bug
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Post by bug on Sept 18, 2020 10:43:48 GMT 10
It's an interesting situation. There's little support for them, but the CCP is holding that Indian land and not giving it back. They are continuing their island building and militarization of Spratleys. They are contintuing to get nations to switch recognition from the Republic of China to the CCP.
The CCP is playing the long game and they are winning.
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norseman
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Post by norseman on Sept 18, 2020 10:53:14 GMT 10
It's an interesting situation. There's little support for them, but the CCP is holding that Indian land and not giving it back. They are continuing their island building and militarization of Spratleys. They are contintuing to get nations to switch recognition from the Republic of China to the CCP. The CCP is playing the long game and they are winning. Yes a lot of bullshit emanating from Western Leaders but no real pushback! The Chinese are laughing their arses off! |
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fei
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Post by fei on Sept 19, 2020 13:46:09 GMT 10
It's an interesting situation. There's little support for them, but the CCP is holding that Indian land and not giving it back. They are continuing their island building and militarization of Spratleys. They are contintuing to get nations to switch recognition from the Republic of China to the CCP. The CCP is playing the long game and they are winning. Yes a lot of bullshit emanating from Western Leaders but no real pushback! The Chinese are laughing their arses off! Basically the same situation as the western attitude to various middle eastern despots. We need their oil (or the consumers in China / products from China), so look the other way most of the time. Every so often the pollies make waves and appear to be doing something, but how much of it is of consequence and how much is for show? |
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Post by milspec on Sept 20, 2020 6:25:14 GMT 10
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Post by milspec on Sept 20, 2020 6:52:05 GMT 10
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fei
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Post by fei on Sept 20, 2020 19:24:59 GMT 10
The Indos sunk a Chinese fishing vessel in the same area a few years ago. Will be interesting to see what happens this time. Always wonder how many of these intrusions are for domestic Chinese audiences -- ie. stir up anti-foreign sentiment in China to get people looking away from things closer to home. Was having dinner with friends last night and was surprised that one guy who is usually staunchly supportive of the (Chinese) government, brought up all the things that China has been up to this year and was very annoyed that the "government was stirring up trouble that the ordinary people will have to deal with". |
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Post by Joey on Sept 20, 2020 20:52:21 GMT 10
One wonders if Indo will soon start laying sea mines around the border of their economic zone with only a couple of safe zone in declared shipping channels. That's what I would be looking at doing at this stage considering that the Chinese "coast guard" ships are full size battle ships.
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Post by milspec on Sept 21, 2020 6:23:01 GMT 10
German news outlet DW just published a documentary analysing 3 scenarios of China taking back control of Taiwan. Their worst-case scenario is what I flagged earlier this year aka China taking Taiwan whilst America is distracted with post election turmoil.
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Post by milspec on Sept 21, 2020 6:41:35 GMT 10
One wonders if Indo will soon start laying sea mines around the border of their economic zone with only a couple of safe zone in declared shipping channels. That's what I would be looking at doing at this stage considering that the Chinese "coast guard" ships are full size battle ships. They have 3 of those 10,000 ton displacement coast guard vessels .. our Air Warfare destroyers are approx 7600t by comparison. As per that DW article I just posted, their maritime militia is a really interesting 'force' which potentiallt obscures the line between military and civilian unit . That creates a potential time advantage when it comes to rules of engagement constraining a timely response to acts committed by that maritime militia. Given the short transit time between China & Taiwan, time will be of the essence as they say. |
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bug
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Post by bug on Sept 21, 2020 9:01:45 GMT 10
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bug
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Post by bug on Sept 21, 2020 14:34:24 GMT 10
German news outlet DW just published a documentary analysing 3 scenarios of China taking back control of Taiwan. Their worst-case scenario is what I flagged earlier this year aka China taking Taiwan whilst America is distracted with post election turmoil. Very good documentary and I agree with your conclusion. The crimea example they gave is a great one. There was no 'breakaway province' there. It was an unprovoked invasion of one sovereign European nation by another, but NATO did nothing. The CCP will be well aware of this. |
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norseman
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Post by norseman on Sept 21, 2020 14:56:25 GMT 10
One wonders if Indo will soon start laying sea mines around the border of their economic zone with only a couple of safe zone in declared shipping channels. That's what I would be looking at doing at this stage considering that the Chinese "coast guard" ships are full size battle ships. They have 3 of those 10,000 ton displacement coast guard vessels .. our Air Warfare destroyers are approx 7600t by comparison. As per that DW article I just posted, their maritime militia is a really interesting 'force' which potentiallt obscures the line between military and civilian unit . That creates a potential time advantage when it comes to rules of engagement constraining a timely response to acts committed by that maritime militia. Given the short transit time between China & Taiwan, time will be of the essence as they say. The CCP won't be burdening themselves with Rules of Engagement! |
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bug
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Post by bug on Sept 21, 2020 16:22:26 GMT 10
The CCP already uses 'fishing' boats for military purposes. Loading them up with marines and sending them at the Republic of China from all directions would be a likely part of any attack.
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Post by Joey on Sept 22, 2020 12:16:28 GMT 10
Now China has put Russia offside
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fei
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Post by fei on Sept 22, 2020 22:23:14 GMT 10
War drums are definitely beating now; who knows how much is real and how much is for show though?
Yesterday one of my mates asked in our Aussie chat group if anyone has contingency plans for getting out of China at short notice in case of war. All the usual suspects answered, but most people said he was just being alarmist (same as they did when I warned we would go into lockdown in late January). He reckons our best bet would be an overland convoy into Myanmar (Burma), Laos etc, but I reckon a long line of expats in cars heading out would be stopped pretty early on.
I guess we would be throwing ourselves at the mercy of DFAT, hoping some evacuation plans would be put into action. Would probably end up in detention somewhere instead, with the guards reading out all the inflamed FaceBook posts my mate makes about China.
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dice
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Post by dice on Sept 22, 2020 23:28:23 GMT 10
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bushdoc2
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Post by bushdoc2 on Sept 23, 2020 5:21:27 GMT 10
War drums are definitely beating now; who knows how much is real and how much is for show though? Yesterday one of my mates asked in our Aussie chat group if anyone has contingency plans for getting out of China at short notice in case of war. All the usual suspects answered, but most people said he was just being alarmist (same as they did when I warned we would go into lockdown in late January). He reckons our best bet would be an overland convoy into Myanmar (Burma), Laos etc, but I reckon a long line of expats in cars heading out would be stopped pretty early on. I guess we would be throwing ourselves at the mercy of DFAT, hoping some evacuation plans would be put into action. Would probably end up in detention somewhere instead, with the guards reading out all the inflamed FaceBook posts my mate makes about China. So get out while you can. Same as East Berliners saw the writing on the wall.
Old saying in the stock market: better to get out 10 years too early than 10 minutes too late. |
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Post by spinifex on Sept 23, 2020 6:44:00 GMT 10
100% Bushdoc. When it comes to the risk of being the wrong person in the wrong place at the wrong time ... early movers survive. Late movers not so much.
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bug
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Post by bug on Sept 23, 2020 9:55:21 GMT 10
Best to stay out of CCP territory. Is your career really worth risking your freedom and your life for?
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Post by SA Hunter on Sept 23, 2020 18:59:47 GMT 10
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