sentinel
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Post by sentinel on Jul 2, 2014 13:59:22 GMT 10
Nice posts, sentinel! Good to hear that there are those who are really monitoring the situation closely. A lot of the people around me think I am paranoid to be worrying about it. Just on the 3 points: 1) I would assume that the alliance with North Korea would be more for the sake of convenience. China still classifies NoKor as a rogue child that they have no control over 2) It isn't in the Chinese culture to be suicide bombers unlike the Japanese during WW2 or have the promise of a lot of virgins like in Islam's Jihad. In the old days, they would fight and die for their Emperor but nowadays, they only have the Party as their leader and the party does not have that dedicated a following. This is why they PR Strategy of China to its people is that it is "Culturally Ours", "Ancient Maps", etc. which is now their means of getting the people to agree with them. 3) There was a pending treaty on the ban on Intermediate Range missiles (balistic and cruise) between US and Russia BUT this did not involve China. China has just increased the number of SLCMs in their stocks. This is an obvious attempt to control the seas and possibly attack land-based targets from their ships. A lot of these technologies came from Russia. www.andrewerickson.com/2014/05/a-low-visibility-force-multiplier-assessing-chinas-cruise-missile-ambitions/A very nice brief explanation on China's CM Program You raised a couple of good points OL.....but...... Any hostile action will escalate very, quickly. If it is china that makes the first move they will go all in. If it is initiated by one of the other players (US exempt here) then it will be a Tit for Tat and stay regional (again will depend on the US's moves also). Using the above as a formula - and I were advisor to China Military - I would have two options with NK. a) - use them as a wild card - a diversion to splinter any other groups making a push into the fray. b) - as a tool to initiate an offensive and making NK the villain should it fail. That's my thinking for point 1.
For point 2. - Google the Korean war. The Korean War Statistics www.shmoop.com/korean-war/statistics.html Estimated number of Chinese and North Koreans killed in the Korean War: 1,500,000 & Human wave attack - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_wave_attack
Use[edit]
The term "human wave attack" has been used to describe the infantry assault tactics used by several armed forces around the world. These included European armies during World War I,[5] the Imperial Japanese Army and Soviet Red Army during World War II,[6][7] the Chinese People's Liberation Army during the Korean War,[8] swedish insurgents during the Indochina Wars,[9] and the Iranian Basij during the Iran–Iraq War.[10]
People's Liberation Army[edit]
During the Chinese Civil War, Nationalist Chinese accused the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) of using unarmed civilians as human shields with the intention of draining Nationalist force's ammunition supplies during battles. This practice is often referred to as "human sea attack" by the Nationalist Chinese.[11]
Later, the term "human wave attack" was often misused[12] to describe the Chinese short attack — a combination of infiltration and the shock tactics employed by the PLA during the Korean War.[13] According to some accounts, Marshal Peng Dehuai—the overall commander of the Chinese forces in Korea—is said to have invented this tactic.[14] A typical Chinese short attack was carried out at night by small fireteams on a narrow front against the weakest point in enemy defenses.[13] The Chinese assault team would crawl undetected within grenade range, then launch surprise attacks against the defenders in order to breach the defenses by relying on maximum shock and confusion.[13]
If the initial shock failed to breach the defenses, additional fireteams would press on behind them and attack the same point until a breach was created.[13]
Point 3 - I admit, much of the initial technology was gained with Russia's assistance - but they are now a force that has far passed needing help - look at our new bloody useless ASIO HQ in ACT - riddle with chinese spyware (no one ever considered the plans the contractors were using would be targeted. They have leaped ahead with stealth tech, manufacturing is at a peak (that was the US's trump card in WWII if you recall). They appear to have complete jamming ability of Taiwan's newest OTHR system (it has a range of 5,000k) our JORN on a good day does over 3000k so ours is likely at risk also. I give ground that much of this technology was jointly done - but some was on stand alone ability. .......................
I wondered why the US was pushing the first naval Rail Gun into production - then I found out about vlad giving Syrias Assad those cheap jammers that basically made those tactical cruise missiles useless. (That's why Obey-me has been talking much about them as a main weapon as a deterrent - he doesn't want all the world to know he lost a fang).
P.S. - I don't think your paranoid. I think rightfully showing concerns - resources and water will be one of the triggers to a conflict in our part of the world in the southern hemisphere and Islamic extremism will be one of the two issues I see in the northern hemisphere.
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myrrph
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Post by myrrph on Jul 2, 2014 15:42:42 GMT 10
i think there are a few points worth of note to the human wave attack. The times are different. The Chinese are a lot richer than back then, people are more educated. There is a loss of belief in their party now. Chances of human wave happening again would not come from the Chinese. North Korea? Maybe.
That is why the cruise missiles which China is developing (or developed) is the interest factor. China are building their carriers and speeding up their technologies. That being said, they _do_ have a large army. Even if they don't do human wave attack, 10 rifles are still better than 1.
That is the reason why force multipliers are important and why the US believes in a meat grinder approach to battle. Grind them down to bits so infantry only does mop ups. Lives are expensive and easily lost. Bombs are expensive, but replaceable. Easily.
Cruise missiles and Robots now add a new complexity which at this moment, China doesn't have. YET.
in 5-10 years, it would be different.
But that is what we know at the moment. Is China playing a bluffing game by accelerating their ambitions? Hoping their technology can catch up before the war begins?
I think if there is a war, it will be within 3-5 years.
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myrrph
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Post by myrrph on Jul 2, 2014 17:19:36 GMT 10
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sentinel
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Post by sentinel on Jul 2, 2014 17:28:32 GMT 10
This is one article I can copy 'n' paste the link for; Five Chinese Weapons of War America Should Fear | The National Interest. nationalinterest.org/feature/five-chinese-weapons-war-america-should-fear-10388I did see the specs for that new destroyer - pretty impressive little ship. I also include a link to a list of weapons being developed in 2011 - notice the missiles then are not mentioned today. defence.pk/threads/top-10-future-weapons-of-china.128212/IMO - we are not taking them serious enough - where are most of the electronics made? (remember we will soon have smart metres on all Australian houses soon - and the TV's and X Boxes are not that simple any more - who makes these items?) - we will be under surveillance 24/7  I think you are close with the time frame though - with all that's occurring globally now if something doesn't 'break' in the next 12 to 18 months - I reckon we will survive anything. They are quietly building up their ability and resources and alliances - should something happen. They play the game well and now plan well in advance. They also don't have that smug little attitude like another country we well know that often leads them into very long drawn out disputes. |
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sentinel
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Post by sentinel on Jul 2, 2014 18:14:24 GMT 10
Think the Palm Oil Industry is a major contributor in this. ...................
Can Indonesia increase palm oil output without destroying its forest? | Paige McClanahan | Global development | theguardian.com
www.theguardian.com/global-development/2013/sep/11/indonesia-palm-oil-destroy-forests
(Part of the article from above link);
The world's biggest producer and consumer of palm oil plans to increase its production of the commodity to meet rising global demand. Indonesia claims it can reach its goal of producing 40m tonnes a year by 2020 without sacrificing sustainability, but campaigners have their doubts.
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myrrph
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Post by myrrph on Jul 2, 2014 18:59:09 GMT 10
yeah I know. Some people I've talked to think I'm crazy. I tell them that just by looking at the overt actions, its entirely clear.
Just treat everything that is done is the tip of the iceberg, literally 10% of what is being done. You will have a good estimation.
But if anything happens, as long its not a nuclear war, I think I will be able to survive. Now its plan to thrive.
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overlord
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Post by overlord on Jul 2, 2014 19:02:48 GMT 10
Sentinel, got to read the articles you posted. I agree on the NoKor thing but the leader is too much of a Wild Card. One mistake and China's plans can go south even if the situation can be blamed on him. The Human Wave Attack that they did during the Chinese Civil War wasn't the same "Suicide Attack" form as the Japanese did. They used unarmed citizens and not the actual soldiers. This is similar to the "Cannon Fodder" technique. Why waste valuable highly trained soldiers just to empty the guns of the enemy? LOL During the American Civil War, this tactic was employed since this is what was originally done as a tactic in Europe. Technically, a suicide attack would entail soldiers who will kill and kill until they are killed in the process. The PLA activities during the Korean War were more of a special ops tactic with a twist, if the first team failed, a second team was right behind them to continue their advance. A Forced "Suicide Attack" was also done during WW2 (Remember the movie "Enemy At The Gates") by the Russians, if a Russian soldier didn't want to fight, he was shot on the spot by his officer. I don't think that the Chinese nowadays, would agree to commit suicide since they are now getting "spoiled" by the luxuries of modernity. I have a feeling that the Chinese are up-playing their military capabilities. Why is it that if they "have" so much military might are they not deploying it in key areas in the West Philippine Sea? We keep seeing small ships that even we, as poorly equipped as our Navy is, can match up in terms of technology although not in numbers. It seems to be a whole lot of "Campaigning" which is a known tactic of Communist Regimes. Although I wasn't a soldier in our Armed Forces, what I know comes only from reading and watching (docus, movies, and not actual wars hehe)... so if there are mistakes, I am only human, my friend  |
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sentinel
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Post by sentinel on Jul 3, 2014 6:17:20 GMT 10
I don't think that the Chinese nowadays, would agree to commit suicide since they are now getting "spoiled" by the luxuries of modernity. I have a feeling that the Chinese are up-playing their military capabilities. Why is it that if they "have" so much military might are they not deploying it in key areas in the West Philippine Sea? We keep seeing small ships that even we, as poorly equipped as our Navy is, can match up in terms of technology although not in numbers. It seems to be a whole lot of "Campaigning" which is a known tactic of Communist Regimes. Although I wasn't a soldier in our Armed Forces, what I know comes only from reading and watching (docus, movies, and not actual wars hehe)... so if there are mistakes, I am only human, my friend I agree with most of this call - but this is for the majority of the modern day Chinese - even with figures from below, a low as 1% or 2% of 1,390,510,630 (est pop) leaves a bloody big problem with party controlled fanatics - 'win at all costs' attitude which would provide years of fighting to reach an end. Many of the outer regions are still pretty backward as well. (There are also some unexplainable 'rather largish warehouse' like structures picked up on sat images that have me very curious as there appears in many instances - no roads to them. We have the construction of ghost cities for a relocation of some estimated 250m peasant farmers to be relocated as the gov't wants their land for massive cultivation and previous used land is now contaminated from a saturation of pollutants and heavy metals). So I still see the fanatics within the system as a feasible and doable possibility - there is even a growing number of Russians that want to go back to the old soviet state era in todays times (you work for the gov't and they provide for you - there are still parts of this system in place today - you work in a place for so long they give you at a flat and it's your to do whatever with - people see how they were provided for in the past and become nostalgic - they forget the brutality and oppression that went with it - fortunately for us Putin has made sure that the peoples pay system has become more controlled and is on a regular basis now).
Population of China 2014
www.worldpopulationstatistics.com/population-of-china-2014/
Based on the total number of births, total number of deaths, net migration rates, and the population of 2013, the current population of the People’s Republic of China is estimated to be about 1,390,510,630. China’s population makes up around 19.3% of the world’s population.
You do however make a statement that has me intrigued now, regarding navel activity from what you've seen and seen reported I take it that things appear 'on-a-par'. (I appreciate the opinion and of the 'eye's on the ground' observation and I consider this as one of the best intel tools yet, and should be used with all other methods for final analysis - So, if these are NOT the newer classed Destroyers or Coastal Patrol boats then - Where are they? This does indeed allow for a different outlook - and I have no explanation for this usage of older warships in such a vital territorial dispute!!!
(The only possible reason I can think of ATM, is they intend to move on Japan first and this will automatically bring in the US and us and after the smoke clears the countries involved in the other dispute will then tow the line should Chinas move be a success, as the 'current equaliser {the US}' has been removed. - I do hope I am wrong on this one).
Looking at the map of the pacific region - you could hide several fleets in the yellow sea and east china sea areas including allies like N-K ports and in Russia up in the sea of Okhotsk. All within an easy strike distance of Japan. (If this plays out it will be 'all-in' as china has modernised itself into a monster that must continue to grow and develop - or crash to it's knees and beg for help).
India is still the unknown in all this - Which side of the fence will they end up on? - I bet when they declare sides they will go for the winner, and their inclusion will be the winning point. So it will be - Game-Set-Match.
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overlord
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Post by overlord on Jul 3, 2014 11:57:02 GMT 10
Good thing on the India idea. Didn't think of that. During the last convention with Myanmar and China, they stated support for China in the sense that they don't want conflict. Just got this off Yahoo regarding China's reaction to Japan's opening up of its military role: ph.news.yahoo.com/china-criticises-japans-move-expand-military-role-171303028.htmlYep, their population is so huge that the joke here in the Philippines is that if all the Chinese would take a piss, they could easily drown out our country LOL PS: Forgot to mention, the closest I got to military involvement was my VIP Security training at one of our bases here in 1990 and my cancelled application to the US Navy (must have been a blessing though). hehehe.... "A Wannabe" haha |
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myrrph
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Post by myrrph on Jul 3, 2014 13:00:36 GMT 10
imho. a colleague and i were just talking about it.
the US needs Japan to open up its military. Because it simply cannot afford to have huge carrier groups to provide deterence 24/7/365
thats our opinion.
china doesn't want a harmonious ASEAN or a good relationship between Australia and the rest of Asia. China will look towards expanding outwards within 3-5 years. What they cannot buy, they will have to overtake. Scary stuff.
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overlord
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Post by overlord on Jul 4, 2014 11:47:39 GMT 10
They are simply running out of resources that is why they are desperate for the resources in the West Philippine Sea and around the area. If the ASEAN countries join forces, the Chinese wouldn't be able to get their needed resources.
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overlord
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Post by overlord on Jul 4, 2014 15:57:25 GMT 10
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myrrph
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Post by myrrph on Jul 4, 2014 16:37:03 GMT 10
classic reasons for another world war.
WWII was about resources too
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sentinel
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Post by sentinel on Jul 5, 2014 0:45:35 GMT 10
China attacks Japan for 'barbarous' past - Asia-Pacific - Al Jazeera English www.aljazeera.com/news/asia-pacific/2014/07/china-attacks-japan-barbarous-war-past-20147462238353147.html(Asia-Pacific) China attacks Japan for 'barbarous' past President Xi Jinping's speech in Seoul comes days after Tokyo announced a landmark shift in its pacifist defence policy. Last updated: 04 Jul 2014 14:01 China's president has sharply criticised Japan's history of military aggression in China and South Korea, during a speech in Seoul that came days after Tokyo changed its pacifist constitution. "In the first half of the 20th century, Japanese militarists carried out barbarous wars of aggression against China and Korea, swallowing Korea and occupying half of the Chinese mainland," Xi Jinping said on Friday at Seoul National University. China and the Korean peninsula were occupied by Japan in the early 20th century. Xi's speech came on the second and last day of his state trip to South Korea, which had been flagged as a snub to ally North Korea because of his decision to visit Seoul before Pyongyang. But the key issue of North Korea's nuclear weapons was mentioned in a passing reference to the need for a "denuclearised Korean peninsula". Japan announced this week that its military had the right to go into battle in defence of allies, a major shift in the nation's pacifist constitution. China, Japan, North Korea and its southern enemy are locked in a series of political and territorial disputes. Relations between Seoul and Tokyo are at a low ebb, with governments mired in disputes related to Japan's 1910-45 rule over the peninsula. China is also embroiled in a territorial row with Japan over areas of the East China Sea. Source: Al Jazeera and agencies |
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sentinel
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Post by sentinel on Jul 6, 2014 8:16:39 GMT 10
OK - now that this is 'official' the whole dynamics of the Asia pacific region has had a dramatic change with this in place. Looks like they have put a lot of thought into launching this add campaign. (To me this is a sign that they are 'Gearing-Up-For-War'!!) Interesting article. ................. Will Japan's youth go to war because a pretty girl told them to? - Opinion - Al Jazeera English www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/07/japan-decision-war-201475142233628897.html |
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