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Post by illuminati on Apr 3, 2020 9:46:41 GMT 10
I'm thinking there must be many, many untested people with the disease in Italy. If they are counted, the mortality rate would be lower. Italy has one of the highest testing rates in the world in terms of percentage of population. I think the numbers there are probably some of the most accurate compared to other countries. Globally the death rate is 5%. In most countries where they are early in the trajectory or managed to stop it the death rate is about 1%. Death rate: Italy 12.1% Spain 9.2% Netherlands 9.1% UK 8.6% France 7.6% These countries all have over 10,000 confirmed infected, so relatively big enough numbers. Other countries with only a few reported cases and deaths have larger percentages but the numbers are too small. There’s different strains of the virus. And different countries have different demographics like percentage of elderly, or those with other risk factors like obesity, etc., as well as where they got hit the hardest and how well equipped and how much capacity the hospitals there has which might explain the differences but that’s all speculative. Hard to say why some have higher than others. I got the stats from here: cv19info.live |
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Post by illuminati on Apr 3, 2020 9:49:08 GMT 10
 Italy has something like 0.19% of there population confirmed infected. About 2 people out of every 1000. According to that graph. |
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Post by illuminati on Apr 3, 2020 9:56:46 GMT 10
 This was showing that about 4.7% of cases needed intensive care. From what I understand, if those needing intensive care don’t get it they’ll die. So when a hospital had a small enough amount of people needing ICU and enough ICU capacity, like ventilators they can save a bunch of people so only 1/5 of those needing ICU die, or about 1% of cases. But if there’s 1000 people needing ICU and only 10 ventilators which are all already being used to keep someone alive then ~5% of the 1000 will die and the death rate goes from 1% to 5%. It’s the whole argument for flattening the curve. To keep the numbers need ICU under the maximum capacity so they can save as many as possible. Once a health system becomes massively overwhelmed people who would normally be saved from other diseases and trauma etc will also fall to the wayside and die. I wouldn’t want to be in a serious car accident in Italy right now. |
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norseman
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Post by norseman on Apr 3, 2020 9:58:49 GMT 10
Bet they all wish they weren't part of the European Union with open borders now!
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fei
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Post by fei on Apr 3, 2020 11:15:10 GMT 10
This was showing that about 4.7% of cases needed intensive care. From what I understand, if those needing intensive care don’t get it they’ll die. So when a hospital had a small enough amount of people needing ICU and enough ICU capacity, like ventilators they can save a bunch of people so only 1/5 of those needing ICU die, or about 1% of cases. But if there’s 1000 people needing ICU and only 10 ventilators which are all already being used to keep someone alive then ~5% of the 1000 will die and the death rate goes from 1% to 5%. It’s the whole argument for flattening the curve. To keep the numbers need ICU under the maximum capacity so they can save as many as possible. Once a health system becomes massively overwhelmed people who would normally be saved from other diseases and trauma etc will also fall to the wayside and die. I wouldn’t want to be in a serious car accident in Italy right now. Hence why Germany is doing ok. They have the most ICU beds and associated equipment of any European country, plus test tens of thousands of people per week and contact trace all the confirmed cases for quarantining. |
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Apr 3, 2020 21:51:11 GMT 10
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Morgo
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Post by Morgo on Apr 3, 2020 22:24:35 GMT 10
The USA is going to be interesting to watch.
It's a powder keg and I wouldn't be surprised if we see some of it explode this time.
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Apr 3, 2020 22:56:36 GMT 10
The USA is going to be interesting to watch. It's a powder keg and I wouldn't be surprised if we see some of it explode this time.Yip Yip with 10million having lost employment in the last 2 weeks. Us Job figures show 701k job lost up till mid March - prior to the last two week mass layoff. There is a huge virus outbreaks among world security personal - parts of the US they police said they would not attend crime sites. Almost 500 Detroit police officers quarantined for possible coronaviruswww.fox2detroit.com/news/almost-500-detroit-police-officers-quarantined-for-possible-coronavirus |
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Morgo
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Post by Morgo on Apr 4, 2020 8:29:55 GMT 10
I think its not entirely out of the question that if the virus continues out of hand over there and the crime increases we could see entire cites like Detroit, which is already a dangerous city with high crime rate high gang presence and high unemployment, being a write off where law enforcement and medical response simply don't go out.
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Morgo
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Post by Morgo on Apr 4, 2020 8:37:06 GMT 10
This is interesting www.usatoday.com/picture-gallery/travel/experience/america/2018/10/17/25-most-dangerous-cities-america/1669467002/2. Detroit, Michigan • 2017 Violent crime rate: 2,057 per 100,000 • 2017 Homicides: 267 • Poverty rate: 39.4% • Unemployment rate: 9.3% 1. St. Louis, Missouri • 2017 Violent crime rate: 2,082 per 100,000 • 2017 Homicides: 205 • Poverty rate: 26.7% • Unemployment rate: 4.4% Detroit may have been listed number two due to having a slightly lower crime rate (not much in it) but Detroit's overall stats are far far worse. It will probably be the city to watch. |
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bushdoc2
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Post by bushdoc2 on Apr 4, 2020 10:53:03 GMT 10
It may be "mild" in most cases, but so are some snake bites.
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Post by spinifex on Apr 5, 2020 9:47:34 GMT 10
There has been a lack of bulk carriers loading grain at the regional terminal here. Usually there is at least one ship at the warf loading at any given time plus a few anchored off-shore waiting to take a load. Now they are nowhere in sight.
Some folks somewhere (likely the ME) are going to be short on food if the ships are not bringing them their usual grain deliveries.
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Post by SA Hunter on Apr 6, 2020 14:14:37 GMT 10
There has been a lack of bulk carriers loading grain at the regional terminal here. Usually there is at least one ship at the warf loading at any given time plus a few anchored off-shore waiting to take a load. Now they are nowhere in sight. Some folks somewhere (likely the ME) are going to be short on food if the ships are not bringing them their usual grain deliveries. A few truckies I've spoken to are on edge that the grain shipments will stop - then so do they. One of my mates just recently financed a Prime mover & 2 trailers to cart grain! He was also a captain on a lobster boat, but they have all shut down. There's 1 carrier in today, I'll keep an eye out over the week. |
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Beno
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Post by Beno on Apr 6, 2020 17:44:09 GMT 10
There has been a lack of bulk carriers loading grain at the regional terminal here. Usually there is at least one ship at the warf loading at any given time plus a few anchored off-shore waiting to take a load. Now they are nowhere in sight. Some folks somewhere (likely the ME) are going to be short on food if the ships are not bringing them their usual grain deliveries. A few truckies I've spoken to are on edge that the grain shipments will stop - then so do they. One of my mates just recently financed a Prime mover & 2 trailers to cart grain! He was also a captain on a lobster boat, but they have all shut down. There's 1 carrier in today, I'll keep an eye out over the week. Ahhh that sucks and is sad to hear but it’s happening all over. This is where the gov needs to prioritise stimulus, Aussies who are having a go and have taken the risk to get ahead. Supporting whiny little cucks like Alan Joyce should be verboten. |
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bug
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Post by bug on Apr 6, 2020 19:48:09 GMT 10
There has been a lack of bulk carriers loading grain at the regional terminal here. Usually there is at least one ship at the warf loading at any given time plus a few anchored off-shore waiting to take a load. Now they are nowhere in sight. Some folks somewhere (likely the ME) are going to be short on food if the ships are not bringing them their usual grain deliveries. Saudi Arabia and Yemen have increased its population by 50% since the early 2000s. Oman has doubled. All in desert areas with almost zero cropping other than that fed by desalination or water bores. If there is ever a real shutdown of food shipping, these guys will starve. |
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Post by milspec on Apr 7, 2020 6:22:27 GMT 10
As northern Italy is ravaged by coronavirus, there's trouble brewing down south www.cnn.com/2020/04/04/europe/southern-italy-coronavirus-black-economy-intl/index.htmlItaly has some different conditions to us with its mafia and large undocumented workforce/black economy. Those people wont benefit from .gov payments to those who've lost jobs etc, hence they become increasingly desperate. Now they've started intercepting the trucks filled with groceries while they are on the highway as well as looting at stores. |
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bushdoc2
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Post by bushdoc2 on Apr 7, 2020 16:57:55 GMT 10
There has been a lack of bulk carriers loading grain at the regional terminal here. Usually there is at least one ship at the warf loading at any given time plus a few anchored off-shore waiting to take a load. Now they are nowhere in sight. Some folks somewhere (likely the ME) are going to be short on food if the ships are not bringing them their usual grain deliveries. Saudi Arabia and Yemen have increased its population by 50% since the early 2000s. Oman has doubled. All in desert areas with almost zero cropping other than that fed by desalination or water bores. If there is ever a real shutdown of food shipping, these guys will starve. Or they will blockade the choke points like the Straight of Hormuz, and demand food or they cut off the oil. |
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Beno
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Post by Beno on Apr 8, 2020 17:21:58 GMT 10
2 big things i’ve noticed in Aus over the past 24hrs that has significant question marks over them are
1. the convicted by jury pedo Pell has been released. This has occurred amongst the noice of covid 19 and will quietly go away. So three (chances are one or more are pedos themselves)judges get to over rule a jury of the people. WTF?
2. WA har apparently going to use electronic ankle bracelets on people caught breaking quarantine laws. Sounds sus but at least they aren’t hacking peoples phones and data.
The stick is being flexed.
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Ammo9
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Post by Ammo9 on Apr 8, 2020 20:16:48 GMT 10
2 big things i’ve noticed in Aus over the past 24hrs that has significant question marks over them are 1. the convicted by jury pedo Pell has been released. This has occurred amongst the noice of covid 19 and will quietly go away. So three (chances are one or more are pedos themselves)judges get to over rule a jury of the people. WTF? 2. WA har apparently going to use electronic ankle bracelets on people caught breaking quarantine laws. Sounds sus but at least they aren’t hacking peoples phones and data. The stick is being flexed. You're assuming they're not, who know's what's been put in place under the current emergency powers |
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fei
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Post by fei on Apr 8, 2020 21:08:55 GMT 10
2 big things i’ve noticed in Aus over the past 24hrs that has significant question marks over them are 1. the convicted by jury pedo Pell has been released. This has occurred amongst the noice of covid 19 and will quietly go away. So three (chances are one or more are pedos themselves)judges get to over rule a jury of the people. WTF? 2. WA har apparently going to use electronic ankle bracelets on people caught breaking quarantine laws. Sounds sus but at least they aren’t hacking peoples phones and data. The stick is being flexed. You're assuming they're not, who know's what's been put in place under the current emergency powers It appears one bloke in Perth was arrested and sent to remand due to breaking 14-day isolation in a hotel several times. (read it this morning but can't find the link now) |
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