of vehicles etc.. all rising. It is true that due to excessive debt inflation is the biggest problem we are currently facing. Many are now talking about stagflation - there is a global economic slowdown but inflation and prices are going up. |
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Post by spinifex on Nov 10, 2018 11:20:19 GMT 10
Japanese economy is an interesting case isn't it. Huge investment bubble followed by a bust that was put into slow motion by their reserve bank and government colluding to implement a lot of largely pointless public infrastructure projects. Here in South Oz we are seeing that same plan in action right now.
So if prices for everyday consumables and essentials have continued to rise in Japan ... that must mean that wages there have risen accordingly or debt has expanded accordingly because prices can only go as high as buyers can afford to pay.
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Nov 10, 2018 15:30:44 GMT 10
Japanese economy is an interesting case isn't it. Huge investment bubble followed by a bust that was put into slow motion by their reserve bank and government colluding to implement a lot of largely pointless public infrastructure projects. Here in South Oz we are seeing that same plan in action right now. So if prices for everyday consumables and essentials have continued to rise in Japan ... that must mean that wages there have risen accordingly or debt has expanded accordingly because prices can only go as high as buyers can afford to pay. It is happening in Australia now and the US, prices going up (goods, food, fuel, electricity) house prices dropping and wages stagnant, while interest rates are going up. The US has supposedly very high job growth but wages continue to be suppressed. Things are primed for a big disaster. Natural disasters are also increasing!!! There are so many natural disasters that they are only given very brief coverage in the news. |
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Nov 11, 2018 10:43:35 GMT 10
Chinese housing market is in the twilight zone and cracks are appearing, over 50 million empty apartments. The "Nightmare Scenario" For Beijing: 50 Million Chinese Apartments Are Empty
www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-10/nightmare-scenario-beijing-50-million-chinese-apartments-are-empty"What is troubling is that despite relatively stable home prices, the foundations behind the housing market are cracking. As the WSJ recently reported, in early December, a group of homeowners stormed the sales office of their Shanghai complex, "Central Washington", whose developer, Shanghai Zhaoping Real Estate Development, was advertising new apartments at a fraction of the prices of the ones sold earlier in the year. One apartment owner said the new prices suggested the value of the apartment she bought from the developer in March had dropped by about 17.5%.
“There are people who bought multiple homes who are now trying to sell one to pay off the mortgage on another,” said Ran Yunjie, a property agent. One of his clients bought an apartment last year for about $230,000. To find a buyer now, the client would have to drop the price by 60%, according to Ran.
Meanwhile, in a truly concerning demonstration of what will happen when the bubble finally bursts, last month we reported that angry homeowners who paid full price for units at the Xinzhou Mansion residential project in Shangrao attacked the Country Garden sales office in eastern Jiangxi province last week, after finding out it had offered discounts to new buyers of up to 30%." |
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Nov 11, 2018 11:56:47 GMT 10
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Post by spinifex on Nov 11, 2018 13:39:54 GMT 10
Yes. This happens because most people have NFI what happens in a catastrophic fire. Prior to 2005 I thought I knew a bit about fire and was involved in lots of bushfires. Then my place took a burn-over from what was at the time the the deadliest fire in Oz history (per unit time) and during the worst fire weather ever recorded. (record previously held by Canberra). I think Victoria fires a few years back have since surpassed these records. Then I learnt a whole lot more ...
go to 1.40 in the video
This video of Pinery is in similar country to what I live in - open farming country with not very much scrub and no forest. This dashcam footage from a CFS truck in that fire shows how even the 'professionals' can shit bricks and panic when the heat comes on at close range. The visibility here is very good while they are driving ... in 'our' fire the vision from your naked/goggled eyes was about the same as the garbled vision after the crew sets off their truck protection sprinklers. In a catastropic fire: Day will turn to night. visibility will be sub 5m, and if you don't have goggles you wont be able to keep your eyes open. Breathing will be very difficult outdoors without a mask. Wind may be 100km plus (was in 'our' fire). There will be no visible fire front approaching as the extreme smoke and ash blocks the light of the flames. A hailstorm of embers will suddenly arrive and everything in every direction WILL CATCH FIRE AT ONCE. We did not see a fire truck until a couple of hours after the burn-over.
The first cfs truck crews need more training. They panicked at a cruicial moment when the flames arrived resulting in the crash. The crew in second truck seems fortunate not to have their front windscreen caved in.
Would like to know what happened to the 4WD that shot past. They likely got a burn over as well since the fire was coming side on to the road they are on, not chasing them from behind. I assume they pulled up directly next to the truck on the leeward side.
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Post by milspec on Nov 11, 2018 15:21:30 GMT 10
Wow that dashcam is an eye opener!!
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Beno
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Post by Beno on Nov 11, 2018 15:25:04 GMT 10
I don’t get it spinifex. They Race towards the fire for no apparent reason then don’ t evacuate the area when the fire front is clearly visible. Then suffer a burn over that seems totaly unnecessary and avoidable. I’d never sign up with that crew. What am i missing here?
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norseman
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Post by norseman on Nov 11, 2018 15:44:09 GMT 10
I don’t get it spinifex. They Race towards the fire for no apparent reason then don’ t evacuate the area when the fire front is clearly visible. Then suffer a burn over that seems totaly unnecessary and avoidable. I’d never sign up with that crew. What am i missing here? So what you are seeing there is a bunch of wannabes meeting reality in a big way! Unfortunately a lot of our formally noble, community minded, worthy volunteer organisations are being handicapped by actions such as these! |
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Beno
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Post by Beno on Nov 11, 2018 16:16:51 GMT 10
That sums it up pretty well norseman😂
had that been in mallee i reckon they would have been lucky to survive even with the turkey basters spraying full tilt.
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Post by spinifex on Nov 11, 2018 18:28:57 GMT 10
I don’t get it spinifex. They Race towards the fire for no apparent reason then don’ t evacuate the area when the fire front is clearly visible. Then suffer a burn over that seems totaly unnecessary and avoidable. I’d never sign up with that crew. What am i missing here? I don't think you're missing a thing Beno. There was some poorly executed stuff happening. I wouldn't dis the crews for being in harms way ... they may well have been sent there by an incident controller with NFI of whats happening on ground in real time. That fire was in 80km winds from memory; and in tinder dry cereal crops, the fire moved very fast. It might have been best to slow the trucks to a walking pace, put up heat screens in the cab and slowly drive through the active front and into the blacked out area beyond. That would reduce the time of exposure to extreme heat. The main take home message of that video is unless you know what you're doing and are certain you will not panic under dangerous circumstances ... leave hours early. In some cases, before a fire even starts if the weather is forecast to be 'catastrophic'. (Message to folks in the Adelaide Hills: This means you!) |
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Post by spinifex on Nov 11, 2018 18:37:41 GMT 10
Holy sh!t ... I just listened to the chatter again at the end ... they had (quote at 3.30) "Two crew OUTSIDE the appliance. I don't know where they are'".
That should never happen and shows how dangerous panic is.
makes me think though ... maybe one should have some big zip-ties in the truck to restrain the idiots on board?
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Post by jonasparker on Nov 14, 2018 5:08:30 GMT 10
Thank the local California "tree-huggers" for the fires. Forest management (clearing brush, removing dead trees, etc.) is strictly verboten in the Democratic Peoples Socialist Republic of Californicate!
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grumble
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Post by grumble on Nov 14, 2018 15:22:42 GMT 10
Yes. This happens because most people have NFI what happens in a catastrophic fire. Prior to 2005 I thought I knew a bit about fire and was involved in lots of bushfires. Then my place took a burn-over from what was at the time the the deadliest fire in Oz history (per unit time) and during the worst fire weather ever recorded. (record previously held by Canberra). I think Victoria fires a few years back have since surpassed these records. Then I learnt a whole lot more ... go to 1.40 in the video This video of Pinery is in similar country to what I live in - open farming country with not very much scrub and no forest. This dashcam footage from a CFS truck in that fire shows how even the 'professionals' can shit bricks and panic when the heat comes on at close range. The visibility here is very good while they are driving ... in 'our' fire the vision from your naked/goggled eyes was about the same as the garbled vision after the crew sets off their truck protection sprinklers. In a catastropic fire: Day will turn to night. visibility will be sub 5m, and if you don't have goggles you wont be able to keep your eyes open. Breathing will be very difficult outdoors without a mask. Wind may be 100km plus (was in 'our' fire). There will be no visible fire front approaching as the extreme smoke and ash blocks the light of the flames. A hailstorm of embers will suddenly arrive and everything in every direction WILL CATCH FIRE AT ONCE. We did not see a fire truck until a couple of hours after the burn-over. The first cfs truck crews need more training. They panicked at a cruicial moment when the flames arrived resulting in the crash. The crew in second truck seems fortunate not to have their front windscreen caved in. Would like to know what happened to the 4WD that shot past. They likely got a burn over as well since the fire was coming side on to the road they are on, not chasing them from behind. I assume they pulled up directly next to the truck on the leeward side. I find the comments regarding this video completely shameful and gives a clear indication of peoples ignorance of high pressure events to a point they have no idea at what they are witnessing
the incident contained in the video actually shows some of the clearest swift life saving decisions made under a lot of stress
1st the wind at the time was swinging wildly so one minute the fire front was heading away then the next minute it would change direction so in the end what's clear in one moment is the fire front the next which is what directly lead to this situation arising on that day there were 5 burn over incidents and this was one of them
2nd the crew was traveling at high speeds under police escort to try and reach another crew that was cut off and had just gone through a burn over and all coms had been lost with the crew this was a common problem on the day communication was unreliable because the radios were not up to the task nor could they handle the volume of communication traffic given the amount of incidents that were taking place
3rdly the front tanker didn't reverse in blind panic what he did was show a high level of training and swift decision making that saved the lives of his crew The front tankers water system had suffered a complete failure so he had no burn over protection which meant him his crew and the police car that shot up the side to get under the other tankers water wall were all about to burn alive especially the guys on the rear of the truck manning the system The fact that there is such poor radio reception and a huge volume of radio traffic drowns out his desperate warning that he has no water and can't warn the other truck he needs to get close or burn
If you listen closely from the 2.43 mark you will clearly hear the other truck calling mayday mayday mayday mt torens has no water mayday mayday mayday mt torens has no water mayday mayday you will also notice that immediately after the initial impact the front truck moves away incase it burns so as not to put the other truck at risk from vehicle fire
its easy to judge but what would you do if your life preservation system had failed and you had your crews lives in your hands sit in the open and burn or try and get them under the other trucks sprinklers?
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Nov 14, 2018 17:58:27 GMT 10
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Post by Joey on Nov 14, 2018 18:56:35 GMT 10
Thanks Grumble for filling us in on the details of the incident.
During my time in the Qld rurals, at least once a month we practiced burn over drills.
Though when I was there the only thing we had were thick fire blankets to pull over ourselves in the cab of the utes and medium appliance.
Although just before I left there was a big realization to the seriousness of burn overs so the QFRS started to retrofit all rural and auxiliary appliances with proper heat shielding for the cabs that rolls up above the windows and you just pull down when needed.
We were also experimenting with a roof mounted area spray system to wet down the cabs as well (like seen in the video) only ours, you would still have to get outside the ute/truck and start the pump and switch over the valves. The video system seems to be all done from inside the cab.
The fire in he video was moving really fast and was flashed over the appliances in a matter of seconds, so getting out of the cab to start pumps, throw away the drip torches and jerry cans on the back would mean certain death.
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Nov 14, 2018 21:11:53 GMT 10
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