Russia to invade Ukraine

I love the European own goals ... in their rush to shut down sovereign power generation and go green, they made themselves reliant on Russian energy, and now they can't turn off SWIFT to hurt Russia because Europe needs SWIFT to pay for Russian energy supplies even while the war is on.

I wonder if the woke media will report that green blunder for what it really is.

*cough* Or us... *cough*

Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to put us in the world of hurt that Ukraine is in at the moment. But my mind inevitably turns to our own region and the Russian butt-touchers we deal with in our own backyard. How likely is that Tomahawk acquisition will be delayed or even downgraded if America decides it needs to start throwing spears? And the knock on effects of that for us could be disastrous. There's lots of timelines that need to be acted on before our own interests are even likely to be viewed as moderately protected. 

Be careful not to mix the two issues there.

Shutting down their own power generation (particularly Germany's nuclear generators) is silly. Not all european nations are doing this though. Notably the UK is expanding its nuclear energy program. Shutting down reactors isn't "green" at all, as it practically guarrantees that coal and gas will have their lifeline extended further.

Going 'green' means severing any reliance on Russian fossil fuels. The current crisis may serve to accelerate that program. Even in densely populated europe, renewables are still being added at record rates, largely due to their economic advantage.

limited SWIFT and direct actioner against Russia's larges bank now in play..

The world is now in shock over full out invasion and destruction of Ukraine.  Welcome to WW!!!


Swift payments crackdown on Russia edges closer
www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60540903

Moves to shut Russia out of the main global bank payments system have gained ground after Germany's government softened its stance.
Countries including the UK have lobbied for Russia to be blocked from the Swift system, which makes it possible to move money across frontiers.
Now Germany, which opposed the move, has said it favours "targeted and functional" restrictions.
The economy and foreign ministers said they wanted to hit "the right people".
The change of heart opens the way to further economic sanctions against Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine.


In "Devastating" Move, US Weighs Sanctions On Russia's Central Bank As Germany Backs "Targeted" Removal Of Russia From SWIFT
www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/devastating-move-us-weighs-sanctions-russias-central-bank-germany-backs-targeted

I hate to be brutally honest, but most non-MSM is absolutely swarming with incorrect or outright fabricated narrative right now. Russian bots are propagating fake news faster than you can identify that it's fake. Some are really bad and clearly fake, some are really really advanced. 
You're right that MSM is full of it right now. But do NOT assume that any fringe reporting source is correct or not pushing a narrative. If it's real enough for them to believe it they'll report it as true. That doesn't mean they're intentionally trying to lie to you. It just means that at the moment pretty much no one can tell which way is up and which videos are from today or from ages ago.

Social media streams are a better place to start. There's so many of them right now it can be hard to tell what's real and what's not. Someone posting a photo or video could be posting something that's old without knowing that fact. But live streams on Twitch, Youtube or Facebook streams, heck even city skyline streams, can be a better source of information because at least you know there's a better chance that it's actually happening live. Right now. That device is in someone's hands. Obviously be picky and don't assume it's true because there's ways to fake streams as well.

But things that are posted as factual at the moment are as likely to be false as not. TL;DR, don't believe everything you see, even if it's from one of your normally trusted news sources. ESPECIALLY if it's just an opinion piece rather than a facts-based information piece. 

Musk has gotten a starlink network up and running in Ukraine to help combat their lack of connectivity. What does that mean for us? I suspect another increase in cyber attacks against the US in retaliation. That could lead to bleed over for us in some online services.
A lot of Australian corporations use US based cloud services to run their online business and system profiles so I wouldn't be surprised to see an uptick in service outages.

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Never ask a barber if you need a haircut, or a salesman if its a good price.

He can't afford to. He'd be mad to put the bulk of his force in Ukraine. I don't disagree with your comment that he'll escalate, just his method. The next step would be to keep his remaining forces in his own country and use weapons with more devastating effects (ie. nukes). Boots on ground isn't working, and NATO nations are pumping more gear into the Ukrainian supply line.

Logistics have already failed for the Russians. His troops are running out of fuel, and they have no way to get further without more (at this stage). Supply lines have been severely hampered by the Ukrainian military blowing up rail lines and you can't just truck supplies in for a forward attack. It just doesn't work.

Putin's a sociopathic monster, but he's an intelligent one. My money is that if he refuses to back down, he'll keep the rest of his troops in country and try to step up in another way. Any more troops out of his own country weakens his own borders and he won't risk that. He'll start lobbing bigger and bigger weapons from a distance, and trying to get allies to continue sending support. I don't think he'll put any more of his own troops at risk but I don't think he'll have to.

The spoiler to all of this is China. If they decide to get involved in a more tangible way than economic and diplomatic compliance and assistance it could all go to custard. But I still agree with the theory that they won't do so unless they're given 'permission' by a NATO country putting boots on ground rather than just supplying kit.
I think NATO are very aware of that dynamic and will probably do everything possible to avoid any NATO fingers on triggers. Give them the gear, but don't be the ones to put rounds downrange.

Very reminiscent of Soviet tanks in Budapest, only this time they can't hide amongst the communist bloc. If the Ukranians turn this into a guerrilla war, the Russians will be in for a lot of trouble. It's very hard to fight a guerilla foe who looks like you, uses the same weapons and many of whom speak the same language. Russian speaking Ukranians are not the pro-Putin bunch that Putin thinks they are.