China watch.

That's the thing though, Armstrong is predicting based on a computer generated economics model. And extremely GOOD one, for sure. But he's looking at collapse from the economic perspective more so than global conflict. Obviously he throws a few metrics for global conflict INTO his economic approximations, but he's not going the other way around. He wants his results to tell him what happens when the economy collapses, not when a regional war breaks out in Asia. That means that his models are angled from that direction which could lead to a totally different outcome.

His predictions are pretty solid if you look at it through a specific economic lense. But has he specifically modelled what would happen if Pooh Bear declares war in Asia? I suspect only briefly, because that's not the centrepoint for his concern. Economics is. And sure, the global economy is what drives most everything. But a region-based war that the US is only involved in peripherally is far less of a concern for him and the US than it is for us here in Oceania.

Timelines are flexible and ever changing, but I tend to plan for the worst case rather than the best case. Especially when someone in Asia says they want to be ready for war in 2027 compared to someone in America saying that the economy is going to collapse in 2032. The global economy collapsing will be catastrophic. But so will a war in our region that we're likely to be fully invested in while the US is not.