spatial
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Post by spatial on May 14, 2023 13:28:46 GMT 10
Just a thought, what if the Judiciary collapses, the rule of law no longer applies? That, would possibly precipitate a Government/economic collapse. The way the World is going woke with over 50 definitions of gender, could put it over the edge. We already see stacked courts in America, delivering verdicts the Government wants, ignoring any Constitutional rights. Could the same happen here ? I would like to think our courts are not as politically involved as in the USA, but we are becoming more caught up in world events by the day. It is a battle for ideas and opinions, people are very divided, more than ever before.. Like stealing elections and blaming then prosecuting Trump. It is going to end in a US civil war. Australians are way toooo tame and believe in the Gov will help them. There will be no collapse till they loose faith in the Gov, then the entitled generation will go berserk. Meanwhile on the economic front, the band news keeps rolling in. Recession Odds Rise To Highest In 40 Years: Fed www.theepochtimes.com/recession-odds-rise-to-highest-in-40-years-fed_5263247.htmlThe odds that the United States will fall into a recession at some point over the next 12 months have risen to a 40-year high, according to a probability model from the New York Federal Reserve. The probability that the country will enter a recession within the next year has risen to 68.2 percent, according to the New York Fed, which is the highest level since 1982. There Goes The US Consumer: Card Data Reveal First Drop In Household Spending In Two Years As Upper-Income Wages Tumble, Unemployment Benefits Soarwww.zerohedge.com/markets/there-goes-us-consumer-card-data-reveals-first-drop-household-spending-two-years-upper |
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spatial
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Post by spatial on May 15, 2023 12:36:59 GMT 10
Russia getting smashed in the Ukrainian war. Over the weekend lost 4 filed military leader ( colonel's), 4 aircraft, 2 jest and 2 helicopters. Current thinking is that the Russians shot down their own aircraft by mistake.
Got surrounded by Ukrainian troops lost comms with rest of Russian command and got slaughtered.
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malewithatail
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Post by malewithatail on May 15, 2023 14:25:05 GMT 10
Theres a name for that sort of tubesteak up....friendly fire.
Since we are defining things, a gun is a cordless hole puncher.
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spatial
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Post by spatial on May 15, 2023 15:34:42 GMT 10
Theres a name for that sort of tubesteak up....friendly fire. Yip, I think it is due to panic from the much publicized Ukrainian spring offensive that is yet to start, with all the new NATO weapons' they have received. By delaying due to weather and other factors, it has had an added benefit of messing with the Russian psyche... Reports of starvation, not getting paid since January, no leave, soldiers sent to ICU for battel injuries then sent straight back to the front lines without recovering properly. Stress fatigue and moral issues can destroy any army. |
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Jul 1, 2023 13:11:19 GMT 10
Half the year gone how are the predictions going.
South Africa is in death spiral and very close to becoming a failed state.
Global food security is very stretched, the US is in major heat wave - big impact on corps (Corn and wheat)
Riots in full swing in France, on the 4th day something like 2,000 cars burnt 500 buildings damaged, mass looting of shops. 900 arrested.
US banks getting record bailout assistance from the central banks, not long and it all implodes.
Turkey economy is freefall +40% inflation.
Lebanon is gone
Pakistan is in failed state mode, no way out..
'China growth has stalled and youth unemployment very high...
Australian interest rates are killing the economy and very many in stressed out credit cards..
Not long and something has to give that will start all the dominoes falling..
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Post by Stealth on Jul 1, 2023 13:31:24 GMT 10
This. Food insecurity and homelessness will be problems this year. They already have been, but we'll see more dissatisfaction from the dwindling middle class. 'No one' cares about the lower class or already homeless so they don't report it as much but as soon as it becomes common for the middle class that's left to start missing out you can be sure MSM will start reporting it more. More news about community gardens and curb-side initiatives for food growth. Victory gardens will be in vogue again not for quaint appeal or hobby but necessity. Housing. Always housing. We'll hear more of tiny houses, cabin/caravan life, and down-sizing from the younger generations who can no longer afford rent and can't save for a mortgage. More multi-generational homes. More young families with children moving back home with parents. Not to save, but because just getting buy will cost everything they earn. I see the rising cost of fuel and electricity/gas putting an even larger dent in the average pocket book. I expect to see reports of higher rates of the elderly/disadvantaged dying from the cold in the middle of winter as their pensions haven't raised but the cost of living has. Can't turn the heat on if you can't pay for it. Particularly the elderly are less inclined to realise quite how cold they are as quickly as a younger person. They're also often less mobile so not inclined to be up and about as much to keep the warmth of faster blood flow going from movement. They're at higher risk of 'slipping away quietly' because they've been very cold for a long period of time without realising it and simply having all of their functions depressed enough to simply stop. I agree that there's money to be made for the savvy. I predict that the US dollar will tank and take a lot of commodities with it. Precious metals have hit their 8 year cycle low a bit early so while I don't think it'll happen this year I'm expecting to see the prices for both silver and gold to start climbing up. I'm not expecting a bubble phase until 2024 however. That being said, good time to get in. Close to the bottom floor at the moment IMO. And finally I see a large scale conflict that we're directly involved in within the next five years. That's not a 2023 prediction, but the yanks have just effectively declared the "War on Terror" as officially ended by releasing their National Defense Service Medal for the War on Terrorism for the period 2001 to 2022. The WoT is over boiz, we did it 🙄😑😂. Anyway, time frame wise for their gong hand out and I suspect that by 2027 we'll be watching warheads on foreheads in one direction or other. At least we have some kind of workable metric *snort*. I don't see any reason to change my predictions at this stage, most of my "Yep, that's happening" is pretty anecdotal and related to my experience in my local area so I wouldn't say they've come true for EVERYONE, but they certainly smell like they were baked today in our area. I haven't seen much about older people dying at higher rates but I'm also over west now so don't regularly access local news for colder states anymore. It's chilly here, but not COLD. I'm loving it heh. |
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Jul 1, 2023 13:40:50 GMT 10
Racist pregnant woman shoots black guy.... The US is in chaos.
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malewithatail
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Post by malewithatail on Jul 1, 2023 14:05:03 GMT 10
USA elections net year either postponed or not happening due to WW3/social upheaval. Biden president for ever.
You don’t get to 500 million friends on Facebook, without making a few enemies. Joe Biden.
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Jul 1, 2023 14:12:07 GMT 10
USA elections net year either postponed or not happening due to WW3/social upheaval. Biden president for ever. You don’t get to 500 million friends on Facebook, without making a few enemies. Joe Biden. 360 million people in the US and all the can get is an old has been suffering from dementia. That tells one all about the US... |
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dadbod
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Post by dadbod on Jul 3, 2023 5:20:32 GMT 10
USA elections net year either postponed or not happening due to WW3/social upheaval. Biden president for ever. You don’t get to 500 million friends on Facebook, without making a few enemies. Joe Biden. 360 million people in the US and all the can get is an old has been suffering from dementia. That tells one all about the US... the isolationism and disengagement from global issues since bush has been scary, but i think obama/trump/biden periods highlight the fact that the US is so entrenched as a superpower without genuine threat, that the focus can be on pride months and billionaires submarines, rather than anything of substance. this shit would not have flown back during the cold war. who would world war three be between? russia is done, actually done. it will be more interesting to see who will occupy the old assets of russia once she collapses. xi could try something, but would be screwed within a week of war with stopped shipping. only way either would be involved is to fling some nukes, but i dont see that playing out at this point |
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malewithatail
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Post by malewithatail on Jul 3, 2023 8:56:14 GMT 10
You are forgetting Fat Man in Korea.
I'm sure its in the manual somewhere !
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Post by Stealth on Jul 3, 2023 12:36:58 GMT 10
Oh I would add two things. I don't predict house prices are going to come down this year, but I DO think that if we get to the 4.5% unemployment rate that the Reserve Bank seem to be targeting to stop raising rates will mean that people are going to start trying to sell their investment properties at the price they THINK they're worth (ie. what the going market rate is... highly and offensively inflated as is everything else).
I suspect we'll see a lot of people hold on to those properties for longer than they should because we've all been sold the 'investment properties can't lose' story for decades. I reckon we'll get to the end of the year and start hearing about banks reclaiming properties and then that's when the flood of places will come onto the market. And I think that in the new year is when we'll see prices reduce in SOME areas. But there will also be a lot of areas where people simply up the rent and force the tenants into an impossible position of paying higher rent or being homeless. For most, that won't be a choice because they simply don't have the money.
Anecdotally, our neighbour is about to put his investment property up for sale because their interest rate is about to go up to 8%. I don't know if they're over-leveraged and therefore unattractive to a different bank, or if banks are just tightening the screws even more than they were previously on new loans. Either way I think he's making a smart move because property prices are still high and the panic of the masses selling off their investments hasn't yet happened.
So essentially - Sales of investment properties will go up gradually and then there'll be a decent amount of them hitting the market. Owners will expect current market value for them... But they probably won't get it. 6-12 months of stubborn holding out because they don't want to take a loss. Then selling at a loss or losing everything because they refused to see the writing on the wall.
And if they are targeting a 4.5% unemployment rate before rate rises stop I expect it would take several months for this to all filter through the system, hence expecting it to take end of year or into the new year for that to all happen. I also suspect the unemployment rate is actually going higher than they would like. These types of things move through the system slowly so by the time they pull the breaks it'll probably be several months too late. I would hazard a guess at 5% unemployment, or even up to 6% if they didn't pull the lever early enough.
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frostbite
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Post by frostbite on Jul 3, 2023 13:00:28 GMT 10
I predict a new cabin at my mountain retreat, an awesome meet with a couple of new faces, a severe beating from Mrs Frostbite when she finds out about my 28 year old girlfriend...oh, you mean for the world? A few more interest rate rises here in Aus, more social unrest and crime (in the US especially), stalemate war of attrition in Ukraine, China continue buying influence in the Pacific, governments all over the world restricting freedom under the guise of climate change action etc etc My prediction from last December is going fairly well. The new cabin is built and in the process of being lined, the annual prepper meet was a success albeit without the 2 new faces, but Mrs Frostbite hasn’t beaten me to death yet. interest rates continued to rise, lots of social unrest in the US and France especially, Ukraine war is a stalemate, China still looking to expand their influence, particularly in Cuba, and the latest attack on our freedoms is grubbyment threatening huge fines for any social media platform that permits comment that doesn’t follow the party line. my prediction for the future: Australia becomes South Africa with very high levels of violent crime, particularly home invasion, carjacking and knife attacks, a crumbling power grid with more frequent brownouts and a failing health care system. |
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norseman
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Post by norseman on Jul 3, 2023 13:12:30 GMT 10
I predict a new cabin at my mountain retreat, an awesome meet with a couple of new faces, a severe beating from Mrs Frostbite when she finds out about my 28 year old girlfriend...oh, you mean for the world? A few more interest rate rises here in Aus, more social unrest and crime (in the US especially), stalemate war of attrition in Ukraine, China continue buying influence in the Pacific, governments all over the world restricting freedom under the guise of climate change action etc etc My prediction from last December is going fairly well. The new cabin is built and in the process of being lined, the annual prepper meet was a success albeit without the 2 new faces, but Mrs Frostbite hasn’t beaten me to death yet. interest rates continued to rise, lots of social unrest in the US and France especially, Ukraine war is a stalemate, China still looking to expand their influence, particularly in Cuba, and the latest attack on our freedoms is grubbyment threatening huge fines for any social media platform that permits comment that doesn’t follow the party line. my prediction for the future: Australia becomes South Africa with very high levels of violent crime, particularly home invasion, carjacking and knife attacks, a crumbling power grid with more frequent brownouts and a failing health care system. Yep that's pretty much about where I see Oz right now and on into the darkness! There is no coming back from all this and it is accelerating South Africa and Argentina type existence is now our future, was saying it a decade ago and everyone was laughing at me! Suck it up beotches (present company excluded). |
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Jul 3, 2023 15:54:00 GMT 10
Oh I would add two things. I don't predict house prices are going to come down this year, but I DO think that if we get to the 4.5% unemployment rate that the Reserve Bank seem to be targeting to stop raising rates will mean that people are going to start trying to sell their investment properties at the price they THINK they're worth (ie. what the going market rate is... highly and offensively inflated as is everything else)........................................ Spoke to an estate agent 2 weeks back at a open house, was with someone looking at purchasing a new built house. The estate argent said there are now plenty of houses on the market but still plenty of buyers. The buyers will dry up due to interest rate hikes. As soon as buyers get a sniff of prices going down, it goes into a death spiral. i.e. hold back on purchase thinking prices will go down more. Then prices drop and the thinking continues - deflation is actually worse than inflation. A subsequent pest and building inspection of the property was carried out, with number of issues noted like gutters too close to house and tiles overlapping the gutters. Roof trestles not to standard, drainage in front of the house missing, piles of building rubble in the yard etc.... The builder and owner of the house refusing to make any changes - said their expected price was well below what the market is currently selling at. Also said the new owners must on their own cost get the occupational certificate... What a shemozzle - buyer walked away.... It is early stages of collapse, weekly one hears of a builder/construction company that has gone under.. It starts slowly then suddenly accelerates to chaos. |
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frostbite
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Post by frostbite on Jul 3, 2023 16:16:52 GMT 10
We’ve just listed the MIL’s house for sale, as she has moved into a nursing home. 12 people came through first open day, and a pretty good offer made one day after that. It’s a crappy 60 year old fibro home, bottom of the market, we want $650k and got an offer of $645k after 1 day.
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Post by Stealth on Jul 3, 2023 17:28:29 GMT 10
Whoooooa... See that's what drives me nuts. The market will pay that much for a fibro home. But that's because that's what's asked. Because that's what people will pay. Because that's what's asked. It's a vicious cycle of someone has to take the hit somewhere and it's not fair to expect a seller to not want as much as they're offered. But it's also impossible for the young ones just getting out there because they can't afford what's being asked. The houses simply aren't WORTH that much money! But inflation says they are, so that's what people have to pay.
I think we got very lucky with our house. A few renos later, and it's probably worth at least 30k more than what we bought it for 12 months ago. But that's not the win. The win is that it's a low rental availability area with a lot of people wanting to live around here. When we want to sell in a few years time it's pretty unlikely that we won't at least come out even. That's even considering inflation. We're not trying to make money on it, we just don't want to LOSE money given that we're planning to go into our forever home next. I'm quietly hoping that the housing market does sink a little because if we're lucky we'll be able to rely on protective factors like living extremely close to a primary school and highschool, and being in a popular new residence zone.
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frostbite
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Post by frostbite on Jul 3, 2023 18:56:08 GMT 10
That’s cheap Stealth. Bottom of the market. My place just up the road is worth $1m, and 20km north you’d be looking at least $1.5m. Plenty of $2m houses here, and we’re an hour south of Sydney. Even my couple of acres down south, with no house, no water, no sewer, is in the $750k to $800k range.
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Jul 4, 2023 7:58:01 GMT 10
Whoooooa... See that's what drives me nuts. The market will pay that much for a fibro home. But that's because that's what's asked. Because that's what people will pay. Because that's what's asked. It's a vicious cycle of someone has to take the hit somewhere and it's not fair to expect a seller to not want as much as they're offered. But it's also impossible for the young ones just getting out there because they can't afford what's being asked. The houses simply aren't WORTH that much money! But inflation says they are, so that's what people have to pay. I think we got very lucky with our house. A few renos later, and it's probably worth at least 30k more than what we bought it for 12 months ago. But that's not the win. The win is that it's a low rental availability area with a lot of people wanting to live around here. When we want to sell in a few years time it's pretty unlikely that we won't at least come out even. That's even considering inflation. We're not trying to make money on it, we just don't want to LOSE money given that we're planning to go into our forever home next. I'm quietly hoping that the housing market does sink a little because if we're lucky we'll be able to rely on protective factors like living extremely close to a primary school and highschool, and being in a popular new residence zone. Yip, critical housing shortage - to pay such an huge sum of money for a fibro house makes sense when your payments would be less than a rental. So there is big competition for budget houses. Also the stamp duty for new home buyers is changing so there was a bit of panic for financial year end and stupid decisions made. |
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frostbite
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Post by frostbite on Jul 4, 2023 8:29:29 GMT 10
$600k loan is about $3k a month repayments. Mil’s house would rent for about $500 per week. So basically you’d be getting a home for about $1000 per month over rent. Try google search for house for sale Illawarra or Wollongong for under $600k. Good luck.
In fact, I’ll save you the trouble. There is none, apart from a mobile home in a trailer park (close to the beach though) for $480-500k
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