I Predict 2023

There’s a huge cohort of people that will never buy a home, even if prices fall substantially ( which they won’t unless we end immigration). They don’t have the fortitude to save, don’t want to work harder, don’t want to be in debt for decades. They prefer their new cars, $1200 iPhones, overseas holidays, $6 morning coffee, expensive gym fees etc etc. Without investors buying or building rental properties they will become homeless. Bottom line is the rental market relies on investors. Take away the incentive and you take away the rental stock availability. There’s plenty that can change to help the rental crisis, like giving landlords the right to more speedily evict tenants that refuse to pay or making tenants more liable for damage they cause.

Home ownership and real estate investments have made me a multi millionaire, on a salary most people would call pathetic. 30% to 40% return per year is the norm for me.

I’m not cash poor, I keep threatening the Mrs that I’m going to hit the savings and pay cash for a brand new Lamborghini.  She counters by keep filling the garage with stuff so I can’t fit even my runaround Hyundai in, let alone a supercar.  It’d even take me half a morning just to get to my sports bike. 

I ask myself that question often. I’m not working much these days, using up all my accrued leave. Haven’t worked since end April, not sure if I’ll return anytime soon. Got enough leave until mid next year if I want. My work wife must be missing me.

I'm genuinely interested in what your retirement plan is. Not even being a little silly here, I've had a few friends say the same thing but every time I've asked there's only been vague "Oh, we'll figure it out" responses. They're not prep minded so I suspect you have an actual plan.


That's what worries me for our generation though, the vast majority have no plan. What will you do when you want to or have to retire? I have many friends who're of the same opinion. And in fairness, my view is couched around my paranoid assumption that the economy is going to boot in and all our super will evaporate into the ether of failed investments, and bitter expectation that the age pension will no longer exist by the time we're at retirement age.

I realise that most people from our generation don't think that way, but....What if? Can you afford to pay your rent on the age pension as it is now and enjoy a relatively comfortable life? Because I highly doubt that the pension will go up. It'll stay stagnant if anything. If we'd had that situation occur in our last rental, I couldn't have covered the rent let alone pay bills and buy food on the age pension as it exists. I worry a lot about people expecting that things will look the same in their retirement years that they do now and I personally feel like it's going to look very different. I realise that we'd hopefully be paying less because we wouldn't be in a four bedroom house. But with the way housing is going, there's just as much chance that we could have one, all, or even plus partners and possibly even children of our adult children.

And if it all goes to pot and you have to rely on a government pension (which, by the way, I think we should ALL be entitled to after spending our entire adult lives supporting the tax system) how are people going to manage that? It seems like most people don't have a real answer to that.

Do you have kids, Tactile? Having children often shapes our investment decisions.

It's exceptionally rare to come across someone that's a self-funded retiree or pensioner that's a Millennial. Our current income also sees us technically as no longer 'middle class' although it's hard to say what middle class even is anymore. I had my early childhood in a standard middle class family but then from my mid-teens onwards everything was by the skin of my teeth until my late 20s. I think that informs how I look at housing. It's a desperately vital requirement to comfortable existence and the idea of someone being able to pull that out from underneath us is with very little that can be done about it... *shudders*. I've lived under that threat many times before and the mental strain becomes soul crushing after a while.

Of course that statement is made by someone who's had every negative tick in the box when applying for housing in the past. Under 18, bare minimum income because I chose to return to highschool education instead of sticking it out on minimum wage misery, no one to sign as guarantor on leases, a pet who I would have gladly gone homeless before I agreed to give her up for a home for myself. I'm extremely lucky that ANY landlord gave me the benefit of the doubt back then. Looking back on it, it was a pretty traumatic experience for a young teen to go through even though I just kept trucking even back then haha. And honestly my housing was never REALLY stable until my late 20s as well. So I suppose it's not surprising that I look at home ownership as the gold standard and something to really aspire to, and struggle to understand why someone would feel otherwise.

I'm terrified of the idea of my income just randomly disappearing one day so that's probably why I can't fathom not having the security of a home that isn't debt-laden when I'm unemployed due to age or incapacity. I think my fear of my experience happening to my kids is just as strong as my fear of returning to that experience again myself, so I can't say that it's entirely about them. They're my first thought of course but if I'm honest I'm equally as scared of being out of control of my housing situation as being out of control of theirs.

Brains are weird, huh. 🤣

My retirement plan is to build up this property to be a refuge WTSHTF, providing for my kids and their kids. And the way the world is going, that may not be far away. There will be no retirement then, just hard work surviving for 3 1/2 years. Besides, its fun thinking about the effects of a collapse, whatever brings it about, and trying to out think these Govt turds that are causing it.

Are we safe ? I don't know, but its gunna be interesting finding out who was right.

When we have some spare cash, we invest it in the property, a new water tank, wood heater for a house etc. And if the world is still here in 50 years time, the money invested here will be for our kids futures. It wont be lost or wasted on gym memberships (don't need a gym, I am working out every day just doing the normal things needed to maintain and expand the place).

This is our choice, a lifestyle choice if you like and we love it, and are much healthier for it.






If you have enough money, the rules don't apply to you.

House prices are crazy, my take is the greed gov and town councils. When I first came to Australia purchased a house for 380k, No too long ago, the banked did the usual evaluation to determine if the house was worth the price.  Was told the house is only worth 120k, WHAT??, then was told the property is the other +300k. 
Australia has very low population and massive continent - land should be dirt cheap.   

AirBNB etc is window dressing will make no difference to house prices and availability..  Many of them are holiday houses that are rented out and bring tourism to the area.  The price of land is the elephant is the room, but no one talks about it..  It baffles my brain why land prices so high.......  That is where the real difference is, one can get a house built for 120k but pay for land another story...............................